👀 5 Early Best Ball Takeaways

Happy Cinco de Mayo…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:

The best ball streets are alive and popping. Over four percent of Underdog Fantasy’s Best Ball Mania IV contest has already been filled since opening last weekend.

Personally, I dove right into best-ball mode shortly after reading Peter Overzet’s excellent breakdown of this year’s structure strategy and have completed eight drafts to this point.

Here are five early takeaways and things I’ve noticed from the first week of Hot Best Ball Summer.

😱 QBs are FLYING off the board early

Spend 10 minutes inside any fantasy draft, and you will quickly realize:

The public is tired of waiting at QB.

There has usually been one signal-caller who flirts with going inside of Round 2 in recent years, but never as consistently as in 2023. On average, the QB1-6 bucket is off the board a round and a half earlier than last year.

On the one hand, the scoring difference in fantasy points per game between the QB1-6 and QB7-12 buckets indeed reached a decade-high 4.4 points in 2022.

On the other, 2021 marked the lowest difference between the QB1-6 and QB7-12 groups at just 2.2 points.

To be fair, some recency bias might be at hand here. I don’t have a huge problem with going after the true dual-threat aliens at the top of the draft (Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes); these guys are essentially playing a different game and are largely responsible for the ADP push in the first place — the problem is with placing a premium on the pocket passer tiers.

There’s nothing unreasonable with Dak Prescott's (QB10) and Tua Tagovailoa’s (QB11) positional ADP rankings. But should they really be going four to six rounds ahead of guys like Derek Carr, Jordan Love and Matthew Stafford?

Consider taking a page out of Ricky Bobby’s playbook by deploying a “first or last” strategy at QB that focuses less on the middle-class options, who are largely only being pushed up boards because of the public’s infatuation with the position’s top-six players. So far, I’ve preferred rosters that focus on the “last” part of the strategy.

2023: Revenge of the late-round QB?

👀 The RB/WR balance has swung strongly in favor of WRs

There’s certainly plenty of time for things to change, but for now top-12 and top-24 WRs are on pace to be drafted before their RB counterparts for the first time in at least the last five years.

And it really isn’t even close! The following table denotes the cumulative overall ADP from each position’s top-12 and top-24 players (green means picked earlier, white means later).

Don’t hate the player; hate the ADP.

The way to zig at the moment sure seems to be by taking at least a few RBs inside of the first four to five rounds, as the public’s love for early-round WRs is slowly but surely pushing the sort of backs typically inhabiting the RB dead zone into a more acceptable ADP range.

📈 Rookie WR Value

Another reason to feel better about drafting RBs earlier than usual comes down to the reality that there are tons of enticing rookie WRs available late.

Year 1 WRs are prime best ball targets, in particular, because of their tendency to bloom late (AKA in the fantasy playoffs). Plus, it’s rare to see WRs not drafted inside of the first three rounds put up big-time fantasy numbers.

So, focusing on just Day 1 and 2 receivers: The rookies averaged 7.6 PPR points per game during the first eight weeks of the season compared to 8.3 (+0.7) during the last two-plus months of the year.

Overall, 66 of 108 (61%) qualified rookie WRs improved their PPR points per game during the second half of the season. Not too shabby!

Don’t be afraid to throw darts at the following Year 1 receivers priced outside of the top 150 players at Underdog Fantasy. Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed and Cedric Tillman specifically have been targets of mine due to their relatively soft depth-chart competition:

• Chiefs Rashee Rice (WR68, 157.5)

• Colts Josh Downs (WR73, 174.8)

• Broncos Marvin Mims (WR81, 190.5)

• Packers Jayden Reed (WR84, 192.7)

• Texans Nathaniel Dell (WR88, 210)

• Browns Cedric Tillman (WR90, 210.2)

• Raiders Tre Tucker (WR121, 215.8)

• Cardinals Michael Wilson (WR127, 215.8)

👎 Delayed Changes in ADP from The Draft

Value hounds (ruff) might be tempted to take guys like Kenneth Walker, Tyler Lockett, Tyler Allgeier or K.J. Osborn 10-plus spots after their ADP. But even that probably isn’t close to long enough, considering just how badly their fantasy stock was hurt during the draft.

These draft-related ADP drops shouldn’t be an issue for too much longer. Just make sure you stay tuned to this very newsletter for updates and information surrounding trades, injuries and suspensions throughout the summer.

These are the sort of annual events which can boom or doom an ADP in a hurry.

📣 Zero RB Value

The following RBs going in the Round 9 to 11 range are pretty much the last crop of guys who fantasy managers can expect any sort of consistent upside from:

Eagles’ Rashaad Penny (RB34, 108.3): The favorite to take Miles Sanders’ plethora of early-down work, Penny is at a far more reasonable price point to invest in the Eagles’ muddled backfield as opposed to D’Andre Swift (RB20, 61.9).

Broncos’ Samaje Perine (RB38, 115.7): Solidified as Sean Payton’s No. 2 RB after the team declined to add any competition in the draft. Perine could even start the season as the featured back should Javonte Williams’ complicated knee recovery get … more complicated.

