👀 BEST DeAndre Hopkins landing spots

Are you a WR that lines up at RB once? Then you’re Deebo Samuel...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:

DeAndre Hopkins has been one of the NFL’s best WRs for the better part of the last decade.

He’s been the WR10 in PPR points per game among all receivers to play at least 16 games from 2013 to 2022. You don’t need more than two hands to count the number of WRs better than Hopkins in the post-Moss era.

While the best days are probably in the rear-view mirror, considering Hopkins turns 31 next week and he posted middling efficiency numbers in 2022 relative to his usual excellence, Nuk’s sudden status as a free agent has still understandably resulted in plenty of reported interest:

1. ESPN’s Adam Schefter narrowed down Hopkins’ list to the Chiefs, Bills, Patriots and Browns, noting that Kansas City makes the most sense.

2. Texans beat writer Brooks Kupena said Hopkins is interested in returning to Houston based on news from “a person with knowledge of the situation.”

3. The Athletic’s Zac Jackson noted: “Deshaun Watson said he regularly talks to Hopkins and has long considered him a brother, so we can assume a private full-court press is taking place.”

Of course, the eventual landing spot will have a big impact on Hopkins’ current WR19 ADP over at Underdog Fantasy.

The following list ranks these five reported landing spots in order of Hopkins’ projected 2023 fantasy upside.

🏹 1. Kansas City Chiefs

The WR room is wide open — and while there isn’t a bigger TE target hog in the league than Travis Kelce — there remains more than enough pass-game volume to go around inside an offense that just led the league in passing yards and TDs.

A middling season wouldn’t make Hopkins the team’s first high-priced free agent to not exactly put up bonkers fantasy numbers (looking at you, Sammy Watkins and Marquez Valdes-Scantling). Still, the partnership with Patrick Mahomes, maybe the best QB … ever, is simply too enticing to rank anywhere but in the top spot.

Projected rank: WR12

🐶 2. Cleveland Browns

The Browns get the second-place nod thanks to Hopkins’ proven production alongside Deshaun Watson.

Consider: Hopkins had a full 56 additional targets than any other player in the league (!) while working with Watson from 2017 to 2020.

While none of the other four options have the same potential for Hopkins to 1.) Immediately work as the offense’s No. 1 pass-game option (with all due respect to Amari Cooper), and 2.) Receive something resembling top-tier QB play, Watson’s on-field performance was rough enough in 2022 to drop Cleveland to second.

Projected rank: WR14

🐃 3. Buffalo Bills

No offense has more expected PPR points per game at WR over the past three seasons. There’s certainly boom upside inside of a pass-happy attack led by Josh freaking Allen.

Of course, Stefon Diggs is the no-doubt No. 1 WR in Buffalo, and the week-to-week passing game floor simply isn’t quite as high as in Kansas City.

Picking between the Browns and Bills is truly difficult; I’m just slightly siding with the idea that Hopkins would have an easier time overtaking Cooper for No. 1 WR duties than Diggs.

Projected rank: WR16

😧 4. New England Patriots

Yes, Hopkins enjoyed some productive years alongside new Patriots OC Bill O’Brien during their time together in Houston.

Also, yes, don’t assume Jones will be O’Brien’s next Watson as opposed to his next Brian Hoyer or Brock Osweiler or Tom Savage or T.J. Yates or Ryan Mallett.

Projected rank: WR27

😬 5. Houston Texans

A reunion would be great news for C.J. Stroud’s early-career development, and no offense has more vacated targets or air yards.

Of course, even the addition of Hopkins would still leave the Texans as a likely bottom-10 scoring offense — something that has not been good to fantasy WRs over the years.

Projected rank: WR29

The pickings are slim when fantasy drafts get to the late rounds. And yet, nailing some of your final draft picks can be the difference between cashing or donating your entry fee. Fantasy Life’s Chris Allen has you covered with some of his favorite late-round targets.

Drafters see the late rounds as a time to throw darts. Or, maybe even as a time to zone out. They already got their studs and made their Week 17 stacks. You won’t find any “What If Mack Hollins Is The Guy You Need” think pieces out there.

But what if a guy like Mack Hollins was the one you needed?

I found all players outperforming their regular-season ADP using Best Ball Mania II and III data. Injuries and trades are a common theme, but there’s an archetype across the skill positions that can help us make better decisions as we close out our drafts.

💪 QBs with Strong Surroundings

🏈 Sam Howell, Commanders (ADP: 212.5)

Howell is one of two QBs with a 1.) Late-round ADP, and 2.) Pair of pass-catchers with top-100 draft value.

Given Howell’s single start last year, I get the skepticism, but his primary duo has the market’s attention:

• Terry McLaurin (WR26): finished fourth in first downs per target and 15th in YPRR across all WRs (min 75 targets)

• Jahan Dotson (WR40): second amongst all rookies in YAC per reception after returning from injury (Weeks 11-18)

Howell has a formidable trio with Curtis Samuel back to man the slot. And the last time Logan Thomas could cobble together a full season (2020), he had the third-highest end-zone target share for all TEs.

But Washington’s weapons can’t be the only catalyst for Howell’s development. That’s where Eric Bienemy makes his mark.

There’s no question Patrick Mahomes is a one-of-one passer in the NFL. However, Andy Reid and Bienemy took the right steps to unleash him on the league. Kansas City was fifth in play-action rate (noted as a “cheat code” in increasing QB efficiency) during Mahomes’ first season as the Chiefs’ starter. They’ve since fallen to 19th as the offense evolved. A similar plan for Howell would make sense to keep him upright and get the ball to his playmakers.

Howell has the on- and off-field infrastructure common to 75% of the QBs to exceed their ADP over the last two seasons (e.g., Bridgewater – 2021, Goff – 2022, Smith – 2022). Plus, the kid can scamper for a score if needed.

