🙄 More Backfield Changes?

If drafting two first-round QBs guaranteed one stud, it would be worth it...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Noom:

In fantasy football, waiting for a fully developed trend is often wishful thinking. Once the trend is confirmed, it is too late to leverage the information in a meaningful way.

With that in mind, Week 18 presented us with three unexpected data points that beg the question — is this the beginning of a new trend or just an aberration?

🔎 Travis Etienne

In Week 17, we saw Etienne lose snaps to JaMycal Hasty, but it wasn’t alarming in a blowout win over the Texans. However, in a tight must-win contest against the Titans in Week 18, Etienne again saw his role reduced. The former-first rounder played 56% of snaps versus 48% for Hasty.

Since the James Robinson trade, Etienne hasn’t fallen below a 70% snap share excluding the Week 12 injury-shortened outing and Week 17 win over Houston. He has averaged 72% of rushing attempts over that span, but fell to 50% in Week 18.

Trevor Lawrence accounted for a season-high 29% of designed rushing attempts last weekend, which isn’t likely to stick, so there is upside for Etienne to bounce back in the rushing department. However, his role as an every-down option is in question.

🔎 Chiefs RBs

The Chiefs returned to a three-way backfield in Week 18, with Ronald Jones garnering a season-high 29% snap share and 38% rush share. The veteran RB’s utilization wasn’t limited to late-game opportunities – he split snaps almost evenly with Isiah Pacheco in the first quarter and scored his TD in the second quarter.

Jerick McKinnon saw his lowest rush share (8%) since Week 12. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is also a threat to return after the Chiefs’ bye, which could limit opportunities for McKinnon and Pacheco.

The Chiefs are an offense capable of supporting high-end fantasy production on seemingly low utilization, so we still want exposure in best-ball playoff formats. Still, a three-way committee would undoubtedly be a negative development.

🔎 James Cook

Week 18 marks the first time Cook bested Devin Singletary in snaps (56%) and rushing attempts (41%) in a game.

Singletary still led the way in LDD scenarios (50%) and the two-minute offense (50%), but his fumble in the third quarter might have opened the door for Cook.

We don’t know how Buffalo will divide up their backfield in the playoffs, but there is a chance Cook becomes the lead option in a committee approach.

🏖️ It’s almost Hawaiian shirt season.

Oh ya, do you hear the sweet words of Rupert Holmes wistfully ringing in your ears?

Summer is almost here.

We swear it goes: Super Bowl, St. Patty’s Day, blink, summer.

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Look forward to summer (do not deny yourself a Piña colada).

Volume is king in fantasy football and sports betting, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Each week, Dwain dives deep into the data, so you don't have to.

📈 Upgrades

📈 RB – Kenneth Walker III

Walker tied his season-high snap share (87%) in Week 18 and has a 90% rush share or better in three of his last four games, which led to 12, 26, 23, and 29 rushing attempts. In that same time frame, he has also experienced an increased role in the two-minute offense, handling 53% of snaps.

We saw Walker briefly expand his passing-down role earlier this season, but it could stick this time around with Travis Homer placed on IR last week. After a surprising start to the 2022 campaign, the rookie’s TPRR has sagged recently and now rests well below historical RB2 levels at 14%.

The Seahawks will face the best run defense in the NFL on Super Wild Card weekend, so it is hard to expect significant immediate returns on Walker with Seattle as 10-point dogs to the 49ers. However, Pete Carroll thinks Walker still has big juice late in the season, and it only takes one big run.

Walker’s utilization regains RB1 status and his 2023 outlook is bright. This weekend’s outlook isn’t as rosy, but the matchup could provide a contrarian DFS play with 20-plus touch potential.

📈 RB – Jeff Wilson Jr.

Wilson has regained the lead in the Dolphins’ backfield over the last three games, with a 63% snap share and 52% rush share. The veteran RB has also delivered a 60% route participation or better in three straight games thanks to taking on the lead role in long-down-distance and two-minute situations.

Miami has oscillated back and forth between Wilson and Raheem Mostert over the last two months, creating a confusing situation to decipher. However, Mostert broke his thumb in Week 18, and his status is in doubt for Super Wild Card Weekend, which could provide additional clarity.

Wilson once again profiles as a low-end RB2 which upgrades to high-end RB2 territory if Mostert doesn’t play against Buffalo.

