A QB Flip-Flop Shakes Things Up

Fantasy fallout in Indy ...

Fantasy Life
Nov. 14, 2024
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We are at the point in the season where the rubber meets the road.

There’s no more room for stubbornness or blaming results on a small sample size.

It’s “put up or shut up” time.

The Bears came to this conclusion on Monday and yesterday the Colts realized it was time to waive the white flag on the Joe Flacco experiment.

Peter Overzet

Despite trying to tell us that Flacco was definitely and totally going to start for the rest of the season, Shane Steichen back-tracked and named Anthony Richardson the team’s Week 11 starter (and for the rest of the season).

It’s an embarrassing flip-flop for Steichen, regardless of who was actually pulling the decision strings behind the curtain.

But we can table the conversations about organizational dysfunction for another day. Instead, let’s do some quick hitters on the fantasy fallout …

📈 This is good news for both Richardson (he’s back in the QB2 mix) and Jonathan Taylor. Taylor’s splits with Richardson are much, much better. Both should enjoy a decent matchup vs. a Jets team that just got cooked by Kyler Murray and James Conner.

📉 This is bad news for both Josh Downs and Michael Pittman, who both had much bigger target shares in games with Flacco. It’s more of a neutral move for Alec Pierce and AD Mitchell, who pair better with Richardson’s downfield game.

You can see our full set of ranks on all of the Colts pieces here.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  1. Dwain’s Week 11 Rankings: Risers, Fallers, and Sicko Starts

  2. Watercooler: Rest-of-Season Rankings Updates

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RANKINGS

Week 11 Rankings: Risers, Fallers, and Sicko Starts

  • by Dwain McFarland

It is time to set our lineups for the week, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest risers and fallers in the Week 11 fantasy football rankings to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.

Risers

Cedric Tillman | WR | Browns

Since the departure of Amari Cooper, Tillman has averaged 21.5 fantasy points per game and has an 8.9 Utilization Score. He leads the team in targets, air yards, and endzone targets over that stretch.

Historically, receivers in Tillman's Utilization Score range have been WR1 producers. The Browns' passing game could be highly volatile with Jameis Winston at the helm, but we know the boom-game potential exists.

The Saints have allowed the third-most passing yards per game on the slate (259) and no longer have the services of Marshon Lattimore, who was traded to the Commanders. Tillman is a strong sell-high candidate due to concerns around Winston's long-term role, but the second-year wide receiver is in a good spot in Week 11.

Tillman UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 status and offers high-end WR1 upside.

Kareem Hunt | Chiefs

Isiah Pacheco's 21-day practice window opened, but he is unlikely to play this weekend, per Andy Reid. That leaves the door open for at least one more outing from Hunt, who has an 8.3 Utilization Score and has averaged 17.8 points per game over the last month of football.

Historically, backs with a similar Utilization Score have averaged 16.3 fantasy points and operated as low-end RB1s.

The Bills allow 123 yards per game and have green-lighted the second-highest fantasy boost to the RB position at five points per game. Buffalo also runs the seventh-most zone coverage, which could funnel a few extra targets to the backfield.

Hunt UPGRADES to high-end RB2 territory.

Faller

Tony Pollard | RB | Titans

Pollard tallied his lowest rush share (50%) of the season and his lowest route participation rate (45%) since Week 1. He briefly left with an injury, which could have contributed to his downturn in playing time, but the return of Tyjae Spears was also a factor. Spears took all of the two-minute offense and long-down-and-distance snaps (LDD).

I can't tell you definitively that Pollard's role has changed, but I am playing it safe with many other viable running back options. He isn't a must-bench option, but finding reasons to force him into a lineup is challenging.

  • Titans team total: 16.3 (last)

  • Game spread: seven-point dogs (third-worst)

  • Vikings rush yards allowed: 71 (last)

Pollard DOWNGRADES to borderline RB2 status.

Sicko Start

I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!

Bo Nix | QB | Broncos

Nix is only in 17% of lineups and available in 66% of leagues.

Nix has averaged 19.4 fantasy points over the last four weeks. During that stretch, he averaged 222 yards and 1.3 touchdowns through the air. While those aren't huge numbers, they are enough when you run as often as Nix. The rookie ranks seventh in designed rushing attempt share (12%) and scramble rate (7%) out of all QBs with at least 175 snaps.

The Falcons have conceded the fifth-most points per game to fantasy quarterbacks through the air (15.9), opening the door for Nix to boom as a passer and rusher in Week 11. The last time he did that was against Carolina in Week 8, which he torched for 29.8 fantasy points.

Nix UPGRADES to QB12.

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

📊 Rest-of-Season rankings update. Waz has you covered.

🏴‍☠️ The Raiders are flip-flopping at QB, too. Makes sense.

😬 What to do if you have Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, and more. More instant reactions to A-Rich news.

💥 Upgrades across the board. Your smash matchups of the week for Week 11.

⚔️ Week 11 kicks off with a big divisional matchup … projections for Eagles/Commanders.

🤫 Make sure this RB isn’t on waivers. A deep stash for the playoff weeks.

💰️ The best prop bets for tonight’s game. We’ve got you covered.

😆 A little late for this, Jets. Good luck.

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