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❓ The Biggest Question In Fantasy
Week 7 roundup...
My starting lineup is a game-time decision today…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by LG Channels:
Deciphering the Rams backfield
Morning Download: Niners updates
Bets from the Group Chat: Run. It. Back.
The QB throwing 4 TDs today
Hidden Gems: You can write him off, but he won’t write back
It’s 10/22. Take it away Peter Overzet…
The term “messy backfield" gets tossed around a lot these days, but I’m not sure I’ve seen a messier situation than what’s unfolding with the Los Angeles Rams running backs right now.
With Kyren Williams officially placed on IR, there is massive opportunity up for grabs:
The million-dollar question, of course, is who stands to benefit the most?
The problem is that Sean McVay has given us only a handful of breadcrumbs to decipher the mystery.
Here’s everything we know about this backfield right now and how I’m currently ranking them for fantasy purposes:
#1. Royce Freeman (Week 7 PPR flex play)
There’s a few things that point to Royce Freeman leading the Rams backfield in touches today:
He’s the only back on the roster who is both a veteran and has been on the team (practice squad) for the whole year
Freeman also entered the league with a solid pass-catching profile (he caught 43 balls as a sophomore with the Broncos), which gives him the inside track to playing third downs and flanking Matthew Stafford in pass protection.
📣 Key Quote from McVay: “I have been pleased with Royce. He’s smart, conscientious, he’s been ready for this opportunity.”
#2. Darrell Henderson (Week 7 deep league flex play)
The Rams elevated Darrell Henderson from the practice squad for today’s game, and Adam Schefter reported that he’d split the majority of the workload against the Steelers thanks to his familiarity with the McVay system.
Still, this is a RB we haven’t seen in action since 2022 and who was in the XFL as of a few days ago, so I would not expect much fantasy-relevant production.
📣 Key Quote from McVay: “He’s done a great job of being able to quickly re-acclimate himself back to a lot of the things that we’ve done”
#3. Zach Evans (High upside stash)
While I no longer think Zach Evans will see the most touches in Week 7 (see the quote below), he still represents the most upside over the mid- to long-term.
I think it’s well within the range of outcomes that these veterans with less burst fail to impress over the next week or two, and Evans sees his role grow. If he doesn’t make mistakes and seizes the opportunity, I could see him delivering some usable weeks.
For more thoughts on Evans, check out Dwain’s write-up for him as Tier 5 back in Week 7.
📣 Key Quote from McVay: “Zach is a guy that’s continuing to learn”
#4. Myles Gaskin (Deep league stash)
I actually think Myles Gaskin possesses the skill set most similar to Williams of any back on this roster, but it’s clear McVay needs more time to trust him and he'll likely be inactive today.
📣 Key Quote from McVay: “Being in Minnesota, being in Miami, there is some familiarity and he’s got a skillset that’s intriguing. I liked what I’ve seen from him.”
I’ve seen a lot of people say that they don’t want to touch any of these guys in fantasy because it’s a mess.
Remember: no one is forcing you to start these guys in Week 7 (and I’m not even recommending doing so). But you are doing yourself a disservice not taking stabs on a backfield that is going to be without their bellcow back for the next month.
This Rams backfield was also messy in August…until it wasn’t.
🛠️ Everything you need for Week 7
Read on for more info in the Morning Download on the Niners (CMC and Deebo), Jeff Wilson Jr., and Daniel Jones.
For everything else you need for Week 7—including our Inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates—you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below: (We know you’re debating starting Royce Freeman, and we’re here to help).
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The NFL landscape is constantly changing, with players’ statuses getting frequent updates throughout the week. Unfortunately, that includes Saturday.
If you were doing something better than following the NFL during the weekend – lucky you – let’s get you caught up on everything you might have missed courtesy of Matt LaMarca...
Staying on top of the news is half the battle in the NFL. If you have more information than your leaguemates – and can make more informed decisions – you’re setting yourself up for success.
Let’s dive into three of the biggest developments you may have missed on Saturday.
🚑️ CMC Questionable; Deebo Ruled Out
The biggest news for Week 7 involves the final game of the week. Don’t you hate it when that happens?
