👀 3 Rookie Receivers To Watch

Jerome Ford and Joshua Kelley are starting RBs by Week 3. Just like we drew it up.

Each rookie class adds more excitement to the NFL.

Prospects can force a changing of the guard, become stars on their own, or fade into the abyss. Models can point us toward who has the best chance of becoming a high-end talent, but situation matters for fantasy.

Take Bijan Robinson for example.

Let’s set aside the positional value argument for a second and consider the likelihood of the Falcons being undefeated through two weeks without Robinson. As expected, his skillset instantly translated, and he’s a delight to watch gliding through defenders.

But WRs are different. The position can take time and the right QB or schematic pairing for fantasy managers to take notice. However, since three had early to mid-round ADPs heading into the season, let’s check in on the youngins and see how they’re doing in their first two weeks of NFL action.

🦅 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks

JSN was the first WR drafted, and his mid-round ADP in redraft leagues reflected Seattle’s investment. But the fantasy returns on that same investment haven’t been as fruitful after two games.

The former Buckeye has accrued just 12.7 PPR points on 11 targets. At this point, you could’ve gotten a similar fantasy total from Chase Claypool (12.6 points). After another dud against the Lions, more fantasy managers dropped Smith-Njigba from their rosters than Allen Robinson.

But it’s not all bad.

Smith-Njigba’s involvement in play designs to keep Geno Smith moving the chains has me interested in the rookie’s involvement. He’s run more routes (19) than DK Metcalf (17)and Tyler Lockett (18) in obvious passing situations and tied with Lockett for targets in the same situation (5). However, one of his gifts has become a curse early in his career.

In college, the Ohio State product was known for his big-play ability, with a ridiculous 8.8 YAC per reception. And JSN’s creation skills translated to the pros. His 4.8 YAC per rec is greater than Tyreek Hill’s (3.9). But unlike Hill, the rookie has just one target greater than 10 air yards.

Against the Panthers this week, who just let a shifty WR3 get loose downfield last week, and TE Will Dissly listed as doubtful, we may get more out of the Seahawks’ latest addition. Regardless, he’s worth stashing as Seattle adjusts to its offensive line woes.

⚔️ Jordan Addison, Vikings

Luckily for fantasy managers rostering Jordan Addison, they don’t have to worry about downfield targets.

Minnesota’s first-round pick has the same share of his team’s air yards on deep-ball attempts as Mike Evans (54.7%). And the rookie ranks seventh in yards generated on those plays. With highlights like these, he’ll be featured in a lot of redraft and DFS lineups against the Chargers.

But I sense the skepticism.

It’s the Justin Jefferson show in U.S. Bank Stadium. And it was T.J. Hockenson with the double tuddies to keep the Vikings’ hopes alive last week. Their week-to-week opportunities look stable compared to relying on explosives for Addison. However, it’s not like Cousins has many other options.

The Vikings needed a receiver opposite Jefferson to keep the offense on schedule. Last season, Hockenson took some of the heat while absorbing most of the targets (28.3%) on third and fourth-down attempts.

But in ‘23, Addison’s already lived up to expectations.

He’s earned more looks than Jefferson and Hockenson when the team needs to move the chains with almost as many series-converting catches (3 to 4).

So if the rookie is already creating big plays downfield and one of Cousins’ go-to options when needing to move the ball, Addison has more upside than his WR18 rank might suggest.

But don’t tell your leaguemate that while trying to trade for him.

⚡ Quentin Johnston, Chargers

I must’ve misread Quentin Johnston’s situation because I expected…well…not this.

After two weeks, Johnston’s 5 targets are the fifth-fewest of any first-round WR drafted in the last 10 years. But I can (kinda) understand the lack of looks in an offense headlined by Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler.

However, he’s run fewer routes (25) than Josh Palmer (57).

Part of the issue is LA’s shift toward a balanced offense. Last season, they had a 32% dropback rate over expectation. But after hiring OC Kellen Moore, they’re at 3%. And it’s not like Moore’s comments point to any sudden change in Johnston’s usage.

