🤔 Backfield shakeup coming?

Imagine if NFL coaches knew what fantasy managers know...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Nom Nom:

The Bears are moving to a hot-hand approach at the RB position, according to head coach Matt Eberflus.

If the coach really means it, we could see Khalil Herbert carve out more rushing attempts soon. The second-year back has been electric this season and ranks highly in multiple rushing efficiency metrics out of 44 backs with at least 40 rushing attempts, per PFF.

• Missed tackles forced per attempt: 0.29 (7th)

• Average yards after contact: 4.51 (1st)

• 10-plus yard attempts: 19% (2nd)

• PFF rush grade: 74.3 (19th)

David Montgomery has dominated playing time with a 74% snap share and 59% of the rushing attempts in his four healthy games. While Montgomery hasn't been all bad, he ranks behind Herbert in every metric and his PFF rush grade is alarmingly low.

• Missed tackles forced per attempt: 0.27 (9th)

• Average yards after contact: 3.27 (13th)

• 10-plus yard attempts: 11% (19th)

• PFF rush grade: 56.4 (43rd)

Chicago runs the ball as much as anyone in the NFL, ranking highly in the percentage of rush plays called in trailing (3rd), close (3rd) and leading (1st) game scripts. They rank seventh in non-overtime rushing attempts per game (27.3) despite running the second-fewest overall plays per game (55.8) thanks to this commitment to the run.

Expect Montgomery to keep an edge on passing downs due to Herbert's issues in pass protection (35.3 PFF pass-blocking grade). However, we should expect to see the second-year back more involved on the ground. This news pushes Montgomery down to low-end RB2 territory, and Herbert climbs into the high-end RB3 range and could climb into the driver's seat in the coming weeks.

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Volume is king in fantasy football and sports betting, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Each week, Dwain dives deep into the data, so you don't have to.

Late Waiver Wire Look

😍 WR – Wan’Dale Robinson

Robinson returned to the lineup in Week 6 and posted a juicy 36% TPRR. He was limited to a 35% route participation, but that should expand over the coming weeks.

No one from this Giants receiving corps is demanding targets, so it is wide open for the second-round rookie to go as far as his talent will take him in the target department.

The Giants' offense is only averaging 34.5 dropbacks per game, but Robinson is a stash WR5 that could turn into an upside WR3 as the No. 1 option in a low-talent WR room. The rookie is a priority waiver wire option.

• FAB: 10-20%

📈 RB – Latavius Murray

Murray overtook Melvin Gordon III for the lead early-down role in Week 6. Murray handled 47% of snaps and 68% of the rushing attempts. He also saw some work in LDD situations (27%).

The near 33-year-old back could serve as a fill-in option but doesn’t carry much of a ceiling in a three-way committee in an offense that isn’t scoring TDs.

• FAB: 10-20%

🎉 TE – Greg Dulcich

Dulcich popped the 80% route participation threshold in his first game (81%). He only earned 13% of the targets (3), but he has an opportunity to blossom as the season moves forward.

The Denver offense is an albatross around the rookie’s neck, but the tight end position is as thin as ever, and he carries the allure of unknown upside in the talent department. Treat him as a high-end TE2 with upside.

• FAB: 3-5%

Buy Low

🤑 QB – Kyler Murray

The Cardinals' offense is struggling, and Murray is the No. 7 fantasy QB, averaging 19 points per game. Many are low on the QB after spending a Round 6 selection on him in fantasy drafts, but the underlying data paints a picture of optimism.

Murray is averaging 46.3 dropbacks and 6.3 rushing attempts per game, which puts him in elite historical company. Since 2011, only five QBs have hit those thresholds (minimum 12 games), and they averaged 22.4 fantasy points per game. Three registered 23.5-plus points per game, and only one didn’t register a top-5 finish in points per game (Robert Griffin III in 2013).

The former No. 1 overall NFL draft pick ranks No. 4 in designed rushing attempts at 17%, but his scramble rate is only 4% – a full two percentage points below his career average of 6%. In Week 6, Murray scrambled a season-high 9% of dropbacks. There is room for improvement in Murray’s rushing totals. His career high is 8.3 attempts per game (2020).

He will be without Marquise Brown (foot) for a while, but DeAndre Hopkins returns next week, and the Cardinals added Robbie Anderson. With Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz serving as plus options, Murray still has plenty of weapons.

In a year where the difference between the best QBs and the low-end starters is as large as ever, Murray makes a great buy-low target. His underlying data tells us he has much in common with the elite performers and could provide similar upside. If wrong, we have likely already seen his floor as the QB7, which is likely still a significant upgrade if you are hurting at QB.

Upgrades

📈 WR – Amari Cooper

Cooper has 11 or more targets in three out of the last four games. He saw 12 against the Patriots’ man-heavy unit in Week 6 but was only able to corral four receptions. The veteran’s 28% target share is seven percentage points above his career-high mark. He is averaging 8.8 targets per game, which also tops his previous career-high (8.0).

Since 2011, WRs that average 8.5-plus targets per game score 17.7 fantasy points per game – slightly ahead of Cooper (15.0) in 2022. Despite playing with a journeyman QB in a run-heavy attack, Cooper is a high-end WR2 pushing for low-end WR1 consideration.

📈 WR – Chris Godwin

Godwin is due for an eruption game. He registered a season-high 91% route participation along with a 31% target share in Week 6.

The sixth-year WR has three consecutive top-30 finishes and his YPRR now stands at 2.07 on the season – the best mark on the Buccaneers.

Godwin is a mid-range WR2 moving forward with WR1 upside.

👀 This rookie is already in elite company. We love explosive pass-catching RBs.

✈️ Could this WR be heading for Buffalo? He sure is adamant.

