👀 4 HUGE ADP Risers

Happy early birthday, America…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by the Fantasy Life Shop:

There are plenty of rational reasons why a fantasy football player’s average draft position (ADP) could dramatically rise from one offseason to the next:

• Vastly improved performance

• Superior offensive environment

• Newfound opportunity on the depth chart

• Random and ultimately dire offseason hype

Avoiding the latter variable and accordingly, the year’s biggest busts are key (obviously). We, the public, are exposed to such little inside information that it’s easy to overweight coach-speak, reports, and/or just expectations in general during the long six months of the offseason.

What follows is a look at four players who have experienced rather huge spikes in ADP from last season compared to right now – and whether or not that jump up the ranks is deserved.

🧀 Packers WR Christian Watson

• 2022 ADP: WR75, pick 157

• 2023: WR20, pick 40

The loss of Aaron Rodgers certainly doesn’t help matters, but the Packers’ lack of serious moves at the position has Watson set up to work as the offense’s rather undisputed No. 1 pass-game option.

This reality makes the rising second-year WR awfully enticing in Round 4, considering he demonstrated some elite target-earning ability as a rookie.

Going alongside fellow young WRs with questionable overall offensive environments like Jerry Jeudy, Drake London and Terry McLaurin, Watson deserves this bump and profiles as a boom-or-bust WR2.

🛬 Jets WR Garrett Wilson

• 2022 ADP: WR55, pick 127

• 2023: WR8, pick 12.6

All Wilson did as a rookie was post an (impressive) 83-1,103-4 receiving line while dealing with one sad excuse for a QB after another. The hope is that Wilson’s WR1 caliber numbers without Zach Wilson under center will be the new normal now that Aaron Rodgers is in town.

Nobody is debating the overall upside of the 2022 NFL Draft’s No. 10 overall pick, but Wilson is now going ahead of longtime alpha WR1 Davante Adams in addition to stud RBs like Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, and Saquon Barkley.

Wilson needs to find some Adams-esque chemistry with Rodgers in a hurry to meet his newfound upside WR1 ADP.

🐶 Browns QB Deshaun Watson

• 2022 ADP: QB29, pick 189

• 2023: QB9, pick 83.5

This ADP hike is simple to explain: Watson was suspended for the first 12 games of 2022, and now he’s not!

Of course, last season’s disastrous performance down the stretch (same EPA per dropback as Zach Wilson, sheesh) is the only reason why Watson is this low in ADP.

And yet, Watson remains one of just five QBs to average 20-plus fantasy points per game in NFL history. If you aren’t drafting one of the early-round dual-threat aliens at the position, the Browns’ franchise QB sure stands out as a middle-round option capable of making up that gap if he regains his pre-2022 form.

🐆 Jaguars TE Evan Engram

• 2022 ADP: TE22, pick 173

• 2023: TE8, pick 97.6

Engram’s bounce-back 2022 campaign featured career-best marks in receptions (73) and receiving yards (766), while he was only one of seven players at the position to catch at least 15 passes that gained 15-plus yards.

The former first-round pick was the latest TE to put up big-time fantasy numbers under Doug Pederson, even managing to flash some pristine route-running ability along the way.

Engram is tentatively expected to play under the franchise tag, although the newfound presence of Calvin Ridley could make it tough for the ex-Giants veteran to see a spike in targets. Fantasy Life Projections currently have a cheaper option in Pat Freiermuth seeing more total pass-game opportunities while scoring more fantasy points next season.

Roster construction is a multi-faceted topic that we often overcomplicate. What’s better? A 2-6-7-3 build or a 3-5-8-2? Should I take my Week 17 correlation stack or address another position of need in the later rounds? The answer to these questions is everyone’s least favorite: it depends. Luckily Dwain is here to break it all down…

💪 TIGHT ENDS

📊 Supply and Demand

The market has cooled on TEs not named Travis Kelce at the top of drafts.

On the one hand, the TE2 to TE5 are bearing the most of the drop in ADP at -12.1 spots.

Some of our most talented TEs in the league, like Mark Andrews, George Kittle and Kyle Pitts, are playing in crowded situations on teams that could center their attacks around the run. Drafters are leery, and rising prices at QB and WR are pushing TEs down.

Of course, drafters were also BURNED badly by Pitts (30 ADP) and Darren Waller (49 ADP), who delivered two bottom advance rates in BBMIII at 9.5% and 10.3% marks, respectively. Recency bias could also be a factor in the TE dip.

On the other hand, TE7 to TE12 is up in price by 1.1 spots, which could be a leak. That is the range of TEs that typically don’t offer much differentiation and are more likely to be replaced by late-round options. One thing is clear about TEs – the blowup seasons come from guys with elite talent, and this draft range is lacking.

🗺️ TE Strategy Overview

It is hard to argue against Kelce in Round 1, given his 30%-plus advance rate in BBMIII and the fact that KC didn’t add anyone to challenge his dominance. However, after that, we should seek exposure to options between Rounds 3 and 7 due to the talent profiles.

Yes, they have offensive environment questions, BUT so do many WRs going in that range. If you are willing to draft Drake London, Terry McLaurin and D.J. Moore, you should be willing to take Pitts in Round 6 and Waller in Round 7.

Once we get past this group in Round 7, I typically tap the breaks on solid-but-not-great talent profiles like Evan Engram and David Njoku. They were two of my most-rostered TEs in 2022, but the market dynamics have changed.

