🔬 5 Late-Round RB Targets

The NFL loves to camp like Bubba loves shrimp. Rookie minicamp, mandatory minicamp, training camp…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by props.cash: 

NFL teams will soon get up close and personal with their current rosters as they enter the three-phase offseason workout program.

• Rookie minicamp: May 13th to 15th

• Organized team activities (OTAs): Late May through early June

• Mandatory minicamp: Early June

• Training camp: Begins late July and early August

As we progress, we will see free-agent signings and cuts increase as coaching staffs evaluate their depth charts. Of course, performance won’t be the only driver – unfortunately, injuries will also play a role. During these months, names like Leonard Fournette, Kareem Hunt and Ezekiel Elliott should find landing spots.

However, we have some intriguing depth chart situations at RB where Underdog ADP is Round 15 or later, AND we have a clear-cut No. 2 option. While some of these backs could see their value torpedoed by a veteran signing or trade, currently, the price is right.

So, let’s put five late-round gems under the microscope…

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🔬 Tank Bigsby | Jaguars | Round 15

Travis Etienne is the No. 1 in Jacksonville, but the team spent a third-round pick on Bigsby, and he is the favorite to win the No. 2 job. JaMycal Hasty, D’Ernest Johnson, Snoop Conner and Qadree Ollison will battle Bigsby, but none have significant contracts or draft capital backing them up.

Additionally, Etienne struggled in short-yardage situations in 2022. From inside the five-yard line, Etienne only punched in 23% of his attempts, while the NFL average is 39%. Interestingly, GM Trent Baalke praised Bigsby’s physicality between the tackles in his post-draft presser, and there is a chance the rookie creates a rotation with Etienne.

Bigsby has potential stand-alone value as a TD vulture and offers contingency upside if Etienne underwhelms or suffers an injury.

🔬 Tyjae Spears | Titans | Round 16

Derrick Henry will be 29 and has more regular season carries than any projected starter at 1,750. While Spears isn’t likely to overtake Henry, the third-rounder could carve out more work than expected, given where Henry sits on the RB career arc.

Titans’ GM, Ran Carthon, described Spears as a three-down runner who can play in any situation. While Spears’ targets per route run (TPRR) were average in college at 16%, he was efficient with a 21% explosive target rate and 1.42 career yards per route run (YPRR).

Given the Titans' lack of receiving options, Spears has a shot at carving out passing-down work, and if Henry misses time, Spears’ only real competition is last year’s fourth-round pick, Hassan Haskins. In a run-first offense, Spears could flirt with RB1 production as the lead back in an injury scenario.

Spears could offer some spike week production in a Dontrell Hilliard kind of role, but most of his value ties to Henry’s health.

🔬 Gus Edwards | Ravens | Round 17

Edwards agreed to a pay cut in March, so his status for the 2023 season appears safe. Baltimore didn’t address the RB room in the draft or via free agency, leaving Edwards as the favorite for No. 2 duties behind J.K. Dobbins.

Historically, the Ravens have rotated their backs in a run-first approach, but new offensive coordinator Todd Monken could change things up. In addition, the Ravens invested in Odell Beckham Jr. in free agency and drafted Zay Flowers in Round 1 of the NFL Draft – more passing could be in the works.

At a minimum, Edwards is the handcuff to Dobbins. However, he could deliver spike-week production if the Ravens continue their historical rotation.

🔬 Jerome Ford | Browns | Round 18

Kareem Hunt is a free agent, and D’Ernest Johnson signed with the Jaguars, leaving the once-crowded Browns’ backfield wide-open behind Nick Chubb. Despite their riches at the time, Cleveland thought enough of Ford to spend a 2022 fifth-round pick, making him the favorite for the No. 2 role.

Chubb is one of the best rushers in the NFL, and Ford was not a pass-catching option in college (11% TPRR), leaving his path to value most likely as a handcuff. Demetric Felton is the better passing-down option if the Browns give Chubb a breather, but he doesn’t offer the prerequisite size at 190 pounds to handle a heavy rushing workload.

You have to squint to see stand-alone value for Ford, but his path to a significant workload is clean if Chubb goes down.

🔬 Zach Evans | Rams | Round 18

Cam Akers is the incumbent No. 1 option, but he and Sean McVay are on and off again more than Ross and Rachel.

Should McVay decide to take a break from Akers, we could see Evans steal away the coach’s love and affection.

By no means is Evans a lock to make the roster as a Round 6 NFL Draft pick, but he has pedigree as a former five-star recruit. In the post-draft presser, McVay alluded to Evans’ special traits and an ability to work the edges. The data doesn’t disagree.

No other Power Five back in the 2023 class delivered a better explosive rush rate (10-plus yard attempts) than Evans at 21%, and he ranked second behind Bijan Robinson in average yards after contact (4.21).

Kyren Williams will probably snipe passing-down work, but Evans offers the upside to work his way into a rotation for early-down touches. If Akers suffers a setback, Evans could quickly become the top option in LA with high-end RB2 ceiling.

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Welcome, degenerates. We don’t unplug just because the NFL does. You’re reading this newsletter because you’re here for the long haul. “What now, Cooter?” Each week I’ll break down ways to survive the off-season.

❓ Alternative Uses for Your Aaron Rodgers Jerseys

With Aaron Rodgers finally on the move to New York (it only took 71 days, but who’s counting?), you’re likely wondering how you can move on. Well, don’t worry, because we’ve got you covered.