📈 WR – Keenan Allen

Allen finished as the top WR with 30.2 points in the final week of the season, and he is the WR2 since returning in Week 11. He leads the Chargers with 79 targets (26%) over that time frame, and the fantasy production has followed, with WR19, WR21, WR11, WR9, WR19, WR9, WR25, and WR1 finishes.

The 10th-year veteran ranks 12th in PFF receiving grade (84.8), 16th in TPRR (24%), and 14th in YPRR (2.14) versus other WRs with at least 250 routes this season.

Mike Williams suffered a back contusion in Week 18, which puts his status for Saturday’s tilt against the Jaguars in question. We could see additional targets funnel toward Allen in a must-win game if Williams can't go.

Allen’s utilization profiles as a low-end WR1, which makes him a mid-range WR1 in a reduced field for playoff formats.

Downgrades

📉 RB – Joe Mixon

Mixon has come through with RB10 and RB5 finishes in his last two outings, but his role isn’t what it was since returning from injury in Week 14. Before the injury, he averaged 73% of rushing attempts, which has fallen to 57%, and his role in the two-minute offense has disappeared.

Samaje Perine has carved out a significantly larger role after strong performances while Mixon was sidelined.

On a positive note, Mixon averages 6.7 targets since returning, with the Bengals getting him involved in the aerial attack on early downs. Cincinnati is the fourth-best offense at avoiding long-down and distance situations (58%), bolstering Mixon’s early-down role in a way many similar utilization RBs don’t enjoy.

Mixon remains a high-end RB for the fantasy playoffs thanks to the Bengals' offense, but his overall utilization profile mirrors that of an RB2 with the emergence of Perine.

🕵️‍♂️ Should the Bears consider QB at No. 1? The evidence for Fields has flaws. We made our case yesterday. 

💰 He could stay with the Raiders. This is code for pay me, y'all.

 ⭐️ A veteran star WR on the trade block? Might want to let the new GM decide.

📭 Playoff strategy nuggets are incoming. We have you covered.

🙏 Thankfully, the Bills and Bengals took control. Come on, NFL. Really!?!

🤷‍♂️ Seems like a lot for an off-ball LB. But the franchise tag is available for your QB.

🚀 2022 brought us some big-time WR duos. Five were especially good.

✂️ Bad QB play is hard to overcome. It can impact job security.

🏆 Who was your fantasy MVP? Hard to make a case against this group.

Each week of the playoffs, Chris Allen will provide a macro-level breakdown of the Fantasy Life Power Rankings, including where he agrees and disagrees most with the model.

The Power Rankings are built off of an ELO model designed to account for the strength of the schedule by assigning more value to wins over higher-quality opponents and less value to wins over lesser-quality opponents. The margin of victory also matters, with larger wins gaining value.

We don’t need to think through playoff scenarios or what each team needs to get into the dance. The final road to the Super Bowl starts this weekend. We’ve waited all season to see each conference’s best go head-to-head. And, for the most part, we got each conference’s best. But we can still debate which team has the better chance to fight for the Lombardi trophy in February.

To help, our team has developed an ELO model to rank each playoff squad. We’ll update it after each set of games, and I’ll pull out the nuggets worth discussing to frame the next slate. And after taking a long look at the ranks, let’s start with the biggest takeaway from the result.

🔎 Biggest Takeaway: “Starting” QBs Matter

Our ELO model takes the whole season into its calculation. So, late-season changes may not drag the team’s average down. Such is the case for Baltimore and Miami.

Baltimore fans wait on bated breath to see if Lamar Jackson returns to practice in any capacity. Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa’s availability for Sunday isn’t just about his physical health longterm health but the optics around putting him back out there. Regardless, both teams could use their starting quarterbacks out there this week. And it’s not too hard to see why.

Miami ranks 26th in dropback success rate after tough outings from Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson. The once high-flying offense fell to 31.1 yards per drive despite their seasonal average being 35.8. They snapped their five-game losing streak with an 11-6 win over the Jets, but there’s little confidence in the passing game.

Baltimore’s in a similar position.

The Ravens have had the eighth-most explosive plays since Week 13. But 28 of them have been runs. Their tight ends have outperformed their receivers, and Tyler Huntley was the only backup to make it into the league's top half in EPA per play. So, even if Lamar returns, at best, he’ll lift their floor, but the personnel caps their ceiling.

