🚀 3 Rookie TEs Dominating Camp

I think Patrick Mahomes is bored at camp...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Augusta Precious Metals:

It’s long been popular wisdom that you can’t draft rookie TEs in fantasy.

“They don’t produce Year 1!”

“It’s a position that takes years to develop!”

And while those things are still directionally accurate, the league is changing and we need to be quick to adapt.

Last year multiple rookie TEs came on down the stretch and delivered some week-winning performances:

• Trey McBride (Week 17: 7-78-1)

• Greg Dulcich (Week 16: 4-39-1)

• Chig Okonkwo (Week 14: 6-45-1)

• Jelani Woods (Week 12: 8-98)

• Isaiah Likely (Week 18: 8-103)

Instead of riding the pine for a few years before producing, this new wave of TEs turned in performances similar to their fellow rookies at RB and WR, who year after year see their roles increase as the season progresses.

And now we have an even better TE crop than we did last year. The class dominated the combine, graded out extremely well in our Rookie TE model, and then landed in a handful of juicy situations to deliver 2023 fantasy value.

But if macro trends aren’t enough to get you excited, how about some pure, uncut training camp hype? Here are three rookie TEs who have been enjoying a steady drumbeat of positive buzz recently…

🚀 Dalton Kincaid (ADP: 126.9)

I’ve had sticker shock on Kincaid’s ADP all offseason, but it’s impossible to ignore all of the positive reports out of Buffalo.

The biggest question for Kincaid’s fantasy value is how he fits in with veteran TE Dawson Knox and whether the team views him more as a traditional TE or as a glorified slot WR.

Well, based on these comments from GM Brandon Beane, it’s going to be an extremely fantasy-friendly role:

All of the rhetoric from camp points to Kincaid becoming a big-time factor out of the gate as a pass-catcher.

And the grainy training camp footage strongly supports those reports.

I’m still hesitant to pull the trigger on him at his current price, but he’s a priority target when you select Josh Allen and/or anytime he falls past ADP.

🚀 Sam LaPorta (ADP: 154.3)

The LaPorta buzz from Lions camp has been persistent. Reports say he has already become one of Jared Goff’s “primary targets” and is prime for a big role this year.

It’s hard to find anyone not singing his praises currently:

I would not be surprised to see LaPorta’s ADP rise closer to Kincaid’s over the next few weeks. Pack your bags now while you can…

🚀 Luke Musgrave (ADP: 209.7)

Kincaid and LaPorta might be stealing the headlines, but Musgrave made some noise over the weekend at the Packers’ “Family Night” practice:

One of the traps of training camp hype is double-counting highlight plays and not focusing primarily on usage. But Musgrave is checking that box, as well:

The depth chart is wide-open in Green Bay behind Christian Watson, which means Musgrave is a name we can no longer ignore.

We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. Today, Kendall shares two of her 2023 Ride or Dies...

We are so close to the start of the NFL season that I ALMOST want to congratulate you for making it this far, but I’ll save it for when we have more than the Hall of Fame game to cheer about.

While there were many (?) highlights from that game on Thursday, I think the best takeaway was the big boss Matthew Berry announcing his Ride or Die for the 2023 season.

Sorry Sun God fans. I hope you enjoyed the little discount you got on him because that ride is now over.

Once that announcement came, it got me thinking about players that could fit the “ride or die” category with a bit more risk — maybe placing them in more of a bounce-back situation.

Two players with some of the most questions around them are tight end Darren Waller and wide receiver Diontae Johnson. These two players are some of the most drafted by the Fantasy Life staff and shouldn’t be overlooked to have a bigger (and better) season in 2023.

🏎️ Darren Waller — New home and new me?

Let’s dig deep here and assume the change of scenery for Waller with the New York Giants will really help him find new success this year. We all remember the two elite seasons in 2019 and 2020 when he finished as TE3 and TE2, respectively.

Of course, we cannot gloss over the injuries and the concerns that come with them — Over the last two seasons, Waller has dealt with a pedal ankle sprain, knee strain, and hamstring strain. That hamstring injury last year kept him off the field for eight games and was one of the reasons he registered his second-lowest TPRR of his career at 17%.

NOW, if one of your leaguemates comes after you during the draft talking about Waller being “too old” just let them know we have historically seen good tight ends play well into their mid-30s.

I’m riding with Waller this season, not only because he will benefit from the lack of target competition with the Giants, but because he still has value with a current ADP of 76.

🏎️ Diontae Johnson — It can’t get worse, right?

Please know, I was also hurt by Johnson’s awful 2022 season.

