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- A Simple Backfield Becomes Tricky
Tonight we are blessed with a rare TNF game that actually projects for a ton of points (54.5, to be exact).
The start/sits in that game are pretty straightforward. You are playing all of the main pieces, and maybe Isaac TeSlaa if you are suffering from the bye week blues.
One place where things are less straightforward, however, is the Rams backfield.
For better or worse, the Rams see Kyren Williams and Blake Corum as interchangeable. Yes, Williams suffered an ankle injury vs. the Panthers, which led to a little more Corum work, but it’s clear that Mike LaFleur prefers a committee approach.
He told ESPN’s Dan Graziano that they aren’t asking Kyren to carry as much of the load because they want him fresh for the playoffs. It gets worse, though, for Kyren managers:
“He told me that since Williams and Corum are such similar backs and they wear uniform Nos. 23 and 22, sometimes he has to squint from where he is in the coaching box to remind himself which one is in the game and is celebrating the touchdown in the end zone.”
In our early Week 14 ranks, we have Kyren still positioned as a top-10 RB, while Corum is the consensus RB36.
Even with the solid matchup vs. a below-average Cardinals run defense, I’m definitely lower on Kyren than the rest of our crew. I prefer guys like Breece Hall, Quinshon Judkins and RJ Harvey to him.
There’s just a lot of risk for a banged-up, timeshare RB who hemorrhages high-value touches to both Corum and the other goal-line back on the roster (Davante Adams).
A similar mess is unfolding in Carolina—which Dwain outlines here—but we at least don’t have to deal with that until Week 15 …
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Week 14 Rankings: A Veteran QB and a Young RB Rise
It is time to set our fantasy lineups for Week 14, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest risers and fallers in the ranks to help you make those start-sit decisions.
Matthew Stafford is a top-top three fantasy QB in Week 14.
Stafford is the QB7 with 19.5 points per game. He ranks first in passing TDs per game (2.7) and fifth in passing yards (256). The addition of Davante Adams has helped to elevate his game to an elite level.
The Rams score a touchdown on 34% of their drives, tied with the Colts for the NFL lead, with 40% of their drives reaching the red zone. They average the third-most plays inside the five-yard line with 1.8. They throw the ball inside the five 54% of the time, which ranks seventh.
Sean McVay and Stafford are in their bag. The veteran QB has tossed at least two TDs in 10 of 12 games. He has thrown three or more in six games.
The Rams carry the second-highest team total on the slate at 28.5 points, and the Cardinals have boosted opposing QB passing TDs by 0.5 per game over the last four outings—the third-most.
Xfinity Best (ceiling): 23.6
Median: 19.4
Floor: 15.5
Rarely do we have a pocket passer ranked ahead of high-end dual-threat options, but this week that is the case. Stafford is my QB2 against Arizona.
Bucky Irving rejoins the top-12 RBs against the Saints.
Irving returned to the lineup in Week 13 and rewarded fantasy managers with 16.1 points. The second-year back accounted for 79% of the team's rushing attempts, compiling 15 attempts and tacking on two targets.
Compared to his early-season role, Irving's role in the passing game was slightly reduced. Over the first three games, he posted a 63% route participation rate with a 15% target share. Those numbers clocked in at 37% and 8% against the Cardinals.
It remains to be seen whether Irving will eventually take back those passing-down reps, or if the team wants to lighten his workload in an attempt to keep him healthy.
Despite that unknown, we saw Irving smash fantasy box scores with a 45% route participation over the Bucs' final four games in 2024 (including the playoffs). He handled 71% of the rushing attempts and notched an 11% target share over that span, scoring 18.5 fantasy points per game.
Tampa Bay is an 8.5-point favorite over the Saints. That is the largest spread on the slate. Oddsmakers have their team total at 25.5 points—the fourth best. Big spreads with high team totals are historically good to RB1s, y'all.
Xfinity Best (ceiling): 23.9
Median: 15.0
Floor: 11.1
Irving is a mid-range RB1 in Week 14 against New Orleans.
Dwain breaks down all of his Week 14 Rankings below. ⬇️
Fantasy
(Boldly) Predicting Week 14: Chase Brown Runs Wild in Buffalo
Chase Brown's fantasy managers have had a rough year. Their early-round running back started slow, with only a single top-36 fantasy finish over the first month of the season. By the time the calendar flipped to October, Joe Burrow was hurt and the Bengals were starting two rookie guards. All seemed pretty much lost.
But something strange occurred—stranger than Joe Flacco playing out of his ass and talking about how awesome it is to eat alone. Burrow returned from turf toe surgery well ahead of his expected 12-week window, and the Bengals' running game started to gel.
Over the past three weeks, Brown has led the league with 5.5 yards per carry and a 59.6% rushing success rate. The volume was massive for a two-game stretch after Samaje Perine left Week 9 with an injury, with Brown handling an 84% rush share and 16% target share in Weeks 11-12. Perine returned last week and cut into Brown's workload, but the performance still played: 15 carries for 78 yards and seven catches on as many targets for 35 (RB10).
Over the last three weeks, Brown has been the RB8 in PPR scoring—without a single touchdown. These things happen when your target totals look like this over the past month: 7, 4, 8, 14. The passing work in negative game scripts has helped Brown average the seventh-highest expected fantasy points (16.4) in the league this year.
With Burrow back at the helm, Brown looks to be recession-proof. The Bengals visit the Bills on Sunday as 5.5-point underdogs. If they get smashed, he'll rack up receiving work. If Cincinnati stays in the game, they'll be offering a heavy dose of Brown to Buffalo's third-worst unit in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RB rushing. If nothing else, Brown is likely to score, considering the Bills have allowed a league-worst 1.3 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs.
The Bengals disappeared from the NFL's radar for a bit, but Chase Brown quietly became exactly who fantasy managers hoped he would be back in August. Buffalo offers the perfect spot to witness what could have been.
Bold prediction: Chase Brown posts 150 all-purpose yards and a score.
Fantasy
Around the Watercooler
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds. And Happy Thanksgiving!
🔟 Not one, not two, not three, but 10 things to know for Week 14. Ian has you covered.
🙏 If there was ever a time for Justin Jefferson to get right … it’s this week.
🤔 The season’s final bye week is here. How to replace CMC and more absent players.
🚑️ Bad news for Drake London managers. Not ideal.
🔨 Fine, I’ll say it. The Chiefs are screwed.
🏃 Run to your waiver wire … and make sure this man isn’t available.
🤝 Three words … thank you, Jacoby.
🚑 These are the injuries we’re following. Will Justin Herbert play?
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