Every team doesn’t have a Brock Purdy waiting on the sidelines to come in for their second injured passer. And most offensive schemes require the most out of their quarterback. Baltimore and Miami made huge strides throughout the season to even get into the playoffs. However, without their starters, a quick exit might be in store for both franchises.

🤨 Vikings at No. 6?!?

To be clear, calling the Vikings overrated doesn’t mean I think they’ll lose. It’s possible. The Giants took them to the brink the last time they faced each other, and Vegas only has them as a field-goal favorite despite being at home.

But let’s look at Minnesota’s season in its entirety.

As mentioned at the top, a team’s weekly ELO score accounts for a victory and its quality. How much a team won by or who they faced forces an adjustment in the calculation. Of course, just winning is fine. It’s how these teams got into the playoffs! But Minnesota’s path looks a bit different than its competitors.

I took the number of times a team got an “adjusted win” (defeated a stronger opponent or won by two or more possessions) and divided it by their win total.

As expected, the cream mostly rose to the top. Every team in the top eight power rankings had an adjusted win rate of over 60.0%. I’ll give Kansas City a pass because they’ve been playing with their food lately, and the Eagles just got Jalen Hurts back. But the Vikings can’t use either excuse.

Minnesota is one of three playoff teams with a negative point differential through the regular season. They’re 11-0 in one-possession games, setting an NFL record. However, their ELO rank relative to the Giants (12th) doesn’t capture how close Sunday’s matchup could be.

Without his starting center, Kirk Cousins averaged -0.32 EPA per play when pressured. For reference, Skylar Thompson had a -0.34 average. With the Giants able to rest their starters in Week 18, the Vikings’ ELO rank doesn’t align with their outlook for the Wildcard Round.

We have two more takeaways for you, but they're too powerful for this newsletter. JK, that was a bad joke. We just don't have room.

When it comes to regression, it pays to be ahead of the curve. Each week on Regression Session, Jonathan will give you actionable insights on trends that are unlikely to continue so you can act before your leaguemates.

📈 Positive Regression - Gabe Davis

The Bills’ second-year WR was considered a breakout candidate but failed to live up to the statistical season that many expected. Despite this, he is still capable of putting up a huge score in any individual week and is due for positive regression based on his role in the offense. Since Week 8, Davis has averaged seven targets per game but has only cleared 50 receiving yards in three of those contests.

Per the PFF Expected Points Model, from Week 8 on, Davis underperformed his expected production in half-point PPR scoring by 3.6 points per game, the most of any WR who played at least 7 games during that stretch.

Given the big-play nature of Davis’ game, it’s not surprising when he has cold stretches, but they shouldn’t cause us to lose faith. He is capable of going nuclear at any time, as we saw in last year’s playoffs.

Finally, Davis has had much better success against man coverage throughout his career and will get to face a Miami team that likes to play man coverage until they are forced to give up on it. I strongly believe Davis will provide some spike-week performances in the playoffs, and there is a good chance we could get one this week against the Dolphins.

📉 Negative Regression - George Kittle

It is hard to find anyone who finished the regular season hotter than George Kittle, who scored seven times over his final four games. Kittle’s emergence coincided with Brock Purdy taking over at QB for the 49ers. There is no doubt the TE will remain one of Purdy’s favorite targets in the red zone, but the return of Deebo Samuel provides more target competition for a player who was already scoring at an unsustainable rate.

Looking at just his yardage totals without the TDs gives a better picture of how volatile his production has been.

In the five games that Purdy has started, Kittle has been held under 30 receiving yards in three of those games. He was bailed out by a touchdown or two in those weeks and then exploded for 93 and 120 yards in the other two outings with Purdy at the helm.

I am a bit nervous calling for negative regression before Kittle faces a Seahawks defense ranked in the bottom half of the league against TEs.

However, Seattle is even worse against opposing running backs, so there is a good chance San Francisco doesn’t need to throw the ball much to win.

Finally, teams will spend a lot of time scouting what has worked for the 49ers since Purdy took over, which will mean scheming to shut down Kittle. As a result, I expect some bust games from him during the playoffs to go along with one or two ceiling performances.