Dad, what's "quiet quitting"? Belichick punting on 4th and 7 down 17 in the 4th quarter.
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter, brought to you by Mizzen+Main:
- Keep tabs on these 5 backfields
- The Walkthrough: AJ Brown
- JMToWin's Week 13 DFS Tips
- 4 Key Players on the Fantasy Life Podcast
- Geoff's bets: Chargers, Bengals, and Broncos
- Matthew's Love/Hate for Week 13
- Linda's Kicking It: Top kicker plays
- It's 12/2. Take it away, Peter Overzet
The chaos of the season is starting to kick in, specifically at the RB position. Here are five backfields with injury situations paving the way for sneaky stashes and potential upside scenarios that should have your attention.
🌪️ Niners (Christian McCaffrey)
We got good news out of San Fran yesterday, with CMC having "dodged a bullet" with a knee issue and getting in a solid practice. I'm still interested in stashing the rookies, Tyrion Davis-Price and Jordan Mason, as well as Tevin Coleman (who might get called up from the practice squad).
I prefer TDP, but there's too much upside in this backfield not to take stabs.
Jimmy Garoppolo on Jordan Mason: “He makes it tough on defenses and I think those are body blows that wear on you in the fourth quarter, so it’ll be interesting to see a full game with him.”
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself)
Dec 2, 2022
🌪️ Commanders (Antonio Gibson)
The real question is whether Big Hat Brian Robinson would see more touches. Based on Turner's comments, we should be careful not to double-count his already solid projection vs. the Giants this weekend:
Scott Turner believes Antonio Gibson will be able to play Sunday (he was a DNP today). I asked him how they'd fill the void if AG was out, Turner said it will be a "group effort" and that BRob's workload is already big enough "it'd be hard to give him more."
— Ethan Cadeaux (@Ethan_Cadeaux)
Dec 1, 2022
🌪️ Jets (Michael Carter)
Carter missed practice for the second day in a row with his ankle injury. With James Robinson a healthy scratch last week, UDFA rookie Zonovan Knight could get another crack at leading this backfield vs. the Vikings.
He smashed last week on the ground (14-69) and through the air (3-45). Sure, it was the Bears, and Ty Johnson will earn some pass-catching work, but opportunity is king.
Zonovan Knight took over the early-down work, with James Robinson a healthy scratch.
27% route participation
0% long-down distance
Michael Carter was injured on sixth drive.
Before injury, Knight: 31% snaps, 33% atts
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland)
Nov 28, 2022
🌪️ Chiefs (Jerick McKinnon)
Flying somewhat under the radar is the fact that McKinnon has now missed two straight days of practices with a hamstring injury.
I don't think the Chiefs trust either Isiah Pacheco or Ronald Jones in the passing game, so I'd expect Melvin Gordon to be activated and serve as the third down back if McKinnon is out.
🌪️ Steelers (Najee Harris)
If Harris misses, there would likely be some sort of committee at play with Benny Snell, but Warren has lowkey been the best back on the roster this year.
Throw away the playbook
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The Walkthrough is the most comprehensive matchups column in the fantasy space. Every Friday, Rotoworld's Pat Kerrane outlines all the critical fantasy football context for each and every game. Today, he shares a WR he's excited about for Week 13...
🚀 It's AJ Brown Week
With the Eagles poised to take to the air, AJ Brown looks set for another blowup game—which I'm sure isn't lost on his coaches as Brown returns to take on his former team. Brown has a 28% target share to DeVonta Smith's 26%, so his target lead isn't particularly impressive. But Brown's average target is significantly more valuable than Smith's. Brown has an 11.4 average depth of target, to Smith's 9.1. As a result, Brown has a substantial lead in air yard share, 41% to 31%. But Brown's advantages don't end there.
Brown's rate of middle-of-the-field targets traveling 10+ air yards ranks 78th percentile; Smith is in the 18th percentile. This type of target is extremely valuable. And Brown's high rate of downfield/middle targets helps explain why his ceiling is so high when Philadelphia's offense is clicking downfield.
Brown's ability to draw downfield volume is pretty self-explanatory. He leads the league in ESPN's open score. The question isn't if Brown can beat downfield coverage; he can. Instead, it's if the Eagles' downfield passing attack, which runs through Brown, will get going this week. And this matchup, the Eagles should have no trouble fueling a revenge game spike week.
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Too often, DFS players "play to not lose" — looking for players who have a high floor or who consistently score well rather than focusing on players who might be a bit more volatile…but who have a difference-making ceiling when they hit.
This week, in particular, it will be important to look for players who have a difference-making ceiling, as this week provides us with a different slate than we have seen in a while, with five games that carry an Over/Under of 46.5 or higher, and three games that carry an Over/Under of 50.5 or higher(!).
The Bills and Cowboys are the only marquee offenses missing from the slate, and many of the biggest names in fantasy are not only on this slate but are participating in these high-total games. We'll likely see more elite player production than the typical 2022 Main Slate has given us, and DFS players who are targeting "adequate scores" could get left in the dust.
💡 Slate Highlights
Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase taking on a Kansas City team they went nuclear against last year — with Burrow throwing for 446 yards and four touchdowns and with Chase going 11-266-3 for a legendary fantasy day.
The Chargers (22nd in defensive DVOA) and Raiders (32nd in defensive DVOA) squaring off in a matchup of two teams that are capable of scoring points…and are incapable of stopping anyone defensively.
