✈️ Aaron Rodgers On The Move?

Yes, if KC loses, we can still call Patrick Mahomes better than Joe Burrow...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Paramount+:

Aaron Rodgers hasn't decided if he is going to play football in 2023, but that hasn't stopped the rumor mill from churning.

🤔 Could Rodgers really be traded?

Last weekend, we learned from Adam Schefter that the possibility of a trade is real. Then on Tuesday, we gained additional context on Rodgers' current deal, which doesn't include a no-trade clause, and that Green Bay is only interested in dealing with AFC teams.

In his regularly scheduled visit on the Pat McAfee Show on Tuesday, Rodgers seemed to open the door for the Packers to move forward without him by stating, "If they feel like it was in the best interests of the team to move forward, so be it." He then went on to say, "I hope there's some gratitude on both sides if that happens."

We don't know for sure what the Packers' price tag will be or what teams will be willing to pay without assurances from Rodgers for a new deal. Peter King recently guessed the 39-year-old would cost two first-rounders.

If the Packers move Rodgers before June 1st, they will take a larger cap hit, but from a draft selection standpoint, there is an advantage. They would know for certain what pick(s) they are acquiring in 2023. For example, you are getting the seventh pick overall if you swing a deal for a first-rounder with the Raiders this season. That could turn into a late first-rounder in 2024 if Las Vegas plays well with Rodgers at the helm.

If Rodgers is on the move, this could be one of the wildest QB offseasons in history. Theoretically, there is a chance we see Rodgers, Tom Brady, Derek Carr and Lamar Jackson wearing different colors in 2023 — which would create massive ripple effects across the fantasy football landscape.

🛬 What would be the best landing spots for Rodgers?

If the Packers are serious about an AFC-only approach, two teams stand out the most.

➡️ Raiders

Las Vegas has two key ingredients that will be needed to make this deal work: available cap space and draft capital. The Raiders project for the ninth-most cap space and own the No. 7 selection in the upcoming draft.

This landing spot would also create a reunion between Davante Adams, securing the WR's status as a high-end option again in 2023. Darren Waller could represent the best TE Rodgers has ever played with and would rank as a high-end TE1 next season. Hunter Renfrow would provide a quality No. 3 option and also get a bump if Rodgers came to town.

The Raiders would provide a healthy upgrade in surrounding talent versus what Rodgers had around him over the last several seasons with the Packers. The veteran QB would slot in as a low-end QB1 with high-end QB1 upside in Sin City.

➡️ Jets

New York currently projects slightly over the salary cap, so they would have work to do in that department. However, they have draft capital and a roster that can compete in the AFC East right now.

The Jets moved on from Matt LaFleur but could be interested in keeping a similar scheme, which could be why they are so interested in Nathaniel Hackett, who spent time with Rodgers in Green Bay. Rodgers still has the mobility to execute an under-center offense with heavy play-action passes and bootleg concepts.

The Jets receiving corps of Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore and Corey Davis is better than Rodgers' 2022 supporting cast in Green Bay.

Wilson flashed elite target-earning prowess as a rookie, with a sizzling 26% target share. If paired with Rodgers, Wilson belongs in the low-end WR1 conversation. That could make him a league winner depending on where his ADP ends up next summer.

Moore faltered in his second season, but the high-end skillset he demonstrated as a rookie shouldn't be forgotten. Rodgers has a history of supporting multiple high-end weapons, and if Moore regains his 2021 swagger, he could surprise with a big rebound season. With Rodgers, Moore would be a WR4 with WR2 potential.

Davis could be the forgotten man, but the former first-rounder is a great second or third option. He might have been the No. 1 receiver in Green Bay at the beginning of last season.

Rodgers would rank as a low-end QB1 with upside if traded to the Jets.

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Volume is king in fantasy football and sports betting, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Each week, Dwain dives deep into the data, so you don't have to.

📈 Upgrades

📈 WR – Kadarius Toney

Travis Kelce posted a massive 35.8 fantasy points on the back of an astounding 17 targets (50%). Despite still being limited in route participation (30%), Toney had the second-most targets at six.

The second-year WR demonstrated an elite ability to demand targets as a rookie on limited routes, and that trend continued in year two with an elite 26% TPRR. Target rates on limited route participation can be tricky, especially when players see a large portion of their targets come on screens and trick or gadget plays around the line of scrimmage.