But maybe, just maybe, while sitting at 0-2 and HC Brandon Staley insisting last season’s loss to Jacksonville isn’t a factor this year, they should try something different.

The threat of Johnston downfield connected to a QB with a howitzer attached to his right shoulder was part of the logic for drafting the TCU standout. And without Ekeler again, we’ll see a Chargers’ offense without a critical component for the second consecutive week.

However, hopefully, this time, we’ll see more from the rookie in one of the games projected to have the highest total for Week 3.

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Debating between two guys on your roster? Need someone to break the tie for you? Matthew Freedman, Dwain McFarland, and Ian Hartitiz dove deep into their rankings to find a few players they’re willing to push into their starting lineup for Week 3.

It’s Week 3, and it feels like we’ve all been checked by reality. We’ve got multiple early-round draft picks on 0-2 real-life teams, which have probably put fantasy managers in a similar spot. And injuries have caused tectonic shifts throughout the league.

But you, a scholar, knew who to target on waivers. And now, it just comes down to who we should prioritize for our starting roster spots.

As we head into another slate of games, our rankings squad got together again to find a few players they’re higher or lower on relative to consensus.

So if you’re having questions about setting your lineup for Week 3, let’s check out their notes before kickoff.

💪 Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs. Jets

Will you just look at this man’s utilization?

Stevenson has handed roughly a third of the RB snaps to former Cowboys back Ezekiel Elliott, but make no mistake about it: This backfield still firmly belongs to No. 38.

The receiving upside here, in particular, is simply impossible to ignore in full-PPR formats. The position’s current leaders in PPR fantasy points from purely receiving production are as follows:

1. Bijan Robinson (23.5)

2. Saquon Barkley (19.1)

3. Kyren Williams (17)

4. Jaylen Warren (16.8)

5. Aaron Jones (16.6 - in one game)

6. Stevenson (16.4)

Stevenson posted 7-72-0 and 6-56-0 receiving lines against this Sauce Gardner-let secondary last season – don’t be surprised if the Patriots again look to attack the underneath areas of the field in a major way this Sunday.

- Ian

🤔 Alexander Mattison (Vikings) vs. Chargers

• Vikings: Pick’Em

• O/U: 54

• TT: 27

I wish I were joking. Mattison has underwhelmed this season (83 yards, one TD). But he has 29 of the team’s 36 backfield opportunities (19 carries, 10 targets), and he leads the Vikings with four opportunities (two carries, two targets) inside the 10-yard line. For better or worse — probably worse — he looks like the guy.

LT Christian Darrisaw (ankle) seems likely to return to action given that he was active in Week 2 (albeit as a reserve), and the Vikings have a three-day rest advantage coming off Thursday Night Football.

Last year, the Chargers were No. 30 in defensive rush DVOA (8.6%) and are playing their second game in a row on the road.

- Freedman

⚡ Joshua Kelley (Chargers) at Vikings

Kelley delivered an RB12 finish in Week 1, sharing time with Austin Ekeler. In Week 2, that made fantasy managers eager to get him into their lineups with Ekeler out. Unfortunately, Kelley ran into one of the outlier quality run defenses in the Titans and finished as the RB44.

Tennessee ranked No. 1 in rushing yards allowed per game last year (76) and has started hot in 2023, ranking 4th (65). That won’t be the case this weekend against the Vikings, who have allowed 166 yards per contest this year (29th) and allowed 124 (21st) in 2022.

No other game has a higher total than this matchup at 54 points, and the Chargers offer a top-five team total. We want plenty of exposure to this game, and while Kelley bombed in the box score last weekend, his underlying utilization was pristine.

We get the perfect scenario with Kelley in Week 3: That is a high-end RB1 utilization profile in a great game environment. The Chargers’ RB offers 100-yard and multiple TD upside.

With Ekeler officially out, Kelley is a SMASH play, and I am currently 15 spots ahead of consensus in the Fantasylife Rankings at No. 23 overall.

- Dwain

📺 EVERYTHING you need ahead of Week 3. Brought to you in record time, too.

