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Week 10 Is Here, It’s Time To Nail Your Starts and Sits

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About Last Night …

Monday Night Football at Jerry World is a spectacle, though not because no curtains are needed after sunset. The Cardinals came to play, with Jacoby Brissett subbing for Kyler Murray en route to a 27-17 victory over the Cowboys. Brissett further established his connection with Arizona’s top two pass catchers. Here are some highlights:

• That Brissett-MHJ connection was good for 7-96-1. Kyler who?

• Brissett was a good fill-in, scoring once and passing for 261-2-0.

• We can get used to Trey McBride scoring four times in the last three games.

• Nice heave from Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb.

• An off night for Dak is 250 passing yards and a TD to, sigh, Ryan Flournoy.

  IS MHJ’S UR SCORE ON THE RISE?

Editors’ Picks

Week 9 is in the books. Who’s ready to look toward Week 10? Get a head start with some of the latest Fantasy Life content to come through the Week 10 pipeline …

The #1 Utilization Takeaway From Week 9 Is …

Rico Dowdle moves into mid-range RB1 territory.

The Panthers coaching staff handed the backfield over to Dowdle in Week 9 with a 74% snap share after toying around with a two-way committee in the previous two games with Chuba Hubbard. Dowdle rewarded their decision with 141 total yards and 2 TDs as Carolina upset Green Bay on the road.

In three games as the lead back for the Panthers, Dowdle has been a high-end RB1, averaging a sizzling 31.5 points. His worst performance in those games was a whopping 28.1 points. Over those three games, he has an average Utilization Score of 92, collecting 173 yards and a TD per game on the ground. He added 32 yards and 0.5 TDs per game receiving.

While maintaining this pace is highly unlikely, Dowdle has plenty of room to give and still finish the season as a mid-range RB1. The Panthers' passing offense is horrific, which will likely eventually bite Dowdle as defenses center their game plans around stopping him. Having said that, the Packers knew that on Sunday, and Dowdle still came through in a big way.

The Panthers' offensive line is PFF's No. 3 graded run-blocking unit (76.7), and Dowdle's underlying data is strong.

• PFF Run Grade: 82.1 (3rd out of 33 backs with 75 attempts)

• Yards per attempt: 5.6 (3rd)

• Yards after contact: 3.80 (4th)

• Yards before contact: 1.80 (5th)

• 10-plus yard attempts: 14.4% (8th)

• Missed tackles forced: 18.3% (19th)

We can look to Dowdle's time as the starter in Dallas last season to help us create a couple of range-of-outcomes scenarios.

» Scenario 1: Dowdle sustains his success as the starter in 2025.

In this scenario, we will use Dowdle's average Utilization Score of 92 from his three games as the starter in Carolina. His comparisons averaged 19.1 points per game, with 92% of them performing as top-12 options.

• RB1 to RB6 performers: 72%

• RB7 to RB12 performers: 20%

• RB13 to RB18 performers: 8%

This is a bullish case for Dowdle, but it also leaves plenty of room for regression when comparing his 31.5 points per game as a starter to the average of 19.1. Still, this points to a top-six campaign the rest of the way—making Dowdle a potential league winner.

» Scenario 2: Dowdle is the starter, but is a blend of 2024 and 2025.

Dowdle started eight games for the Cowboys last year with an average Utilization Score of 77 and 14.8 fantasy points. We can give his three games in 2025 more weight than his eight from last year simply by averaging the two scores. That gives us a Utilization Score of 85, where his historical comparisons averaged 16.4 points and 63% delivered a top-12 season.

• RB1 to RB6 performers: 23%

• RB7 to RB12 performers: 40%

• RB13 to RB18 performers: 30%

• RB19 to RB24 performers: 7%

This scenario represents the bearish case for Dowdle, assuming he holds onto the starting role. While I lean toward Scenario 1, this case acknowledges the wild hot streaks we can see from players over small samples, which the Utilization Score is designed to help us consider. 

Final takeaway: Dowdle offers high-end RB1 upside and provides low-end RB1 potential in a less-than-optimal runout. I view him as a mid-range RB1 moving forward.

Early Week 10 Rankings: A Bear Growls up the Ranks?

Those who had the pleasure to start Kyle Monangai and his 198 scrimmage yards loved how he helped them win more often than not. Does this mean that we’re looking at a full-on takeover in Chicago once D’Andre Swift is healthy? Hold your horses, um Bears, said Ian Hartitz:

“Look, Monangai was already seeing his role ramp up in previous weeks and is clearly in the RB1 conversation for however long D'Andre Swift (groin) is sidelined; I'm just hesitant to assume Swift will be demoted to backup status after this performance. Reminder: Swift averaged 20.5 PPR points per game (RB8 behind Bijan Robinson) in Weeks 6-8 while averaging a robust 6.3 yards per carry. If Monangai is so much better than Swift, how come he wasn't averaging more yards per carry behind the same offensive line against the same defenses in Weeks 1-8?”

Ian has dropped his early rankings for Week 10, and beyond looking at if the Bears have a new Sonic and Knuckles on their hands, he goes by position while highlighting players who are on the rise and especially those who have tempting upcoming schedules.⬇️

Around the Watercooler

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds.

👀 Is Colston Loveland the top pick off the waiver wire?

🤔 Who is the No. 1 in Denver? It is probably not what you think.

🎧️ The Browns make a play calling shift. Interesting.

🤷 Is Caleb Williams good? Or has he just capitalized on two good matchups?

🥼 Holding our breath for this Puka Nacua scan. Stay tuned.

🦅 The Eagles make a move. And the Dolphins tank is on.

🐆 This Panther is on the prowl and is looking like an RB1.

🚑 Another big hit to the Charger O-line.

☝️ So you say there was a question this RB would hold up. He’s tops on this list.