Here are some alternative uses for your Now-Outdated-Green-Bay-Aaron-Rodgers-Jerseys. Oof, that phrase was almost as long as a darkness retreat.

🙈 Blindfold

Not only did Rodgers skip town for greener pastures, but he managed to take Allan Lazard and Randall Cobb to the Jets with him. Not to worry, Packers fans! Take a pair of chicken shears to your old #12 jerseys, and now you’ve got a brand-new blindfold.

Just tie it around your forehead and pull it over your eyes when the games get too tough to watch. You know, like when Rodgers throws a 67-yard TD to Lazard in MetLife Stadium.

😷 Mask

It’s hard to watch an ex thriving after a breakup. While you may not want to be with them, it still hurts to see them happy with someone else. Especially when they weren’t happy with you.

Look, what I’m trying to say is, you’ll be feeling pretty sick when you see Aaron happy in New York. Let’s go ahead and turn that old jersey into a mask and keep everyone around you safe.

Bonus: Your new mask will hide your mouth as you yell obscenities and start to passive-aggressively root for Zach Wilson.

😴 Pillow

It’s been a long time since you’ve known peace.

Between the stalemates and the darkness retreats, being a Green Bay fan during the off-season has been exhausting for several years now. The will-he/won’t-he be playing for us saga sure did a number on you, didn’t it?

Throw in some stuffing and sew those sleeves shut. Close those eyes and start counting Christian Watson TDs. Get some rest, sleepyhead. You’ve earned it.

🙅‍♂️ Nothing

You can always opt to do nothing with the old #12 pullover. Keep it hung up in your closet, collecting dust with the rest of your jerseys.

Absence does make the heart grow fonder. One day, years from now, you’ll look back and laugh. You’ll be thankful for the Hail Marys, 4 NFL MVP awards, 10 Pro Bowl appearances, juicy record against the Bears, and the one Super Bowl win.

Or maybe you won’t. But at least you’ll have a great last-minute Halloween costume if you ever want to dress up like a guy who dressed up like a guy from Con Air.

🤖 Breece Hall’s comeback chances are good? The robots think so.

😱 Which teams have the toughest schedules? Being good Hurts.

💰 Who has the most expensive WR room? Some of these are surprising.

🎵 If this team were a band… their name would be They Might Be Giants.

❓ A surprising depth chart riser. Is he the No. 2 now?

🥳 Looks like we have our NYE plans sorted! Pathetic but true.

🤗 These two look friendly. Rumors be damned!!

💰 Rookie of the year odds are in. Who’s your pick??

🤠 How bout them Cowboys!?!? Ian and Dwain drop the first team preview podcast!

🤑 Mahomes should be on top again soon. Kings stay kings.

Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams over the next two months. Let’s take a look at the Eagles, who are once again loaded with fantasy studs in 2023…

🕵️‍♂️ Rushing Attack

• RB: Rashaad Penny (Ian’s RB28)

• D’Andre Swift (RB29)

• Kenneth Gainwell (RB44)

• Boston Scott (RB78)

Fantasy Life’s fearless leader Matthew Berry noted the following about this backfield in his 23 most interesting things he learned at the combine article:

Since then, the Eagles added Swift and Penny to the equation, who haven’t exactly proved capable of being able to stay healthy over the years.

The idea that certain players are more injury prone than others is largely a myth, but Swift has missed 10 games since entering the league due to groin, shoulder, ankle and head injuries, while Penny’s laundry list of brutal injuries has limited him to playing in just 42 of 82 games since entering the league in 2018.

Still, injuries haven’t prevented both Swift and Penny from demonstrating high-end fantasy ability over the years:

• Swift has posted PPR RB15, RB9, and, most recently, RB15 finishes on a per-game basis over the past three seasons. He’s one of just six RBs to average at least 5.5 yards per touch among 50 qualified players during this span.

• Out of all RBs with at least 300 attempts since 2018, Penny ranks No. 3 in average yards after contact (3.8) behind only Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry. Over that same span, he registered a 10-plus-yard run on a sparkling 15% of attempts, well above the NFL average of 10.5%.

There’s little doubt that either Swift or Penny could put up big-time fantasy numbers as the featured back of the league’s reigning third-ranked scoring offense. Of course, that sentiment is also probably true for Gainwell and even Scott as well: The issue here comes down to projected volume more than anything else.

Dual-threat QBs make for pretty spectacular fantasy assets, but their tendency to 1.) Scramble instead of checking down, and 2.) Factor into the rushing equation near the goal line has made it tough for their offense’s RBs.

This is why offenses like the Eagles, Bills, Seahawks and Ravens rank among the league’s bottom-12 offenses in expected RB PPR points per game despite boasting a top-12 scoring offense over the past three seasons.

Only the Rams, Ravens, Bills, Jets and Chiefs were less willing to give their RB 15-plus touches in a game last season, and Eagles RBs rank just 28th in targets over the past two seasons. Injuries could always force a coaching staff’s hand (see: 2022 Rhamondre Stevenson) but don’t expect any RB involved here to completely take over without multiple parties out of the picture.

Swift’s chance to lock down the (minimal) pass-down work available with explosive upside on the ground earns him a top-30 ranking, but I’m most interested in Penny – especially at his reduced ADP.

He’s the best pure rusher of the group and profiles as the favorite for early-down duties (AKA Miles Sanders’ 279 available touches).