✈️ A Big QB Trade Is Imminent

We all need a lawyer who speaks in football metaphors…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by CTRL:

The biggest subplot of the 2024 NFL offseason—the Justin Fields saga—is starting to heat up.

With the franchise holding the No. 1 overall pick, the Bears are expected to select a rookie QB and move on from the Fields era in Chicago.

Which means the big question is where will Fields end up in 2024?

A handful of potential landing spots have been floated over the past month, but the Atlanta Falcons have now emerged as the clear front-runner.

Yesterday, DraftKings Sportsbook moved the odds from -130 to -250 (an implied probability of 71.4%) that he would take his next regular-season snap with the Falcons.

As for what is causing this sudden line movement, look no further than this video posted by Fields’ manager on his Instagram:

Either this manager is having way too much fun engagement farming or Fields to Atlanta is a done deal. Maybe both, but only time will tell.

It’s worth noting that these prop markets are fairly illiquid, which can cause lines to move significantly without much volume.

Still, there is definitely smoke here. Any interest in taking the Falcons at +5000 to win the Super Bowl?

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👋 The Chiefs say bye to a polarizing WR. Don’t cry because it’s over…

🗞️ The latest on Michael Pittman. Another WR not set to hit FA?

😆 The most insane press conference you’ll ever see. This lawyer knows ball.

🔍️ An inside look at Caleb Williams. Get to know the future No. 1 overall pick.

🏃‍♂️ Who will run the fastest 40-yard dash at the combine? Names to know.

🤣 Why the Bills gave up a bunch for Josh Allen. Can’t argue with that.

🏫 NFL Owner Grades. Well, winning the Super Bowl should help?

Forget reality. Let’s dream up the best possible landing spots for free agents. Take it away, Ian…

NFL free agency is a fun time, but let’s face it: Great players seldom enter March completely free to sign with whoever they choose.

Imagining Mike Evans or Tee Higgins in a Chiefs uniform is all good.

What about Baker Mayfield in Las Vegas?

Or Michael Pittman with the Bills?

The possibilities seem endless … until all parties involved are simply franchise-tagged and once again back with their incumbent squads.

Weird things occasionally happen; just realize the track record of players changing teams in free agency is pretty brutal for all parties involved. Good teams generally don’t let good players walk away for nothing.

That said, teams can and will improve their rosters during the month of March, even if their corresponding Super Bowl odds are unlikely to change all that much.

This brings us to today’s goal: Five under-the-radar “dream” free-agent landing spots that help fill key needs for the real-life team involved and present fantasy-friendly opportunities for the free agents in question.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

🔮 WR Curtis Samuel: Buffalo Bills

Samuel is still just 27 years young despite entering the league all the way back in 2017. While the Ohio State product has just one career season with over 1,000 total yards, he’s proven capable of helping an offense in a myriad of ways over the years:

1. Stretching the field. There's high-end speed here (4.31-second 40-yard dash) inside of a small, albeit not tiny frame (5'11, 196 pounds). I maintain Samuel should have had 1,500 yards back in 2019 with competent QB play. He’s caught 25 of 29 deep targets (20-plus yards downfield) that were deemed catchable by PFF over the past five years.

2. Versatile playmaker. There’s just something about the last name Samuel that apparently enables people to play both WR and RB at a high level. Ironically, only Deebo (6.3) has averaged more yards per carry than Curtis (5.9) among all non-QBs with at least 120 rush attempts since the latter playmaker entered the league back in 2017. Arbitrary cutoff aside: Curtis is a legit playmaker as a rusher.

The Bills join the Buccaneers as the only two teams that haven’t used a single day one or two pick on a WR over the past five drafts. There has NOT been an overly reliable secondary option here since John Brown and Cole Beasley got old. Gabe Davis is fine, but his boom-or-bust nature hasn’t led to much consistent production over the years – and reports seem to be hinting at the possibility that his free-agent market could be much larger than expected.

Samuel isn’t about to walk into Buffalo and take over as Josh Allen’s new No. 1 WR, but the walking Swiss army knife is an affordable mid-level option at the position capable of adding a much-needed YAC dimension to a Bills offense whose WRs rank just 29th in yards after the catch per reception over the past three seasons.