At least Samuel has already been ruled out, so getting him out of your lineup is pretty easy. Finding a replacement during “bye-pocalypse” is easier said than done, but it’s better than having to play the waiting game.
Things aren’t as clear for McCaffrey. He was able to get in a limited practice on Saturday, which is a positive indication of his status. However, he didn’t take any contact, instead merely running routes and catching passes.
McCaffrey is the best running back in fantasy, so you have to leave the light on for him if possible. Ideally, you have someone like Jordan Mason or Elijah Mitchell ready to go if he’s ruled out. You could also go with Cam Akers in a worst-case scenario.
Still, the idea of missing out on a week of McCaffrey’s production if he’s ultimately active is too painful to stomach. Be prepared, but unfortunately, you’re just going to have to ride this situation out.
🚑️ Jeff Wilson Jr. Enters the Fray
Raheem Mostert’s stay as the Dolphins’ featured runner may be short-lived. Rookie sensation De’Von Achane remains on the sidelines, but Mostert will have more competition this week in the form of Wilson. He’s been activated from the IR, so he’ll suit up for the first time all season.
Does this have a huge impact in fantasy? Not really. Mostert has already been a dominant fantasy running back despite playing in a timeshare, so he should continue to provide elite production.
However, Wilson does become an interesting punt play if you need some help at RB or flex. He likely won’t command a huge workload in his first game back, but he could handle just enough work to be viable. Dwain McFarland has Wilson ranked as his No. 28 RB for Week 7, making him worthy of some start consideration.
🚑️ Daniel Jones a “Long Shot” to Play
Jones missed Week 6 for the Giants, and ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports it’s unlikely he returns to the lineup vs. the Commanders. We’re already without Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, and C.J. Stroud due to byes, so you can take another potential QB1 off the board for fantasy purposes.
The Giants’ offense looked roughly the same with Tyrod Taylor in place of Jones last week, so you don’t need to ding the Giants’ skill-position players too much. However, with their offensive line still in shambles, Saquon Barkley is the only guy you should feel comfortable starting.
After massively outperforming expectations last season, 2023 is looking like a disaster for Big Blue.
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This is where Geoff elicits as much information as he can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. It’s really a selfish endeavor as he’ll probably be using some of their plays to offset his own losers. Anyways, onto bets he mooched from others Bets from the Group Chat.
Welcome to Week 7 of Bets from the Group Chat. Just like last week, we’ll take the three best bets (decided by me of course) and make a nice three-way community parlay for us to sweat as a group.
We will certainly have some losing weeks as we go, but last week started off hot!
Week 6 recap: +543 ✅
It’s always nice to start with some momentum and this week the parlay will have some fresh faces in it (the pressure is on). The picks for Week 7 are below.
Play to: -2.5 (-115)
Matt was absolutely distraught last week when I left his Seahawks bet out of the group parlay.
My spidey senses were tingling on Joe Burrow, though, and leaving LaMarca out of Week 6 allowed us to cash the first parlay of the year.
But I’d be dumb to leave Matt’s bets out every week. He’s been crushing college football, among other things, and this week he has the same take on the Buccaneers/Falcons game as myself.
Desmond Ridder has not been a good player to back on the road. For his NFL career, he’s 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS (on the road) and, for what it’s worth, he also had a losing ATS record on the road in college (per The Action Network).
The Buccaneers are nowhere near perfect but have a top 12 rush defense and will likely force the Falcons to beat them through the air, a successful formula against the Falcons of late (1-3 in their last four games).
It may be gross but I like the Bucs to win and likely cover this game.
Play to: +135
I admit, I like the Rams vibes, and they have been over-performing, but they’re also just 3-3 SU and have losses against the 49ers and Eagles at home already – two teams with winning records and above-average defenses (in overall DVOA rankings).
The Steelers fit both of those criteria (3-2 and 11th in overall defensive DVOA).
As Freedman pointed out himself, the Steelers are out of a bye and getting healthy.
I am on board with this one.
The Rams have a tough schedule ahead and may be a good target in futures markets after Week 8 but, for now, I don’t think picking against them as favorites (with a top defense on the other side) is a poor idea at all.
