😱 3 Players Not To Panic On

Let Russ Cook (except on TikTok)...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by PFF:

We've been taking calls all week on our Fantasy Life show on Sirius XM, and many of them have revolved around players who got off to a slow start in Week 1.

It's a natural impulse to panic, especially if you spent a premium pick on a player who appears to be a flop.

There are some players I can't talk you off the ledge on (like Allen Robinson, sorry), but here are three players who we've been asked about a bunch that you should absolutely be patient with:  

🙏🏽 Devonta Smith 

Smith bageled in Week 1, but all of the underlying peripherals are bullish. He played 96% of the snaps and 98% of the pass plays. A.J. Brown simply hogged all the targets in this one (45% target share), but that will balance out in the coming weeks.

The Eagles look like they'll be one of the most explosive offenses in the league, and their pass rate over expectation points to a more aerial-friendly approach than they had at the end of last year.

🙏🏽 Kyle Pitts 

Pitts disappointed in the box score, but there are lots of reasons for optimism. He still had seven targets, as well as 64 unrealized air yards (a metric we look at to see which players receiving opportunities are due for regression).

On top of that, the Falcons actually had a lead most of this game and therefore only tallied 33 pass attempts. The Pitts breakout thesis has not changed. Big games are coming. 

🙏🏽 Travis Etienne 

James Robinson was the talk of the town Sunday (and rightfully so!), but I've seen way too many people hitting the panic button about Etienne. For starters, Trevor Lawrence missed him on a wide-open TD pass early in the game, which would have painted his day in a much different light.

He also played 75% of the long-down and distance snaps, 100% of the two-minute offense, and 100% of the short yardage work. Oh, and he averaged 11.75 per carry. Robinson isn't going away, but Etienne's role (and ability to create big plays) remains strong.

By the way, if you'd like to send in a question for the show, give us a call Mondays-Fridays from 11am-1pm ET (888-963-2682) or send Kendall and me a tweet. Matthew will be calling in on Friday as well.  

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It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 2 and Dwain has you covered with in-depth player tiers, rankings, and analysis. Here are a few of his favorites for Week 2:

Quarterback 

⬆️  Tier 3 – Derek Carr leaps into Tier 3 for Week 2 thanks to a juicy matchup that should be a shootout versus a poor Cardinals secondary. Arizona ranks as the No. 2 matchup according to PFF’s QB SOS metric, and the matchup offers the fourth-highest game total.

The Cardinals were torched by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs for 360 yards and five TDs in Week 1. Carr threw for 295 yards and two TDs last weekend against a much tougher defense in the Chargers. This is why we targeted AFC West players in our drafts – the huge game totals.

Running Back

🔒 Tier 2 – Leonard Fournette ranks ahead of the industry consensus for the second-consecutive week. Last weekend he dominated snaps (76%), rushing attempts (64%), routes (76%), and registered an explosive run on 29% of his carries (10-plus yards).

Since 2011, eight backs have handled over 60% of their team’s rushing attempts and eclipsed the 70% route participation threshold. Their finishes: RB1, RB3, RB7 (Fournette in 2019), RB1, RB2, RB1, RB1, and RB3.

Cordarrelle Patterson torched the Saints for 120 yards and a touchdown last weekend. Fournette is a must-start in all formats in Week 2.

🪨 Tier 2 – James Conner scored 16.9 points in Week 1, picking up right where he left off in 2021. He didn’t leave the field on passing downs, eclipsed the 60% route participation threshold, and handled 53% of the rushing attempts. Before the game was out of hand, Conner accounted for 90% of snaps in the first half.

The Raiders only allowed 84 yards rushing and zero touchdowns against the Chargers in Week 1, but this game could shoot out with the fifth-largest game total on the slate. In that scenario, Conner has TD and receiving upside. He is another game-script-proof back, thanks to a rock-solid utilization profile.

Wide Receiver

👹 Tier 1 – Davante Adams was an absolute MONSTER in Week 1, posting a mind-numbing 45% target share in his first game with the Raiders. In Week 2, he draws the Cardinals’ secondary that Patrick Mahomes obliterated for 360 yards and five TDs.

The Raiders offer the fourth-highest implied points on the slate in a matchup with the second-best game total. Adams checks boxes for miles in Week 2, making him my WR1 overall.

🌞 Tier 3 – Amon-Ra St. Brown has seven straight games with a 30% target share or better. Let that sink in for a moment. Jared Goff loves his slot receiver – just like he loved Cooper Kupp all the way to a No. 4 overall finish in 2019.

