🚀 The Alpha WR Set To Dominate In 2022

Just because the city booed Santa Claus doesn't mean you should avoid them in fantasy...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:

There's "too many mouths to feed" is a common thing you'll hear when people discuss offenses for fantasy.

Drafters often shy away from these crowded situations when I think we should actually be targeting them aggressively. The uncertainty doesn't mean there isn't upside, and we often are getting a massive discount to take the leap of faith.

When there's clarity on a situation, say the Bengals offense, the market responds accordingly–Ja'Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, and Tee Higgins all go in the first 25 picks in Underdog Drafts, for example.

But how about a team like the Philadelphia Eagles? Question marks and messy depth charts have pushed all of their skill position players down draft boards in a way that I don't think accurately reflects the upside of this offense:

• A.J. Brown (ADP: 25.5) - He's changing teams and now has more competition for targets!

• Jalen Hurts (ADP: 63.5) - He sucks! He can't throw the ball!

• DeVonta Smith (ADP: 69) - He's a twig and now also a WR2!

• Miles Sanders (ADP: 80) - He's never emerged from a committee!

A lot of those concerns are valid on the surface, but we also need to be cognizant of upside scenarios. What if the Eagles pass more in 2022? What if Sanders gets his wish and they lean on him more? What if AJB is a grown ass man? Actually, we know that last one is true already.

But the point is that these players are all talented and have the athletic profiles to put up a massive season. In today's newsletter, we'll make the case for why the Eagles are undervalued, specifically the aforementioned GAM, AJB.

And if this illustration from Sam Holt doesn't get you jacked up to draft Eagles, then you are beyond saving:

We've been teasing our new site all week, so might as well keep it rolling...

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With Reception Perception, Matt Harmon studies the film on WRs, tracks and interprets the data, and then delivers the goods. Today he is swinging by the Fantasy Life offices to get us hyped on WR, A.J. Brown. Take it away, Matt...

The Eagles made an aggressive move to trade for A.J. Brown on draft night and promptly handed him a big contract. It was the finishing move on an offense brimming with intriguing talents. The Eagles know what Reception Perception knows: Brown has the talent to potentially be a Top-5 player at the position.

Brown’s excellent route-running and separation sneak up on you. He’s now cleared 78% success rate vs. man coverage in multiple seasons. The list of players to do that besides Brown: Michael Thomas, Allen Robinson, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, Antonio Brown, and Odell Beckham.

Brown’s 98th percentile success rate vs. press coverage shows just what a devastating player he is off the line. It’s a truly special result. If Brown ever hikes that zone success rate up a few more percentage points, RP will be ready to put him among the game’s elite.

A player with Brown’s physical nature and dimensions blasting man and press coverage at this rate are terrifying. He is as difficult a receiver to shut down as there is in the NFL right now.

The idea of pairing Brown with a player like DeVonta Smith is just so much fun, much less the idea of taking Jalen Reagor’s targets and giving them to someone of Brown’s caliber.

Brown and Smith both show the ability to demolish man coverage and separate at all levels of the field. The icing on the cake is that Brown thrives in some of the areas Smith lacked as a rookie and obviously brings a totally different frame.

Smith was far from poor against press, not even close, but Brown has been the superior player there. Smith ran out as the Eagles’ X-receiver last year while Brown was the flanker for Tennessee (61.6% off the line) and did more slot work than usual (26.9%). In prior seasons, he was the Titans’ pure X-receiver so 2021 might have been a move to accommodate Julio Jones so the veteran didn’t have to change positions. Smith and Brown could alternate these positions giving both the chance to see some efficient looks.

Smith was also forgettable in contested situations and in the open field. On the other hand, these are highlight areas for A.J. Brown. He hauled in 77.8% of his contested targets and went down on first contact on just 59.4% of his “in space” attempts. Both of these metrics were even better in 2020.

Brown has all the ability in the world to be one of the best receivers in football. He’s already rocketing up the rankings through his first three years.

