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A Rookie Ascends To WR1 Status In Week 4

It is time to set our fantasy lineups for Week 4, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest risers and fallers in Dwain McFarland’s Week 4 rankings to help you make those start-sit decisions …

Emeka Egbuka | WR | TB

Egbuka is the WR10, averaging 17 fantasy points over the first three weeks. The rookie has a 23% target share and has been the apple of Baker Mayfield's eye on 33% of endzone targets.

In Week 3, he managed 14.5 fantasy points despite a snap cap, battling through hip and groin injuries.

In Week 4, the Bucs will be more reliant than ever on Egbuka with Evans missing from the lineup. Chris Godwin could return, but he will still be making his way back into form.

The Eagles have been good against WR rooms, holding them 6.2 points below their season average (seventh-best). Additionally, the Bucs carry a subpar team total (20 points). When you add it all up, this isn't a layup game environment. It just represents an opportunity to bet big on an ascending talent who will be the focal point of the Bucs' passing attack.

Egbuka carries the fifth-highest Xfinity projection at 28.2 points in the overall projection model, thanks to Freedman's warm blanket. In my projections, he has the 12th-best ceiling at 26.6 points. Either way, those are both excellent numbers. 

Egbuka UPGRADES to low-end WR1 territory against Philadelphia.

Predicting Week 4: Hat Trick Incoming

The gawds of gambling and football be good. This is the smashiest of smash spots.

This is the second straight home game for the Bills and third in four weeks. They have three extra days of rest and prep coming off Thursday Night Football. With an outdoor stadium in upstate New York, they're hosting an indoor team from the South.

And that team—the Saints—is playing its second straight road game and is going coast to coast after playing in Seattle last week.

Oh, and the Saints are the league's worst team with their 0-3 record.

The Bills are consensus 16.5-point favorites—and, frankly, it might be giving the Saints too much credit. We have this projected at -18.5 (per our Fantasy Life Game Model).

While this setup provides a theoretical upgrade for everyone in the offense, the guy who should get the biggest upgrade (in my opinion) is RB James Cook.

In 2023, Cook had 1,567 scrimmage yards … but only six TDs. In 2024, he had only 1,267 yards … but 18 TDs. 

This offseason, Freedman asked this question: "Why couldn't he shoot the moon in 2025 with 1,567 yards and 18 TDs while playing alongside MVP QB Josh Allen?" 

Well, that's exactly what Cook has done so far this year.

• Week 1 (vs. BAL): 102 yards, 1 TD

• Week 2 (at NYJ): 135 yards, 2 TDs

• Week 3 (vs. MIA): 118 yards, 2 TDs

He's the only player in the league with 100+ yards and a TD in each of the first three weeks.

And it's not as if this is a fluke: He has seen the requisite increase in usage to support his production (per our Utilization Score, found in the Fantasy Life Utilization Report). 

• 2022: 33

• 2023: 69 

• 2023: 66 

• 2023: 81

Even with Allen "stealing" 16 TDs rushing, Cook now has 25 TDs in 22 games since last year (including playoffs).

In any given contest, the question for Cook is not if he'll score. It's how many TDs.

And now he has this juicy matchup against the Saints, who are No. 6 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (22.7). Just last week, they yielded two TDs to Kenneth Walker in a 44-13 home win.

We can do better than that, right?

Freedman’s Bold Prediction: Cook scores 3+ TDs.

Week 4 DST Streamer of the Week: LA Chargers

The Chargers are right at the threshold to be included in this article (they’re 50% rostered on Yahoo) and they are the clear top streaming option for Week 4. Not only are they one of the better overall defenses, but they also get to face rookie QB Jaxson Dart in his first NFL start.

There is a chance that we will look back and say you would have preferred for your DST to face Russell Wilson, but either way, this is still a plus matchup. I expect the Giants to want to play conservatively, but the Chargers offense has been so good that if they can get out to a lead and force New York to throw the ball, they have a good shot at racking up sacks and turnovers. 

Dart wasn't particularly prone to turnovers or sacks in college, but he is a mobile QB and we've seen those types of players hold onto the ball too long early in their career. Admittedly, it is unknown how he will play, but history definitely favors targeting rookie QBs in their first few starts.

The betting odds certainly suggest a positive game script for the LAC defense, with the Chargers favored by 6.5 points on the road. They do have to travel across the country for an early slate matchup, which is a minor concern, but ultimately this is a juicy enough matchup to make them my top streaming option for Week 4.

Around the Watercooler

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds.

👀 Ian’s top-10 things to know for Week 4. DvP, The Jaxson Dart Era and more.

⚡️ Looking for a buy-low target? Your answer is out west.

🤑 The ultimate PPR scam. Hey, we’ll take it.

😬 Next week brings us our first bye week. How to prepare.

🪓 Is it time to bench Tee Higgins? Oh boy.

😎 Tom Brady doesn’t see an issue. This quote gave me a headache.

🚑️ Injury updates. Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin.

🦅 Drew Brees is one of us … start passing the ball more, Birds.