Don’t be scared of Mark Andrews. One of Ian’s bold predictions this week is Andrews goes nuts with Isaiah Likely ruled out with a hamstring injury. He has a helicopter-worthy forecast for the TE.

The Big Dog is gonna eat. Per Matthew Freedman, Henry has 12 goal-line carries and six TDs inside the five-yard line. He loves Joe Burrow, too.

Start Mike Gesicki. Kendall wrote up Gesicki for her waiver column this week. He’s averaging a “20% target share and 25% air-yard share” in games without Tee Higgins, who is once again expected to miss.

Chase Brown can’t be stopped. Dwain broke down the breakout in this week’s Utilization Report.

Take the over (52.5). Freedman points out how both of these defenses are “vulnerable in exactly the wrong way.”

Grab the Bengals to make the playoffs (-105). Geoff loves the Bengals’ upcoming schedule. Get in now before the odds shrink.

For projections and prop bets for tonight’s game, check out the Watercooler down below.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

1. Dwain’s Week 10 Rankings: Risers, Fallers, and Sicko Starts

2. Watercooler: Rest-of-Season Rankings Updates

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Week 10 Rankings: Risers, Fallers, and Sicko Starts

• by Dwain McFarland

It is time to set our lineups for the week, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest risers and fallers in the Week 10 fantasy football rankings to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.

Risers

Aaron Jones | RB | Vikings

Since the Week 6 bye, Minnesota has turned to Jones as its workhorse. Over that span, his underlying utilization data has been astronomical.

• Snaps: 81% (elite)

• Attempts: 82% (elite)

• Attempts inside the five-yard line: 100% (elite)

• Routes: 64% (great)

• Targets: 11% (good)

• Two-minute offense snaps: 100% (elite)

He has averaged 14.8 fantasy points with an 8.3 Utilization Score. Those are solid, but this man is DUE FOR AN ERUPTION GAME, and the Jaguars might be the team that will set him off. Jacksonville has provided the fourth-best fantasy boost to the running back position at 4.4 points per contest.

A workhorse back on a high-quality offense (sixth-highest team total) as five-point favorites = SMASH PLAY. Jones UPGRADES to mid-range RB1 status.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | Giants

Tracy has held onto the starting role in New York since Devin Singletary's return from injury with a 65% snap share. Over that three-game span, the rookie has a 7.0 Utilization Score, making him one of the biggest Utilization Score movers over the last four weeks.

Historically, backs with similar Utilization Scores have typically finished the season as RB2s in fantasy.

• RB1 to RB12: 22%

• RB13 to RB24: 53%

• RB25 to RB36: 26%

Our rankers have Tracy as a mid-range RB2 this weekend, but there is room for more. The Panthers have sanctioned a league-leading 7.9-point fantasy boost to the RB position.

• Week 1: Alvin Kamara (22 fantasy points)

• Week 2: J.K. Dobbins (20)

• Week 3: Alexander Mattison (13)

• Week 4: Zack Moss (18)

• Week 4: Chase Brown (23)

• Week 5: D'Andre Swift (20)

• Week 5: Roschon Johnson (15)

• Week 6: Bijan Robinson (26)

• Week 6: Tyler Allgeier (18)

• Week 7: Brian Robinson (13 but only 34% of attempts)

• Week 8: Javonte Williams (9)

• Week 9: Alvin Kamara (28)

The Giants are five-point favorites this weekend, and Tracy is probably too low in our ranks.

Tracy UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 status but offers RB1 upside.

Faller

Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | Cardinals

Harrison has a substantial target share (23%) and air yards share (42%) for a rookie, but Arizona's passing attack is stuck in reverse. Kyler Murray is averaging only 199 yards and 1.2 TD passes per contest. Murray has failed to reach 165 yards in four of nine starts, with only two games over 260.

The Bears have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to pass catchers (20.8), but they have been especially tough on wide receivers. Chicago has held the opposing WR position 5.9 points below their season average—-the second-toughest mark in the NFL.

Harrison DOWNGRADES to mid-range WR3 status.

Sicko Start

I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!

Jaylen Warren | RB | Steelers 

Warren is in 7% of starting lineups and is available in 55% of Yahoo leagues.

Finally healthy and operating in an offense without a run-first QB, Warren is climbing the ranks. Warren's opportunities have flourished in two games with Russell Wilson under center.

• Week 7: 15 opportunities (12 attempts and three targets)

• Week 8: 11 opportunities (eight attempts and three targets)

The third-year back has taken the lead in route participation with 48% versus 34% for Najee Harris and sports a 12% target share. The Commanders are the third-highest-scoring team in the NFL, which could force the Steelers to open up their passing attack.

Warren UPGRADES to mid-range RB3 territory but offers RB2 upside.

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

📊 Rest-of-Season rankings update. Waz has you covered.

🤔 Sell high on this productive RB? Depends where your team is at …

⚔️ Week 10 kicks off with a big divisional matchup … projections for Ravens/Bengals.

🏆 Ian, Chris, and Dwain bring you the Mid-Season Fantasy Awards.

💰️ The best prop bets for tonight’s game. We’ve got you covered.

❤️ How do we feel about these Texans uniforms? As long as Nico is back I like ‘em.

🚑️ Keep tabs on Trevor Lawrence. Concerning injury.

🎅 The Saints’ new coach has an incredible nickname. Merry Rizzmas.

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