Where they go in drafts, we are trying to beat the WR cliff, upside RBs are abundant, and mid-range QB stacks are hot.

🏢 Building Pillars – Values

Giants TE Darren Waller | Round 7

Waller registered his second-lowest TPRR of his career at 17% last year. However, he battled a hamstring injury that kept him off the field for eight games. In his previous three seasons, his TPRR clocked in at 23%, 27%, and 24%.

Could he be washed at the age of 31? Of course, it is possible, but we have historically seen good TEs play well into their mid-30s.

Given the Giants’ lack of proven target earners, I will bet on Waller bouncing back from an injury-depleted season – especially in Round 7.

Waller is my MOST-ROSTERED TE through 115 Underdog drafts, at 20%. He goes in a range of the draft where he has a chance to out-score the WRs, BUT we get a positional advantage at TE if we are right.

Rams TE Tyler Higbee | Round 13

Higbee had an 84% route participation before offensive line injuries caused him to spend more time staying in to block. After the casualties mounted, his route participation slipped to 63%.

His 24% target rate was borderline elite for the position, and he delivered a 28% target share in his six games with a route participation of over 80%. Four of those games were with Cooper Kupp.

The Rams didn’t invest much in their receiving corps for 2023, but they did add guard Steve Avila out of TCU with their first selection at pick 36. With a healthier unit and reinforcements, Higbee is my favorite to finish second on the team in targets.

You can snag Higbee as the 16th TE off the board on Underdog and land an option with a shot to perform, as well as names like Njoku and Engram, who are going over 40 picks sooner.

Higbee makes a great TE2 and is a good TE1 in builds where you want to go with three.

💰 Draft Capital Guidelines

These are only guidelines, not hard and fast rules. The basic rule of thumb is to spend less later if you spend more early and vice versa. Everything works on a sliding scale.

Drafted TE1 before Round 8

• Draft like you nailed your selections – you have ground to make up at other positions.

• This is likely a two-TE build.

• Don’t take another TE until Round 12 at the earliest; waiting is definitely in play.

• If you take a detour in Rounds 9 to 11 for a TE, it should only be for a stack option with your signal caller OR Pat Freiermuth at a value.

Drafted TE1 after Round 8

• This is an excellent spot to consider a 3X TE build, but you don’t have to draft all of them immediately – you can spread them out over the final seven rounds.

• Take advantage of the R17 and R18 options as your No. 3.

• If you take Engram/Njoku, the 3X TE build is still in play due to their profiles, but given how much you have already spent at TE, the 2X build is also in play if you grab a TE2 like Chiggy Okonkwo/Dalton Schultz/Higbee.

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💉 A PED suspension strikes the Jaguars’ offense. Hopefully, no low-grade beaver tranquilizers were involved. 

🤑 The Patriots continue to give out serious paydays. This stud LB isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. 

🎲 Among new gambling suspensions, one bet on their own team. Probably not the best idea, man.

💰 The Champ is here. Draft w/Pat Kerrane & Ian Hartitz TODAY!

🎤 Longtime world-beating DL J.J. Watt has a new gig. Ehhhh, I don’t know Jim!

😮 Dwain has taken some serious stands in his RB rankings. Tony Pollard is HOW HIGH!? 

🤣 Funniest social media post ever by an athlete? This was a classic.

Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz broke down all 32 NFL teams over the last two months — and this is the final one! Talk about a great day to be great. Anyways, let’s take a look at the Raiders, who are expected to enable multiple high-end fantasy options on offense once again…

🔔🐄 Running backs

• Josh Jacobs (Ian’s RB8)

• Zamir White (RB54)

Nobody had more total yards (2,053) or touches (393) than Jacobs in 2022. He did so in style: Arguably, no RB was better in terms of maximizing broken tackles and yards after contact per carry in 2022.

There’s not much substance to the idea that RBs burn out after receiving a heavy workload the year before, and Jacobs’ 1,072 career NFL carries is still quite a bit below the 1,500 threshold that signifies when fantasy managers should begin to expect a decline in rushing yards over expectation.

It’s not a given that Head Coach Josh McDaniels will hand Jacobs the same sort of ridiculous workload in 2023, although the team’s decision to franchise tag the NFL’s reigning rushing king certainly seems to indicate he’ll once again be one of the league’s more well-fed backs…

… so long as said franchise tag ultimately gets signed.

Cryptic tweets have added fuel to the idea that Jacobs’ threats about holding out for a long-term deal could come to fruition. Still, other reports indicate both sides are motivated to get a deal done before the July 15 deadline.

Ultimately, we’ll know a lot more about the situation by that mid-July deadline – but until proven otherwise, I expect Jacobs to once again handle one of the league’s more fantasy-friendly workloads as the Raiders’ lead RB1.

Only the Titans were more willing to give their lead RB 20- and 25-plus touches last year; I’ve loved the opportunity to draft one of the NFL’s rare remaining true every-down backs at the Round 2-3 turn all offseason.

White shouldn’t be discounted in the final round of fantasy drafts – especially while Jacobs’ franchise tag situation is unresolved. While it’s unlikely the rising second-year talent would get the same sort of workhorse role in the absence of Jacobs, he would profile as the leader for early-down work ahead of more one-dimensional pass-down veterans Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden.

Some offseason hype has already speculated that White could see an expanded role during the 2023 season regardless of Jacobs’ final status. Almost always available in literally the final round of offseason best ball drafts, White is a lowkey great handcuff pick who would be flirting with the position’s top-36 options in a hurry if thrust into the lead role.