🤔 3 WRs We Shouldn't Forget

Camp fights, injury timelines, and preseason football?!? We are BACK, baby!

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:

I realize it’s August and peak draft season, but I found a leak in my game.

I’m less aggressive in early-offseason drafts. If I have to choose between two players, the safer option usually finds their way onto my roster.

Injury concerns in May? Best to stay away.

They’re on a new team? Let me see how they look in camp.

Meanwhile, their ADPs sit at reasonable spots as rookies and other standouts gain steam, while the latest camp news showed a bit of promise for three veteran WRs who are likely on a lot of “Do Not Draft” lists for 2023.

If things break right (or don’t break as we need them to stay healthy), they could be the guys you need.

🦶 Rashod Bateman, Ravens

New OC Todd Monken has emphasized pace since OTAs and a focus on the passing game real and fantasy fans have wanted since Lamar Jackson became the starter. But up until now, it’s been Jackson and Joystick.

However, some help appears ready to return to the flock.

Initial reports were promising. The third-year WR kept to individual drills but showed some burst without favoring his surgically-repaired foot. And with about a month left before Week 1, Bateman should be on track to play.

We only got a month of Lamar targeting the Minnesota product last year, but Bateman notched a 2.59 YPRR over those four weeks (sixth-best among WRs) until injuries derailed his (and Lamar’s) season.

I’ve leaned toward Zay Flowers as the option in the Ravens’ passing game I want to get right. But with Bateman likely to resume his X-receiver role, his ADP of 96.1 in what we expect to be a pass-friendly offense looks worthy of a click or two before it starts to rise.

 💪 Courtland Sutton, Broncos

Sutton finished as the WR43 last year, while the Broncos’ passing offense produced a better meme than an on-field product. Jerry Jeudy gave fantasy managers something to root for down the stretch, but the five-round gap between the two WRs looks shaky if we keep hearing more news like this.

A Sutton resurgence two years after his ACL injury isn’t a wild idea. He led Denver in overall targets and air yards plus earned the majority looks from Russell Wilson when the team got into the red zone. We just didn’t get those “moon balls” to Sutton as we expected in their first year together.

While the Broncos’ offseason moves point to a run-first offense, Wilson will still throw the ball. Plus, the loss of Tim Patrick creates a more condensed passing tree.

At 96th overall, you could justify Sutton’s cost if he’s able to trust his knee again.

😤 Elijah Moore, Browns

I realize guys like Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown shattered the “WR production dips when changing teams” narrative, but Elijah Moore isn’t in that tier.

Plus, Moore’s landing spot isn’t quuuiiiitttteeeeeee the same as playing for the Eagles or Dolphins.

But when I see stuff like this, I’ve got hope.

Sure, I get it. It’s one play, and Jerome Ford’s injury is the likely culprit for Moore being in the backfield. But let’s glide down Narrative Street for a minute.

Cleveland’s yet to make an addition to their RB room, and HC Kevin Stefanski was deploying Moore similarly back in OTAs, and with the offense adding more spread concepts for Deshaun Watson, they’ll likely end up ranking higher than 28th in pass rate over expectation.

So with an ADP of 87.0, Moore on the Browns’ offense has the potential to bring value to your squad.

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Preseason football is back! And if you’re looking for help in the betting market, Geoff has you covered with the biggest storylines and a couple of bets to make.

Preseason football is like the remote control for your TV. Could you live without it? Sure. But would life be worse without it? Yes.

Luckily for us, preseason football exists once again in 2023. A full slate of games with zero implications on the regular season but some potentially massive implications for those players trying to win starting jobs or crack a roster.

There is also betting, which we are obliged to do because, well, football (note, we went 2-0 on our first two preseason bets).

Love it or hate it, preseason football is here and your Week 1 preview (and bets) are below.

🏈 Biggest Week 1 NFL preseason storylines

As much as we joke, preseason can also have a big impact on player ADPs and betting markets like Offensive Rookie of the Year. A big play can cause the popularity of a previously unheralded or out-of-favor name to skyrocket. If you’re involved in best ball or dynasty leagues, it’s vital you keep at least a glancing eye on the games this week.

Three of the biggest storylines and narratives for Week 1 of the NFL preseason are below.

🤔 How will the rookie quarterbacks fair?

Without a doubt, the biggest focus of the week will be on how the rookie triumvirate of Anthony Richardson, CJ Stroud, and Bryce Young fare in their first NFL starts. A poor performance by any one of these three players could cause their ADP to drop or betting odds to plummet in the OROY market.

In terms of betting, Ricardson has made the biggest move in that market and currently sits with the second shortest odds among the quarterbacks at +700 (down from where he opened at +1100).

⚔ Camp Battles!

We have a couple of quarterback competitions to keep an eye on.

The competition is so close right now in Tampa Bay that the Buccaneers went out and listed their starting quarterback as Baker Mayfield OR Kyle Trask on the team’s first depth chart.

Mayfield will start this week against the Steelers, but Trask is already slated to start Week 2.

In Washington, Sam Howell entered the preseason as the perceived starter, but Jacoby Brissett has closed the gap, with his coach lauding praise on the veteran.

Howell should get plenty of run this preseason but needs some good performances.