It was absolutely brutal. He didn’t score a single touchdown, and his 147 scoreless targets are 38 more than the next-closest tally since the metric began being tracked in 1992.

But I am betting that doesn’t happen again.

His ADP has finally moved into a range that wasn’t totally criminal, and hopefully now people are buying into the fact that last season may have been just straight unlucky.

I know it doesn’t help when George Pickens keeps putting up highlight-reel plays during training camp, but just remember he was on the wrong side of volume and production in 2022. Johnson had more targets than Pickens in all but two games last season.

Ultimately, Johnson finished as the WR22 in 2020 and WR8 in 2021 before that awful WR41 performance last year. I am betting on the luck, and Kenny Pickett train to turn things around this season.

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🎩 Patrick Mahomes is already showing off. Chances we see this in a game??

🙏 The RB with a “miraculous” recovery. The ADP is on the rise…

📊 A polarizing RB and a WR primed for touchdown regression. What’s in store this season?

😥 The Saints lose an RB for the year. Bummer for New Orleans.

👀 Intel on the Eagles’ two-minute drill RB. It’s not who you’d guess.

🤔 The Colts sign a RB. Is this about Jonathan Taylor?

🤫 Don’t forget about this 49ers RB. He’s impressing at camp.

🚑️ An update on Cooper Kupp. Sounds like good news.

🔈️ Ja’Marr Chase wants Joe Burrow to sit?? An update from training camp.

Training camp news is firing on all cylinders, so today Ian Hartitz sifts through the noise to pass along some actionable nuggets…

A lot of things happen in training camp that really don’t matter at the end of the day.

Everyone is in the best shape of their life.

Recaps and analysis are generally written through rose-colored glasses: It’s tough to take much of anything away from the constant supply of highlights that take over social media in early August.

But not everything is meaningless – particularly any sort of information that helps us discern what is actually going on with muddled depth chart situations.

What follows is one training camp update from all 32 teams with a heavy emphasis on supplying actionable fantasy-friendly workload information.

As always: it's a great day to be great…

🎯 Arizona Cardinals

📝 Tidbit: Rookie WR Michael Wilson is impressing early.

While beat reporter Johnny Venerable calling Wilson “that dude” doesn’t change much in fantasy land, his follow-up reply about the rookie’s chances of starting in two-WR sets is intriguing:

“Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch appear exclusive to the slot. Marquise Brown is WR1 when healthy. The biggest thing will be Wilson needing to convince the staff he’s ready over Zach Pascal. I think he gets there.”

Wilson doesn’t exactly pop off the page in the Fantasy Life Rookie WR Super Model, although it’s tough to argue with a literally free fantasy asset who seemingly has a good chance to be a full-time player by Week 1.

The early-season best-case scenario for any WR in this likely Colt McCoy or Clayton Tune-led offense isn’t great, but Wilson is a solid last-round dart for drafters who

1. Already took Kyler Murray at cost.

2. Need a final game stacking piece for Week 17 correlation purposes.

🎯 Indianapolis Colts

📝 Tidbit: Anthony Richardson is getting plenty of action with the starters.

This isn’t a guarantee that Richardson starts the season over Gardner Minshew, although it’d be surprising if the Colts take too much time before putting the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 4 overall pick under center.

It feels inevitable that Richardson finds his way into the position’s top-10 signal-callers once this starting job comes to fruition: Dual-threat QBs with his sort of projected rushing volume simply don’t make a habit of busting in fantasy land.

🎯 New England Patriots

📝 Tidbit: There are four clear skill-position starters in this offense.

Their names: Rhamondre Stevenson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker, and Hunter Henry.

The former two players have been assumed to be in these roles all offseason and, accordingly, aren’t overly cheap in fantasy land, but the latter two veterans can still be obtained regularly in the final three rounds of drafts.

As a reminder, the Patriots gave Parker a new three-year contract worth up to $33 million in late June. There's only $14 million guaranteed, but at a minimum, that’s enough money to more or less cement Parker's spot in starting three-WR sets.

Parker flashed some patented grown-man catches throughout 2022 while posting a couple of 5-156-0 and 6-79-2 blowup performances. It’s not a given that he'll lead the team in targets over JuJu, but Parker's much cheaper ADP makes him a low-risk bet with a fair ceiling.

The 30-year-old veteran WR has been dubbed a fantasy football sleeper for what seems like 50 straight offseasons, but that doesn't change the fact that Parker has a serviceable target projection for a WR who's currently being drafted outside of the top 150 picks.