The Lions (with game totals on the year that include 53 // 58 // 61 // 63 // 73 // 93) are at home against a Jaguars team that is mediocre on defense and capable of putting up points on offense.
The Dolphins are taking on the 49ers in a unique matchup between A) Mike McDaniel and a 49ers defense he knows well, and B) an offense in Miami that capitalizes on "creating space in the defense" and a defense in San Francisco that gave up over 500 yards of offense and 44 total points the last time they faced an offense like this (Kansas City).
On top of all that, we have Deshaun Watson and Nick Chubb taking on the generous defense of the Texans, we have the Vikings' elite pieces at home against the tough defense of the Jets, we have the Eagles' elite pieces at home against the top run defense but beatable pass defense of the Tennessee Titans, and we have Justin Fields potentially on track to return against the poor run defense of the Packers.
"Adequate scores" are not going to get the job done in tournaments this week!
Be "willing to lose" in order to win, and this might just be your weekend.
Code LIFE60 saves 60%(!!!) on rest-of-season access to OWS subscriptions.
🙏🏽 Will Justin Fields be back this week? Good sign.
📚 Everything you need to know about Ja'Marr Chase's injury. Great thread here.
🔑 These 4 players could lead you to a Fantasy Championship. Marcas & Dwain break it down.
🤯 The wild story behind how Patrick Mahomes landed on the Chiefs. He drafted himself?!
🤲 If you could spare a TD for this WR...we're begging you.
🤫 Don't talk shit about Hayden Hurst? That's what he says.
🔎 The Packers are set up for a big offensive performance. Find out why.
In five career meetings, Justin Herbert is 3-2 against the Raiders and has posted an average of 304.5 yards and 2.6 TDs per game. Despite grabbing two wins in a row, Vegas is still a bottom-feeding team defensively, ranking out third last in sacks per game and dead last in defensive pass DVOA.
Josh Jacobs is also questionable (calf) for this game and has logged limited practices over the last two weeks. It’s a vital issue for the Raiders as their offense has averaged just 15.25 points in the four games where Jacobs has taken 17 or fewer carries. Look to the Chargers to cover this week, who still have the more talented squad.
With their four-point win over the Titans, the Bengals moved to 22-10 against the spread (ATS) overall and 15-7 ATS against non-division opponents since the beginning of 2021.
Cincinnati’s playing well in all phases, but it’s their offensive line play that deserves the most praise. The Bengals have allowed just 1.7 sacks per game over the last three weeks, and it’s allowed Joe Burrow to become the league’s ultimate chef.
Protect Joe Burrow for 2.5 seconds he gonna cook🔥
— Browneyes (@LouLouBrowneyes)
Nov 23, 2022
The Chiefs are obviously no pushover but their secondary – which has allowed the seventh most fantasy points to opposing WRs this year – is going to be in a tough spot if they can’t get pressure. The Bengals, as home underdogs need to be backed with vigor this week.
Russell Wilson has had a tough week. He had his birthday party attendance dissected and then was compared to a fictional football player from the movie Draft Day.
Broncos Country has reached defcon...Bo Callahan?
— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL)
Nov 30, 2022
There’s little doubt that Wilson would love to put an end to the barrage of negative press (with a win), and luckily for him, the Ravens are nearly as dysfunctional as Denver. After their defense blew another huge lead, Lamar Jackson went on Twitter and said some nasty stuff to a fan, which led to some speculating as to whether or not he deserved league discipline. The Ravens have not been a team to trust with these big home spreads either, as they’re now just 2-8 ATS as home favorites since the beginning of 2021. It’ll be ugly, but the +8.5 points should be enough for a Denver cover.
- Justin Herbert over 287.5 passing yards -115
- Derrick Henry over 13.5 receiving yards -115
Find out who Matthew is on this week in fantasy! Love/Hate is on NBC Sports Edge, and it's FREE!
It’s #LOVEHATE day! Week 13 is now posted. This one is special to me. And as always it’s 100% free
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Dec 1, 2022
Picking kickers can be a pain, but relax, we have our resident kicking expert Linda to help you make the right choice...
🦵️ Ryan Succop (Linda's Rank: K12)
Succop has been a consistent kicker for the majority of the 2022 season, averaging the second most field goal attempts per game with 2.4. He’s had back-to-back down weeks, but Week 13 presents as a “get right” game of sorts.
Tampa Bay gets New Orleans this week, and the Saints have allowed 8 or more points to the kicker position in every game except one this season. He’s rostered in less than 40% of Yahoo! Leagues and is someone that you should be streaming this weekend.
🦵️ Field Goal Fests
There are two games in particular I think could turn into a field goal shoot-out this weekend.
First, we have the Chargers vs. the Raiders. Both Cameron Dicker and Daniel Carlson are averaging over 2.0 field goal attempts per game, and both teams are allowing over 2.0 field goal attempts to opponents as well.
This matchup has the third-highest over/under for the weekend at 50.5 at BetMGM, and while Carlson likely isn’t available in your leagues, Dicker is only rostered in 32% of Yahoo! Leagues and is firmly in the streaming range this week.
Kansas City vs. Cincinnati is another game that could see multiple field goal attempts by both teams. They have the highest over/under on the slate this weekend, 52.5 at BetMGM, and Harrison Butker and Evan McPherson are both averaging 2.0 or more field goal attempts per game over the last three weeks.
They’re both heavily rostered in leagues, but it never hurts to double-check your waiver wire just in case.
You can find my Week 13 kicker rankings at FantasyLife.com.