A Word About Stats ...

One of the absolute best people doing this fantasy football thing is my guy, John Laghezza. Not to toot our horn, but we do a pretty awesome start/sit column throughout the season.  Laghezza—that's what I call him, it’s the former athlete in me … we call everyone by their last name or by a nickname. Anyway, he’s up to his eyeballs in statistics and his analysis is based on what the numbers say. 

I love his analysis and all the statistical nuggets packed within it. And to go a step further, there is nothing better than my guy Dwain McFarland's Utilization Report, especially if you haven’t been locked into the entire NFL all season. When the playoffs arrive, there are sure to be teams you’re not familiar with—especially if you’ve taken the advice of the legendary R&B group TLC all season and you stuck “to the rivers and the lakes that you're used to.” Well, in the playoffs, you have to go chasing waterfalls, especially if you are in a Guilloteenie, playing in a DFS contest or just sprinkling a few coins on some of your favorite player props. 

My point here? As much as the stats play a role in what we do … there are times you just have to say “F&$k Those Stats!”

For those who have been locked in all season—the people who watched the rise and subsequent fall of Rico Dowdle, the ones who watched Justin Jefferson implode their fantasy seasons through no real fault of his own, those who reveled in the “Brissett-it and forget it” effect, they know that the statistics rarely account for all the qualitative information that is out there. 

See, stats don't mention things like: 

• This could be the last chance that Brissett gets to start legitimate football games.

• Jefferson was working with quarterbacks incapable of fully trusting him and his abilities to catch passes while covered. 

• How pissed off Dowdle was at his former team that the Panthers forgot how much they paid Chuba Hubbard in the offseason. Dowdle’s crazy fantasy streak started with his game against the Cowboys, but ended because Carolina could not afford to leave Hubbard, a guy they just gave a new contract, on the bench.

What do you do when the statistics don't give you answers, when they don't provide a definitive direction? You don't run and hide; you don't cower … Do you?

I want to preface this by saying I don’t know the answer to this question/conundrum. But it struck me as interesting as I was writing the newsletter.

Drake Maye has been the model of consistency as a passer this season. That's why he’s an MVP candidate. His projected passing yards prop today is currently 220.5 yards.

Well, he has eclipsed that total in every game this season except two. The first was Week 4 against Carolina, and the other was Week 15 against the Bills. Today he’s at home, with his first playoff win under his belt and a full complement of offensive weapons at his disposal. There is no reason to believe that he will not eclipse that passing yards mark once again. 

Or is there?

The Houston Texans come to town touting the best defense in the NFL and the sixth-best defense against the pass. They were also ranked sixth in sacks per game and seventh in sacks percentage. So they are efficient and effective at making life miserable for passers. Only four quarterbacks were able to pass the ball for  221 yards or more against them this season: Josh Allen finished with 253, Matthew Stafford had 245, Justin Herbert threw for 235 and Trevor Lawrence barely eclipsed it with 222 yards. A bunch failed to reach 200 yards. They roll into New England on a high after dismantling Pittsburgh with no defensive players on the injury report. 

Both sides have a statistical foundation to lean on. Maye has thrown for that total or more against some of the best defenses in the league. The Texans have held down the elite passers. 

Now what do you do? If you choose not to stay away, there’s going to be a lot of asking your gut and heart. Good luck, and, most importantly, enjoy the football we have left!