💰 Another WR Domino Falls

Singing “Imagine if we fell out of tune” using auto-tune is art if you think about it…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:

Contract negotiations for top-tier WRs have been a talking point since the new league year began.

From the franchise tag period all the way up to the draft, we’ve seen how teams value their pass-catchers. And not just WR1s.

I mean, sure, Nico Collins got his extension, and the impending deals for Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase will likely rival a small country’s GDP. But WR2s or 1Bs, if you prefer, have also gotten their due, with DeVonta Smith securing the bag in April. Every team recognizes the need for multiple high-quality WRs (unless you’re the Chargers).

The proverbial game of chicken between a player and their front office has everyone on their toes. A new deal doesn’t just have franchise implications. They extend league-wide as the market resets. But luckily for Dolphins fans, they don’t have to worry about a financial standoff for their primary WRs any time soon.

Jaylen Waddle landed a three-year, $84.75M ($76M GTD) extension with the Dolphins. Entering his fourth season, the former sixth-overall pick not only ties himself to Miami through his prime, but his $9.1M cap hit this year gives the team time to push for another Super Bowl run.

Admittedly, Waddle’s junior year doesn’t look good on paper. Marred by injuries, the Alabama product posted career-low totals in every baseline metric from yards to touchdowns. However, with speculation about an extension for Tua Tagovailoa coming, keeping the passing game intact benefits everyone. Well, at least it benefitted Tua:

• Adjusted Yards per Attempt: 7.1 (without Waddle), 8.5 (with Waddle)

• Passing Success Rate: 49.6%, 52.2%

• Pressure-to-Sack Rate: 18.8%, 16.5%

We’re only a season removed from Hill and Waddle ranking first and third in YPRR amongst all WRs. Despite the injuries, Waddle’s 0.27 TPRR is greater than notable WR1s like Collins (0.26), Chris Olave (0.26), and Mike Evans (0.25). Assuming health, Waddle’s ADP at the 2/3 turn looks like a worthwhile bet.

If his own team could make a much more substantial wager on him, so should we.

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☕️ We’ve got all the tea. Should you buy or sell these rumors from NFL OTAs?

🧀 Love is in the air. Packers fantasy football outlook in Year 2 under their new franchise QB.

📈 Which non-playoff teams will outperform this season? Bounceback candidates for 2024.

😬 Darren Waller drops a music video. Don’t quit your day job, man.

🤩 Chicago goes Hollywood. More clips of Caleb and Odunze? Yes, please!

🐐 Agent 89 working with Giants WRs. Love to see it.

🔥 Brian Thomas Jr. connecting with his QB. What a duo.

👀 Jayden Reed is the next Randall Cobb? I’m listening…

The Eliminator contest is an exciting new format on Underdog Fantasy. Today, Pete explains how to attack it…

I love drafting best ball teams, but the sweat doesn't really kick in until the final weeks of the regular season. That's when we start to agonize about how many teams we can squeak into the fantasy playoff sprint and chase down life-changing money.

But that's not the case with The Eliminator, Underdog Fantasy's new best ball format that first hit the scene in 2023.

With the Eliminator, not only do you get the same enjoyment of drafting a best ball team, but you also get a weekly "cutline" sweat. 

In this piece, I'm going to walk through the Eliminator's unique contest structure and how it differs from traditional best ball formats, why it makes drafters prioritize floor over ceiling, why bye weeks are a critical piece of the puzzle, and how, shockingly, Week 17 is still all that matters.

🧐 Chasing Floor, Not Ceiling

In a contest like Best Ball Mania, we are almost exclusively attacking "ceiling" because the payout structure demands it. We do this in a variety of ways:

• Targeting lots of rookies who can wildly outperform their draft capital

• Utilizing antifragile strategies like Zero RB to create "super teams"

• Correlating our teams in Week 16 & Week 17 to embrace variance and help us score the most points in the most important weeks

But in The Eliminator, we are looking to attack "floor" and embrace balance. It's not that we don't want to still target players with upside, but more so that we want to hit singles and doubles as opposed to swinging for the fences.

It's a similar mentality to playing a cash game "double up" contest in DFS vs. a tournament. In a large-field DFS tournament, all of the prizes go to a handful of top teams, so it's savvy to embrace risk, knowing that's where all of the money is won.

But in a double-up contest with 100 entries where half the players double their money, there is no difference in finishing 1st or 49th. In that scenario, you aren't looking to take on risk. You are simply trying to avoid mistakes and put together a team that projects for the most possible points.

In a lot of ways, the Eliminator is a "keep it simple, stupid" contest.

Here are a few ways to achieve balance and draft optimal teams for the contest:

• Lean into 3-QB and 3-TE builds. While I love rolling 2-QB and 2-TE teams in typical best ball contests and utilizing the extra bullets on RBs or WRs, I prefer to go the opposite direction in the Eliminator. Having trios at the onesie positions gives you the best opportunity to avoid zeros in a given week and cover any bye-week issues that could sink your team. Because of this, I recommend not paying premium prices for the Elite QBs. One of the biggest selling points of Elite QBs is then only needing two total, but I think that's sub-optimal in this format.

• "Boring" players are on the menu. If you're like me, you are wired to chase upside and breakout profiles. But that kind of drafting isn't rewarded in this format. I rarely take Diontae Johnson in BBM because I have concerns about the ceiling, but he jumps off the page in this format because you know he's going to be a steady target earner. 

• Be careful with boom/bust profiles. On the flip side, we want to be careful with boom/bust profiles at expensive costs. A player like George Pickens–who can disappear for stretches–is far less valuable than he is in BBM where his 40+ point ceiling can single-handedly win you a week. In this format, we care more about consistent median outcomes than random ceiling outcomes.