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In this series, our contributors will disclose their favorite players and tell us why they can't stop drafting them. Today, best ball fiend Jonathan Fuller discloses his love for A.J. Brown...

My Guy: A.J. Brown

Underdog Fantasy ADP: 25.5 (WR11)

Why: All A.J. Brown does is dominate. Since he entered the league in 2019 he has earned a target on 25% of his routes and averaged 10.5 yards per target (per PFF), which are both extremely strong numbers.

Sure, the Eagles attempted fewer passes than any other team in the league last season, but HC Nick Sirianni has made it clear that was by necessity only and plans to make the offense more balanced this season.

It also helps that Brown has never relied on raw volume, seeing just over 100 targets each of the past two seasons, but he gets there on efficiency and by creating big plays after the catch.

Outside of volume, the other criticism for Brown going into this season are the concerns about his health, as he has missed a handful of games over the past two years and had surgery on both of his knees shortly after the season ended. I’m not qualified to give a medical opinion, but the Eagles trading two picks and signing Brown to a massive extension makes me confident that they don’t see these issues as a long-term concern.

Lastly, I just want to be in on this Eagles’ offense. Early reports on Hurts have been positive, the offensive line is an elite unit, and the skill position players are explosive. I expect this offense to be significantly better in 2022 so I want to be drafting the top receiver. Let your leaguemates draft scared while you take one of the highest upside WRs in the NFL in the third round.

Disclosure: Jonathan has been obsessed with A.J. Brown since he was in college and has him on multiple dynasty teams. He is also Jonathan’s most drafted player on Underdog.

The season is fast approaching, which means it is time for us to get to know all of these NFL teams and who we should be drafting and fading after a busy offseason. In today's team preview, our Senior Analyst & Director of Social, Kendall Valenzuela, previews the Seattle Seahawks.

It has been a tough offseason for the Seattle Seahawks (and their fans). They ended the 2021 season with a 7-10 record — the franchise's first losing season since 2011. Then to make matters significantly worse the Seahawks traded QB Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos and put a bow on the most painful offseason by releasing 8-time All-Pro linebacker Bobby Wagner. As an avid Seahawks fan, I will attempt to find the light at the end of the tunnel during this preview, but no promises.

Head coach Pete Carroll is returning for his 13th season with the Seahawks, alongside offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. There is a QB “battle” to be sorted out between the likes of Geno Smith and Drew Lock (sigh) with a pretty lackluster 2022 season on the horizon. Seattle sits at (+1200) to win the NFC West via BetMGM.

⚙️ Offseason changes

• Traded QB Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos for three players, two first-round picks, two second-round picks and a fifth-round pick.

• Acquired QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant and DE Shelby Harris from the Denver Broncos.

• Drafted Michigan State RB Kenneth Walker with the 41st overall pick.

• Signed WR Marquise Goodwin to a one-year, $1.2 million deal.

✨ Team vibes

If the Seahawks aren’t in the Baker Mayfield conversations, then the QB room looks bleak. Smith started three games for Seattle in 2021, which isn’t nearly enough of a sample to use. Lock lost the Denver quarterback battle last season to Teddy Bridgewater. Something to remember is the projected offensive line doesn't have one starter who finished in the top 50 of Pro Football Focus' grades at his position last season.

DK Metcalf is still an elite talent waiting for his new deal. The duo of Walker and Rashaad Penny could be fun, but only time will tell. I’m still holding out hope — Pete Carroll has found ways to win for many years, but it's hard to ignore the part Wilson played in that success.

🎯Draft targets

• DK Metcalf (Underdog ADP: 49)

• Kenneth Walker (Underdog ADP: 91.1)

• Tyler Lockett (Underdog ADP: 92.9)

• Noah Fant (Underdog ADP: 172.1)

👋Draft fades

• Geno Smith (Underdog ADP: FREE)

• Drew Lock (Underdog ADP: FREE)