While Toney benefits from those looks, he has a 22% TPRR over the last two seasons on non-screen/trick play routes. Additionally, he has a 23% TPRR against man coverage, where 92 of 99 routes have been non-gadget plays. Our sample size is small, but the data suggests Toney is more than a gadget player.

Deebo Samuel has made a living off low-ADOT targets as a yards-after-catch threat. Like Samuel, Toney can contribute to the run game. While he doesn’t have the same lower body build as Samuel, the shifty playmaker has eight carries for 96 yards and a TD.

The biggest red flag for the former first-rounder is that he couldn’t carve out a larger role despite the Chiefs’ lack of target-earners behind Kelce. Typically, coaches want their best playmakers on the field and for Justin Watson to take reps ahead of Toney is troubling. However, if that is the case, Toney still has time to correct those issues, and his ceiling is a WR1 if everything clicks into place.

One thing is for certain; Toney is a polarizing player where opinions typically fall to one side or the other.

For now, Toney is a boom-bust WR3 with WR2 upside.

📉Downgrades

WR – Tee Higgins

Higgins’ 19% TPRR and 1.80 YPRR put him in WR3 territory based on data since 2011. He could bounce back with a huge game, but the 2022 season represents a red flag when considering his 2023 outlook.

Brandin Cooks, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Corey Davis are Higgins’ closest career arch comps since the 2011 NFL Draft. Each demonstrated a similar ability to demand targets over the first two seasons but leveled off in Year 3 below 20%.

Cooks has enjoyed multiple seasons averaging 15-plus points per game as a high-end WR2, which would be a nice outcome for Higgins. At the other end of the spectrum, Davis hasn’t played on as many quality offenses or in situations without much target competition as Cooks. Those factors have kept him outside of the WR3 conversation in recent seasons. Higgins could land anywhere in this range, depending on how things shake out in his final contract year in 2023.

Higgins drops to low-end WR2 territory and is toeing the WR3 line.

👀 Monitoring

👀 RB – Elijah Mitchell

Mitchell handled 44% of the 49ers’ rushing attempts in the Divisional Round matchup against the Cowboys, tying his season-high mark. He has accounted for 30% of the team’s rushing attempts in games with Christian McCaffrey, averaging 10.3 per game.

The second-year back is hardly in a high-end utilization role, but San Francisco ranks fifth in rushing attempts in non-overtime and runs the ball above the NFL average in trailing, close, and leading game scripts.

• Trailing by four-plus points: 35% (+3)

• Within three points: 44% (+3)

• Leading by four-plus points: 55% (+4)

This commitment to the ground game and the 49ers’ ability to get into scoring position regularly boosts Mitchell’s outlook despite a limited role. San Francisco’s offense converts 44% of their drives into scores, the second-most in the NFL.

Mitchell is a boom-bust RB2.

🥔 This exchange between two fans is hilarious. LFG, KC Potato Girl!!!

♻️ The Patriots hire a new offensive coordinator. Well, maybe not so new.

🕵️‍♂️ He can't play. But he might have intel.

❓ What were the Cowboys thinking? Seriously, it would be nice to know. 

🥇 Am I going back in or no? Cool, I'll hit a jump-pass TD off my bad ankle...

🤨 An interesting inclusion for Offensive ROY. Does he deserve it?

🐐 The Goat isn't sure about the future. He loves the F-word lately.

🍴 The FEED ME RB ponders his future. He could be willing to take a pay cut.

Each week of the playoffs, Chris Allen will provide a macro-level breakdown of the Fantasy Life Power Rankings, including where he agrees and disagrees most with the model.

The Power Rankings are built off of an ELO model designed to account for the strength of the schedule by assigning more value to wins over higher-quality opponents and less value to wins over lesser-quality opponents. The margin of victory also matters, with larger wins gaining value.

So, here we are. The final four are gearing up for the conference championships, and each team looks like a contender. We didn’t get any upsets. There are no flukes with two games left before the Super Bowl. And, honestly, this feels right.

We’ve been using the ELO model over the last couple of weeks to hone in on the better teams. Minnesota looked more like a pretender for the Wild Card Round after diving into the model, and the 49ers’ defense highlighted on Sunday why an “overrated” label simply doesn’t apply to them. But with four teams left, I took a quick look back at how the models worked out and if we missed anything when evaluating these thrilling playoff matches.