With rushing upside and high-end receiving talent, Howell has some appeal in 3-QB builds.

Other Options: Desmond Ridder (206.1)

😴 Forgotten WR3s

Terrace Marshall, Panthers (ADP: 213.9)

It’s hard to argue against someone’s spot on the depth chart when they’ve got highlights like these.

Sure, Laviska Shenault got one long score and rushed in another one a couple of months later. But after the McCaffrey trade, the passing game had targets to spare. And Terrace Marshall, not Shenault, played as the WR2 behind D.J. Moore.

Surprisingly, Marshall spent only 9.0% of his snaps from the slot. After recording a 47.1% interior route rate at LSU, he played as the perimeter WR for the Panthers in ’22. Regardless, he still earned more looks than the former Jaguars’ receiver, while averaging a 12.7-yard target depth.

The Panthers’ passing attack is nebulous. Jonathan Mingo could earn top billing, but Marshall could replicate DJ Chark’s projected role or move back to the inside. Despite the crowded skill group, Marshall has shown the ability to produce ahead of his current ADP.

Other Options: Marvin Jones (208.5), Deonte Harty (211.3), Olamide Zaccheaus (215.9)

Sure, Laviska Shenault got one long score and rushed in another one a couple of months later. But after the McCaffrey trade, the passing game had targets to spare. And Terrace Marshall, not Shenault, played as the WR2 behind D.J. Moore

You can start drafting these late-round targets on Underdog Fantasy, where you can double your first deposit of up to $100 when you sign up with promo code LIFE!

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✅ Scratch “RB getting used out wide” off your offseason bingo card. But seriously: This could be fun.

🔥 Sean Payton had kind words to say about one of his new players. You’ll never guess who he comped to Reggie Bush.

🏥 Always nice when the injury Gods chill out for a change. Please leave this Eagles RB alone (for once).

🦶 Josh McDaniels adds some clarity to his starting QB’s foot injury. I guess this is good news?

😲 Frank Reich wants a “Deebo Samuel” type role for a certain someone. This is peak offseason coach speak right here.

🤩 Ex-Jets WR Elijah Moore is getting acclimated to his new home in Cleveland. Truthers are going to love this report.

😭 The scariest acronym in all of fantasy football: RBBC.

🥱 Tom Brady has an update on his retirement. Hey Tom, we don’t believe you.

🤝 Andy Reid said this young WR has earned the trust of Patrick Mahomes. So you’re telling us there’s a chance. 

Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams over the next two months. Let’s take a look at the Browns, who are looking to field their first top-10 scoring offense since 2007…

🔔🐄 RB

• Nick Chubb (Ian’s RB7)

• Jerome Ford (RB49)

That Chubb guy is pretty special.

“How special, Ian?” Well, only Bo Jackson (5.4) and Jamaal Charles (5.4) have averaged more yards per carry in the Super Bowl era among all RBs with 500-plus career carries.

This graph designates yards after contact per carry and explosive run-play rate over the past four seasons. Further top and to the right means an RB is awesome at both.

Yeah, that’s Chubb all alone up there.

And yet, it’s a minor miracle how well Chubb has performed in fantasy land, considering the extent to which the Browns have refrained from fully featuring him (per PFF):

• 2020: RB28 in expected PPR points per game, RB9 real

• 2021: RB20 expected, RB12 real

• 2022: RB18 expected, RB8 real

It’s no surprise that Chubb ranks first in PPR points above expectation per game (+3.3) at the position since 2020.

Kareem Hunt remains a free agent, and D’Ernest Johnson signed with the Jaguars, meaning Chubb might finally get the sort of three-down role that his extraterrestrial talents deserve.

Chubb ranks inside the NFL’s top-three backs in yards per carry (5.2), yards after contact per carry (3.9) and missed tackles forced per carry (0.25) among 64 backs with 300-plus carries since 2018 (PFF). While one won’t confuse him for Christian McCaffrey in the receiving game, Chubb’s career 5.5% drop rate ranks a respectable 21st among 58 qualified backs.

One of six RBs to post top-12 fantasy finishes in PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022, Chubb is fully deserving of round-two treatment in fantasy drafts of all shapes and sizes.

Fingers crossed that one of the game’s best players at the position is featured as such in 2023 and beyond.

And then there’s second-year RB Jerome Ford. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler wrote the following about Ford back in his ever-excellent 2022 pre-draft “The Beast”:

“A one-year starter at Cincinnati, Ford became the Bearcats’ lead back as a junior in former offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock’s spread RPO offense. The Alabama transfer was a key reason behind Cincinnati’s run to the 2021 College Football Playoffs, leading the AAC in rushing and matching the school record for rushing touchdowns (19) in a season. Ford has the lateral footwork and body strength to keep plays alive, flashing the open-field juice to gash defenses (averaged 6.1 yards per carry in his career). However, his vision and patience lack consistency, and he needs to improve his ball security and blocking to maintain the trust of his coaches. Overall, Ford has room to improve his eyes and timing at the line of scrimmage to be more of a creator, but he has an effective blend of size, strength and speed with upside catching the football. He can provide a punch to an NFL team’s depth chart.”

The Browns only gave Ford eight offensive touches last season, but their aforementioned offseason decisions to not re-sign Hunt or Johnson while also refraining from drafting a single RB speaks volumes to how they feel about the rising second-year back.

Currently getting first RB reps at OTAs and reportedly set for a “much larger role this season”, Ford is one of the best late-round bets out there thanks to his potential to 1.) Siphon away some of Hunt’s leftover fantasy-friendly pass-down work, and 2.) Provide elite handcuff upside should Chubb be forced to miss any time.

Listen to Ian Hartitz & Dwain McFarland argue over the Browns’ fantasy prospects.