Fantasy Life aggregate projection: 16.9 receiving yards
Play to: over 13.5 (-115)
Yes, I am selfishly taking the last spot again. When you hit a Zach Wilson over (that does not involve INTs or soccer moms) you deserve a second act.
This week, I am once again targeting a terrible offense in the AFC East and going with Rhamondre Stevenson to smash in the receiving yards department.
Despite the Patriots’ ineptitude on offense, there is a lot to like about this prop.
Stevenson in Week 6 posted season-highs in route rate (59%) and target share (20%) and this week will be taking on a Bills defense that has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing RBs. It’s worth noting that Stevenson averaged 5.5 rec and 26 receiving yards against Buffalo last year.
Let’s hope for a fast-paced game with plenty of dump-offs.
Buccaneers -2.5 (-115)
Steelers Moneyline (+140)
Stevenson o12.5 receiving yards (-120)
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account!
👀 It might finally be time for this rookie RB to explode. He’s going to get the work today.
🤝 Ask Matthew Berry your fantasy questions in person. Come for the Dollaritas, stay for the Start-Sit advice.
🦅 The Eagles field is getting a facelift. Not too bad.
😬 Will DK Metcalf play? We won’t know until this afternoon.
👋 The QB throwing for 4 TDs today. The chopper has spoken.
🎭️ Wait, Bill Belichick is capable of showing emotion? It would appear so.
🤔 Leonard Fournette could be back soon? You’ll need to watch him play video games for the goods, though.
🍰 Load up on more Week 7 bets? There’s always room for dessert.
✍️ Interesting insight from Michael Thomas. A rare peek behind the curtain.
Everyone knows the best plays. Cooper Kupp, Austin Ekeler, Travis Kelce. But what about the sleepers no one else is on? Those are the guys that can vault you to the top of the leaderboard. In this weekly piece, Pete will go treasure hunting for Hidden Gems that you can draft in Battle Royale contests on Underdog Fantasy and in DFS contests.
This week sets up as one of the lower-scoring weeks in recent memory. We don’t have a single game with a total projected for over 50 points (Chiefs/Chargers has come down to 48) and four games with a total lower than 40.
With the Dolphins, Eagles, and 49ers off the main slate and the Bengals and Cowboys on bye, we are lacking high-end ceiling options in contests this week.
This dynamic makes it even more viable to scroll down in contests and unearth some gems.
As always, the goal of this piece isn’t to select an entire team full of Hidden Gems–that’s a way to light your entry on fire–but rather to give you ideas and levers to pull to ensure that your lineup is unique and has a chance to finish first in large-field contests.
Below, I’ve identified a QB, WR, RB, and TE who are all going undrafted in the majority of contests but could vault you to the top of the leaderboard in Week 7.
As always, special thanks to Chad Maschke’s Battle Royale data for giving us drafted percentage numbers.
💎 QB: Geno Smith (ADP: 34.6)
Geno disappointed in Week 6 vs. the Bengals (threw 2 INTs and went 1/5 in the Red Zone), but there are lots of reasons to get excited about a bounce-back in Week 7.
The biggest reason is the Seahawks returning home to face a porous Cardinals defense that continues to give up big scores to both QBs and WRs.
They are near the bottom of the league in nearly every possible metric:
15.7% Pressure Rate (Last)
0.09 EPA/Play (30th)
0.13 EPA/Pass (29th)
31st in Defense DVOA
Even better, the Seahawks are playing fast, which should give Geno plenty of opportunities to generate big plays.
Despite this sweet setup, Geno is going undrafted in most Battle Royale contests this week while the field is banking on the Seahawks’ points coming via Kenneth Walker (ADP 6.9) and DK Metcalf (ADP 18.2) (who remains questionable for this game).
Both Walker and Metcalf are great plays, but Smith stacks with one (or both) of Tyler Lockett (ADP 31.6) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ADP 36) provide great leverage on the chalkier Seahawks pieces.
I have a hard time remaining unbiased about JSN (my most drafted player in best ball contests over the summer), but things are trending in a very favorable direction and he should have had a TD last week. The big game is coming soon.