📊 Travis Etienne, Khalil Herbert and Aaron Jones are good. Maybe their coaches will see this.

🏆 A new-look Cardinals offense is coming. Marcas & Dwain break it down on the Fantasy Life Podcast.

❓ This RB has seen a surge in target share. It's good for fantasy players, but is it good for the offense?

😨 Bye weeks are always difficult. This is brutal.

🚀 Two rookie WRs with great usage and efficiency. Alec Pierce is creeping up.

☠️ This CB is a real problem for fantasy WRs. Ask Mike Williams.

🚽 Tom Brady's line has got to step it up. Sounds like things are getting messy.

Each week we'll feature a premiere matchup on the slate and break it down from all angles. Today, Fantasy Life contributor Chris Allen tackles the Week 7 tilt between the Chargers and the Seahawks.

It’s been nearly four years since these two teams have faced each other. Keenan Allen was on his way to his second 1,000-yard campaign. Mike Davis and Chris Carson were splitting Seattle’s backfield. Both offenses had a negative pass rate over expected. So much has changed for both franchises. The biggest turnaround has to be Seattle’s passing game with Geno Smith at the hel

🦅 Seahawks

It’s tough to find a passing metric without Smith near the top of the list. From EPA per dropback to CPOE, he’s top-5 across the board. Smith is even targeting the middle of the field on 50.3% of his attempts, per SIS! A feat his predecessor refuses to match. However, Smith’s overall stats aren’t the only thing fueling his resurgence.

How he’s doing it necessitates another evaluation of his ability as a passer.

In 2021, Seattle’s offense featured deeper targets (9.3 aDOT), a longer time to throw (13th-slowest), and a passer skilled in the mystic arts of evading a pass rush. It worked for about three weeks. This season is a different story.

Smith is fourth in adjusted completion percentage on passes of 2.5 seconds or less, according to PFF. He’s generated more passing yards off play-action than Patrick Mahomes. Josh Allen and Smith have the same number of touchdowns off deep throws. Smith’s even thrived in pressure situations, with the fifth-highest EPA per dropback under duress.

This scheme is what “Russ cooking” meant for Shane Waldron. The same concepts propped up Jared Goff’s numbers in 2019. Smith can keep the offense moving at 39.8 yards per drive (fourth-highest). My only concern is Seattle’s defense and if the Chargers can take advantage.

The Seahawks are bottom-12 in almost every defensive metric. So, on paper, the matchup leans in favor of Los Angeles. But I’ve got questions about their offense—specifically, the lack of aggression.

⚡️ Chargers

Justin Herbert is 28th in air yards per attempt. The quarterback with a howitzer attached to his shoulder has a lower deepball rate than Cooper Rush. Part of the blame falls on Herbert’s shoulder, but the other issue is the playcalling.

The Chargers are fifth in early-down pass rate in neutral situations. Like the Chiefs and Bills, Los Angeles tries to make their later decisions easier by calling efficient plays up front. However, unlike Mahomes or Allen, Herbert has the fourth-lowest aDOT on first down. And, to make matters worse, his 41.7% success rate is worse than Matt Ryan, Daniel Jones, and Goff.

As a result, the Chargers have run more third-down plays than any other team in the league. Luckily, Herbert’s air yards and EPA per dropback are in the Top 10.

But it’s a dangerous way to live, especially with so much vertical talent on the roster.

The Chargers are 22nd in pass block win rate, but Herbert has been elite at managing the pocket with the lowest pressure-to-sack ratio, per PFF.

Seattle managed to rattle Kyler Murray on 34.0% of his dropbacks last week. If the Seahawks manage to keep Herbert on the move, the Chargers will need more than dump-offs to Austin Ekeler to survive.

When it comes to regression, it pays to be ahead of the curve. Each week on Regression Session, Jonathan will give you actionable insights on trends that are unlikely to continue so you can act before your leaguemates.

📈 Positive Regression - Romeo Doubs

Box score watchers may be getting tired of waiting for the Romeo Doubs breakout, but a closer look suggests we shouldn’t lose faith yet. His role in the offense has steadily grown from running a route on about 55% of Aaron Rodgers' dropbacks in the first couple of weeks to nearly 100% route participation since Week 3.

As an every-down player, he has earned a target on 20% of his routes and has seen his aDOT increase significantly, averaging 90 air yards per game over the past three weeks. Despite this role, he has only delivered 97 yards and a touchdown (WR51 in half-PPR) during that time.

This has mostly been due to poor efficiency on his deep targets, which is ironic because Doubs was one of the best deep threats in college football. He has flashed the talent that drew him such high praise in the offseason, so there is good reason to believe he and Rodgers will eventually get on the same page, and when they do, watch out.

We know rookies tend to improve over the course of the season, so betting on one who is already earning a solid target share from the back-to-back MVP seems like a no-brainer.

📉 Negative Regression - Gabe Davis

This one hurts a bit because there are few players more fun to roster in fantasy football than Gabe Davis. However, the WR15 in half-PPR scoring has yet to see more than 6 targets in a game and has run extremely hot on long TDs, which is just screaming for regression to hit.

Playing for the best offense in football gives Davis a great weekly ceiling, but his role does not guarantee any level of consistency. This has been evidenced by his weekly finishes, which have either been top 15 or outside the top 65 WRs in half-PPR scoring.

Coming off of two strong performances, it may seem like Davis is a must-start (after his bye this week, of course), but we should expect plenty of down weeks as well.

Davis remains a valuable fantasy asset capable of delivering week-winning performances, but the underlying usage metrics suggest his production is unlikely to be consistent. If you have the opportunity to trade him for a proven elite option, I would take it.