🤪 Minshew Mania continues in 2023. The legendary backup returns to action.

🏥 The doctors are in. Updates you need on EVERY fantasy-relevant injury.

🚌 The Ravens’ backfield loses another starter. It's time to hop on the Gus Bus!

⚔ Looking for Week 3 games to circle?! Four MUST-TARGET matchups.

😡 Expecting a breakout year from this Broncos WR? Sean Payton doesn’t see it happening.

🥰 A moment that’ll never be forgotten. 49ers’ rookie WR gets the game ball after catching his first touchdown.

🎥 The Texans might have two fantasy-relevant WRs. A film review on their rookie.

📊 A new way to look at NFL team records over the last nine seasons. NFL and MLB worlds collide.

🏃‍♂️ George Kittle lets us know what HC Shanahan looks for in a receiver. No YAC? No ball.

Finding the right player stacks can be the key to building a profitable roster in DFS. If you want to get the jump on this weekend, James McCool from Paydirt DFS has the data to guide you for Week 3.

Welcome to High Value Facts and Stacks! I’ll be outlining three high-value stacks for DFS and providing some important stats about them that separate them from the rest of the pack.

Typically, the goal here will be to talk about one popular option, one less popular option, and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for a wide array of situations!

All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com.

🥇 Popular option: Minnesota Vikings

🧾 Facts:

• Justin Jefferson broke the record for the most receiving yards by a rookie and is on pace to shatter his previous season marks through two weeks with averages of 154 yards and 10 receptions per game.

• The Vikings have the highest average Dropback over expectation (DBOE) in the league at 15% as well as a top 5 Plays per minute over expectation (PPMOE) at .06, giving them some of the highest upside in the league for fantasy.

• Jordan Addison is still playing relatively limited snaps (78% snap share in week 2) but continues to have much better utilization than teammate K.J. Osborn, so expect him to pass him in the pecking order soon.

📊 Stack info (DraftKings)

💰 Salary and projections:

• Combo 1 (Kirk Cousins/Justin Jefferson/T.J. Hockenson): The Median score is 57.89 for a Salary of $22,700.

• Combo 2 (Kirk Cousins/Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison): The Median score is 57.44 for a Salary of $21,700.

• Combo 3 (Kirk Cousins/Jordan Addison/T.J. Hockenson): The Median score is 47.49 for a Salary of $18,900.

When you look at the Median score per unit of salary, the first combo provides approximately 57.89 / $22,700 = 2.55 points per unit of Salary.

The second combo offers 2.65 points per unit of salary, making it the most cost-efficient, and the third combo provides 2.51.

The second combo is marginally more "efficient" from a cost-to-median-score perspective.

🧮 Finish percentiles

• Combo 1 (Kirk Cousins/Justin Jefferson/T.J. Hockenson): 19.92% Top Finish and 51.60% Top 5 Finish.

• Combo 2 (Kirk Cousins/Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison): 18.80% Top Finish and 48.64% Top 5 Finish.

• Combo 3 (Kirk Cousins/Jordan Addison/T.J. Hockenson): 2.92% Top Finish and 18.92% Top 5 Finish.

💥 High salary, high reward

This combo has the highest salary at $22,700 but also provides the highest median score of 57.89. The likelihood for a Top Finish (19.92%) and a Top 5 Finish (51.60%) is significant, indicating that it has substantial upside. In fact, this combination has the highest Top Finish% and Top 5 Finish% percentages of any on the slate!

🤷‍♂️ Moderate salary, moderate reward

This combo, while having a slightly lower salary at $21,700, still offers a comparable Median score of 57.44 and solid percentages for Top Finishes. It's a viable alternative to the first combo if you are looking to save a bit on the salary while still aiming for high rewards.

📉 Low salary, lowest reward

With the lowest salary of $18,900, this combo offers a significant cost saving but at the expense of lower performance expectations (Median score of 47.49). The chances for Top Finishes are also considerably lower, making this combo a more budget-friendly but riskier option.