👶🏻 Young QBs in Prove-It Spots

You already know most of them, but here are a few examples:

• Jordan Love, Packers

• Desmond Ridder, Falcons

• Mac Jones, Patriots

Again, this week represents just one game, but the microscope is out on all of these players in 2023, and it will start from snap one in the preseason.

💰 Week 1 NFL Preseason Betting Preview

🤠 Cowboys ML (+150, BetMGM)

This line moved when Doug Pederson announced Trevor Lawrence as the starter.

Lawrence isn’t playing more than a couple drives (max), and after that, it’s advantage Cowboys with Cooper Rush and Will Grier. Grier would undoubtedly love to push Rush for the backup job and featured in both Cowboys preseason wins last season (they went 2-1).

Pederson is also as nonchalant as they come in preseason. His last three years of coaching (including last year with the Jaguars and 2018-2020 with the Eagles) have produced a preseason record of 2-10 (straight up), with seven of those 10 losses coming by 10 or more points.

📺 Ian and Chris draft three times from different positions. Who had the best draft?

🤕 Cardinals lose an RB for the season. Brutal luck for Marlon Mack.

🐅 Guess who was back at practice today? But his “several weeks” timeline remains unchanged.

🏃🏾‍♂️ Tyreek Hill has called his shot for his yardage total in 2023. He’s a man on a mission.

👀 Pete Carroll gives us an update on Kenneth Walker. He may be back soon.

💰 Stacking advice from a champion. It’s all about Week 17, man.

🤝 Aaron Rodgers and Sauce Gardner got their own handshake. It’s about what you’d expect.

🥇 One of the greats makes an appearance at Falcons’ camp. Let’s see if it’ll make their defense better this season.

If you’re drafting more than a handful of best ball teams, you’ll want to think about your overall portfolio. In this advanced-level course, Profesor Pete describes how to utilize our free Best Ball Hub to accomplish your correlation and stacking goals across an entire portfolio. Take it away, Pete…

Over the past month, we’ve been teaching Best Ball Summer School classes to get you up to speed for peak drafting season.

We’ve done a refresher course on roster construction basics, explained why correlation and stacking are critical to best ball tournament success, and extended both of those concepts to Week 17 correlation specifically (so you can reverse-engineer your teams to win big money on Underdog Fantasy).

Today, we are going to take these ideas to the final frontier and show you how to marry the nuts and bolts of individual draft strategies with overall portfolio maintenance.

While the goal is always to draft the best possible team in a given room, we also have the ability to manage our exposures (via both stands and fades) across an entire portfolio. It’s the same idea as managing an investment portfolio with a balance of aggressive growth stocks and conservative value stocks.

While this might seem daunting or overwhelming–Hey Pete just let me rip some drafts on my phone in peace!!!-–portfolio management is a mandatory skillset for any best ball player who is playing a larger volume of entries.

Luckily, the free Fantasy Life Best Ball Hub makes it extremely easy to review your portfolio in real time and make gentle course corrections to your exposures as you continue to draft down the home stretch.

Here are a few concrete examples of how to utilize the Hub to build a strong, diverse portfolio of teams that are primed to compete for millions of dollars in Underdog tournaments…

💡 Tip 1: Diversify Your Stacks Around Your Favorite QBs

For better or worse (you probably think worse), Sam Howell is one of my most drafted QBs. Let’s set aside whether that is a smart decision or not, and instead focus on the concept of building out a correlated portfolio around a QB you are heavily targeting.

This goes back to the simple idea we discussed in the correlation primer course: If Howell has a big year, it means that multiple Commanders skill position players (specifically the pass catchers) are going to come along for the ride.

Via the Hub, I can quickly see that I’ve stacked Howell with at least one teammate 89% of the time. And you can also see which players I’ve specifically paired him with:

This is an example of a set of exposures that I’m perfectly happy with:

• I’m heaviest on Jahan Dotson, the cheaper of the Top 2 WRs who checks many boxes in the 2nd year breakout mold for WRs

• I have heavy exposure to the cheapest WR in the group in Curtis Samuel

• I have some stacks with the RBs, with the exposure tilted toward the pass-catching back (Antonio Gibson)

But it’s not always set it and forget it. Sometimes you need to rebalance your portfolio, which is something I want to do with the Steelers after reviewing my exposures. Kenny Pickett, like Howell, is another one of my most drafted QBs. But unlike with the Commanders, some of these exposure stands are more lopsided than I’d like:

While I’m very excited about Pat Freiermuth’s chances for a breakout year, I also want to make sure I’m targeting George Pickens (another second-year breakout candidate like Dotson) at a similar rate.

In reviewing these exposures, I came away wanting to take my foot off the gas on Diontae Johnson selections and prioritize more Pickens clicks. Luckily for me, the market is moving in the exact direction to help me accomplish this goal. The majority of my Johnson selections (“My ADP”) came in the 6th round, but he’s now going in the middle of the fifth.

This sets up perfectly for me to start passing on Johnson (I already packed my bags at a cheaper price) and prioritize Pickens a round later (where his ADP has actually fallen a smidge):

The goal of this stacking review exercise is not to perfectly balance your exposures. We simply want to acknowledge that when we make a big bet on a QB, it’s not easy to identify which ancillary pieces are going to be the biggest beneficiary if your bet pays off.

Reviewing your exposures and current ADP helps diversify bets around that QB in a smart, price-conscious way.