Commanders’ Brian Robinson (RB36, 111.8) and Antonio Gibson (RB42, 130.6): Washington RBs have averaged the NFL’s second-most expected PPR points per game since 2020 despite operating in the league’s 27th-ranked scoring offense. This is mostly thanks to pass-game volume, which has mostly gone to current free-agent RB J.D. McKissic (ranked fifth in RB targets since ‘20). It’s unclear if McKissic (neck) will play football in 2023 — let alone for Washington — dwindling down this fantasy-friendly backfield to two (cheap) parties.

Dolphins’ Devon Achane (RB39, 116.9): Potentially the Dolphins starting RB, the uncertainty facing this backfield has left all three parties outside the position’s top-36 options. Achane (pronounced a-chain, I think) has stupid speed and might be more like what head coach Mike McDaniel had in mind for 2022 Week 1 starter Chase Edmonds.

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😲 Don’t dare compare A.J. Brown to a slot WR. Tweet and delete. 

✍️ One of the NFL’s defining offseason storylines is finally over. Pen has been put to paper.

🙌 Lamar Jackson has high expectations for this year’s Ravens offense. HOW MANY YARDS?!

💸 Suddenly, the third-highest paid DT in the NFL: This New York big man got PAID.

💰 One of the NFC’s top young WRs might get paid soon. Get out your checkbook, Jerry.

🤝 Getting fantasy football trades done isn’t always easy. Choose your trade partner.

🥾 NFL schedule release details are starting to trickle out. Get your das boot ready.

📺 A draft stream with former Best Ball Mania champion. Is that something you might be interested in?

Dwain’s top 150 rankings are officially LIVE. Below he highlights six players who he is especially high or low on relative to ADP. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Rankings page for updated ranks from Dwain and the rest of the crew throughout the offseason.

⚡ Austin Ekeler | RB | Chargers

• Dwain’s Rank: 4

• Underdog ADP: 12

Yeah, Ekeler will be 28 this season, but Pick 12 feels disrespectful for a RB with back-to-back top-two finishes. The Chargers' depth chart after their RB1 is a sad state of affairs, and Ekeler has the pass-catching chops in a pass-first attack to hold Father Time at bay for another season.

Other than the one-year difference in their age, Christian McCaffrey and Ekeler are almost identical talent profiles.

McCaffrey has 200 additional career carries on the tires, and his splits with Elijah Mitchell were concerning in 2022 – if we are willing to take CMC at No. 2, Ekeler shouldn’t be No. 12.

🤠 Tony Pollard | RB | Cowboys

• Dwain’s Rank: 11

• Underdog ADP: 23

Pollard offers explosive playmaking ability with a plus profile in the receiving game. Last season he ripped off a 10-plus-yard run on 16% of his attempts (NFL average is 10.5%) and rivaled CMC and Ekeler in YPRR (1.51) and PFF receiving grade (75.7).

Of course, Jerry Jones might like to bring back Ezekiel Elliott on a team-friendly deal so he can dust off all of that unsold merch and feed it to the Cowboys’ faithful for a pretty penny. But don’t let that push you off of Pollard – the market has spoken on Zeke, and Jerry doesn’t have to save face anymore.

This is Pollard’s time, and his underlying profile screams RB1-overall upside.

🦁 Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | Lions

• Dwain’s Rank: 30

• Underdog ADP: 41

OK, so we have a trend developing here. The market is too low on several dual-threat RBs in the first several rounds. The Alabama back had NFL teams frothing at the mouth leading the Lions to pull the trigger at Pick 12.

Gibbs’ closest comps in the Fantasy Life Super Model are none other than CMC and Alvin Kamara. Even if limited to a part-time role with David Montgomery, the explosive pass catcher has a lot of outs.

Giddy up, y’all.

💨 Christian Watson | WR | Packers

• Dwain’s Rank: 34

• Underdog ADP: 46

Let’s get one thing out of the way – Watson isn’t likely to score a TD on 2.6% of his routes again.

However, we shouldn’t get things twisted: Watson is going too far after Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave right now.

Watson’s college profile wasn’t as strong, so he falls a little behind in our Year 2 projection, but he still has great comps after a strong rookie campaign. We have seen 57% of similar players produce at least one WR1 or WR2 finish in the next two seasons, and 70% reached one of those career thresholds.

🐅 Travis Etienne | RB | Jaguars

• Dwain’s Rank: 44

• Underdog ADP: 34

Etienne’s role in the passing game never developed as we hoped in 2022. He was given enough opportunity with a 52% route participation, but he could never capitalize with a sub-RB3 worthy 14% TPRR.

As the lead back on a quality offense, Etienne still has value, but he looks more like an early-down back that shouldn’t be drafted in the same range as the dual-threat options. We could also see rookie Tank Bigsby steal carries inside the five where Etienne struggled.

 📈 Kyle Pitts | TE | Falcons

• Dwain Rank: 49

• Underdog ADP: 60

I feel your pain. Pitts was an absolute bust last season, and many teams that took him were unable to overcome that wasted early-round selection.

However, after letting time heal the wounds and reflecting on Pitts’ underlying data profile, he should be on our draft radar again in 2023.

Arthur Smith is a scary risk factor, but Pitts had the No. 1 TPRR (27%) and explosive target rate (45%) out of all TEs with at least 200 routes. He is a high-end target earner who can add value in the vertical game and after the catch.

It feels like Pitts has been unlucky to this point – eventually, things have to turn in his favor. Right? Right? Right!?!?!?!?!?