🎯 Hits and Misses

🤖 The Model Tried to Tell Us

Let’s go back a couple of weeks to the Wild Card Round. The Eagles and Chiefs had their byes locked up, but their season-long victories gave us an initial top-five from the ELO model worth remembering.

Some familiar teams on this list! I’ll get to Buffalo’s demise in a bit, but the model had this group as the top tier heading into the playoffs. And hindsight being 20/20, this makes sense. Because while the ranks relied on adjusting wins based on opponent and point differential, two separate lists pointed us to a similar conclusion.

They’re in a different order, but the same group made up the top five in regular-season offensive EPA per play. Despite San Francisco narrowly missing the cut, we see our final crop of squads toward the top in total DVOA. A missed opportunity or a different decision may have swung one matchup, but this week’s output from the model aligns with everything we watched over the weekend.

The league’s best teams are fighting for the championship. Cincinnati’s double-digit win over the Bills pulled them into the top four in average ELO per game. Even if Buffalo had won, we’d interpret the model similarly, given each squad’s average ELO per game. However, some nuance still became a larger factor on Sunday afternoon.

🤓 The Human Element of the Game

The ELO model had Sunday afternoon’s matchup as a tight race. Both teams seemed evenly matched, with the Bills ranked fourth and Cincinnati right behind them, but the results couldn’t be more different.

It’s not that Josh Allen’s -0.09 EPA per attempt on Sunday was his worst performance of the season. It wasn’t. His low point was in Week 9 against the Jets.

Two of his five worst games by EPA have come in the last two weeks. I raised my eyebrow after the Wild Card Round and gave him the benefit of the doubt. He’s Superman. But maybe the Bills just needed Clark Kent.

Full disclosure: I’m a Bengals fan, so I bought into the pre-game hype. Of course, I’m happy with the boxscore, but Allen’s superhero tendencies weren’t something the model (nor I) could take into account. Twenty of his 81 attempts in the playoffs have been 20 or more air yards. Some were game script related. Others highlight his inability to rely on his playmakers outside of Stefon Diggs.

Even with longer down and distance scenarios, Joe Burrow knew how to leverage his personnel in pure passing situations. As a result, the Bills have a bit of soul-searching to do over the offseason. The model won’t capture all the edges of each team, but the playoffs will expose every team’s greatest weakness.

When it comes to regression, it pays to be ahead of the curve. Each week on Regression Session, Jonathan will give you actionable insights on trends that are unlikely to continue so you can act before your leaguemates.

📈 Positive Regression - Jerick McKinnon

The Chiefs survived and advanced despite a first-half injury to star QB Patrick Mahomes. Although he is expected to play this week, Mahomes' mobility will be limited, which could have several impacts on the offense.

For starters, the Chiefs were a top 10 pass rate team in the regular season, but they may just go more run-heavy against the Bengals, which would benefit both Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco. Additionally, if Mahomes is unable to move as effectively, we could see a Chiefs offense that relies heavily on the short passing game and checking the ball down to RBs when he would have scrambled in the past.

McKinnon already saw a season-high in carries last week, but his fantasy value was nonexistent because he wasn’t targeted at all. This was a complete reversal from Weeks 14-18, when he averaged more than 5 targets per game and was very effective as a receiver. With the limitations caused by the injury to their QB, I expect McKinnon to be a much bigger part of the passing game again this week, in addition to a possible boost to his rushing work if the team takes a more run-heavy approach.

📉 Negative Regression - Kenneth Gainwell

Philadelphia backup RBs had quite the week in the Divisional Round, with both Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott scoring. Gainwell in particular, had a huge week, seeing a season-high 13 touches, which he turned into 121 yards. Of those touches, nine came in the second half once the Eagles already had a big lead.

Even with Gainwell handling his largest workload of the season, Miles Sanders still topped this backfield with 17 carries last week. Now in the NFC Championship, the Eagles' backfield has a much tougher matchup against a San Francisco defense that allowed the fewest rushing yards during the regular season and has yet to give up a receiving TD to an opposing RB.

With the more difficult matchup, the Eagles likely won’t have the luxury of running the ball 44 times as they did against the Giants. This will probably come at the expense of touches for Gainwell who should see closer to his season average of five touches. A minimal role against the best defense at defending his position puts Gainwell off the radar for anything other than contrarian play in large DFS contests.