In Week 2, the Sun God draws a matchup with surprise shootout potential (No. 5 game total) against the Commanders, who let Christian Kirk get loose for six catches and 117 yards, mostly from the slot.

You are looking at a top-10 WR on this slate – just let him know what you expect.

Tight End

🎰 Tier 4 – Albert Okwuegbunam flashed an elite profile operating in a part-time role over the last two years. In 2021, he delivered a 24% target rate and 1.94 yards per route run – numbers that we expect from the top-six options in the game.

However, drafters cooled on Albert O. this preseason when he was forced to play deep into preseason games while other starters rested. In Week 1, he put a damper on those concerns with a 77% route participation.

The Broncos were forced out of their 21-personnel groupings in a trailing script, where Okwuegbunam picked up more routes in the two-minute offense. A better route participation target is probably 70%, but that is still more than double what we have seen from him in the past and enough for him to carve out more work if his talent profile wasn’t a mirage.

🚑 An RB star didn't practice yesterday with an ankle injury. This is not good.

👑 The Red Zone kings. 6 RBs who played every red zone snap for their team.

🥊 The Michael Thomas vs. Carlton Davis matchup is going to be lit. Lots of bad blood here.

⛔ Please stop this, Russ. You can only do this kinda stuff after a win.

🍿 Now, this is a press conference outfit. Go off, Lamar.

📈 ICYMI: The Utilization Report. Everything you need to know for waivers, lineups, and DFS.  

MNF was a dud, but tonight's island game tilt between the Chargers and the Chiefs (-4 home favorites) should provide redemption with the game's 54.5 over/under pointing to a shootout.

The Chargers will be without star WR Keenan Allen and backup TE Donald Parham (who are both dealing with hamstring injuries), while the Chiefs are mostly healthy (kicker Harrison Butker will miss, and Matt Amendola will start).

Here's everything we like tonight from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective:  

🔥 Who will score the most Fantasy Points tonight?

We are super excited to announce a regular partnership with the premiere DFS content site, One Week Season. Each week, high stakes pro JMToWin will be sharing his thoughts on how to win at DFS. Take it away, JM...

“I can’t pull the trigger on that play.”

“That doesn’t make any sense.”

“What if it doesn’t work?”

One of the biggest mistakes we can make in DFS is thinking that our 'edge' is being able to out-predict the field.

This might seem nonsensical.

On the surface, DFS is a game of out-predicting the field. "I'll win every week if I do a better job at finding high-scoring players than the field."

But we don't play DFS on the surface. And when you go below it, you begin to realize that DFS is not a game of maximizing points; it's a game of maximizing your paths to a first-place finish.

The more we understand this, the more we can begin to find the specific strategy edges we can bend to our favor in a particular week.

Of course, Week 1 is always unique. Pricing comes out early, which leads to some massive values. DFS sites also provide softer pricing in Week 1 to make things easier for casual players.

But while the unique elements of Week 1 are well-known, most DFS players treat Week 2 like 'any other week.'

With that in mind, here are 3 critical factors to keep in mind for Week 2:

1. An overwhelming majority of the field lost money in Week 1!

This is obvious when you look at Week 1 through a macro lens. Approximately 20% of the field cashes in every tournament. And 150-max players or gamers with a handful of rosters with only a couple cashing (and still losing overall) comprise a large chunk of the 20%. But we tend to look back on Week 1 through a narrow lens.

"I lost money. This sucks. I want to do better next week."

By and large, the field will gravitate even more fully this week toward plays they feel 'good' about; plays that make them feel 'safe.' Chalk becomes chalkier; moving away from the chalk becomes that much more powerful.

2. Week 1 is typically 'bias confirmation' week.

Most of us have spent weeks or even months forming our opinions about players, teams,  and situations. More often than not, these biases are stronger than anything we saw last week. If we loved a player and they hit, it confirms our preseason analysis.

If we disliked a player and they bombed, we were right all along. And if we loved a player and they disappointed, we 'know' it was just a one-week fluke. Our biases are too strong. The more we fight them, the more we can exploit the field — which leads directly into #3.

3. A single week is a minuscule sample size

If a player were averaging five targets per game and randomly spiked for 11, most gamers would recognize the variance as a blip on the radar. But if we only have one sample, it's all too easy to overrate everything we saw.

The field will assume high-usage trends will hold all season. It'll also assume disappointments will also continue. Once again, we can exploit this mindset with our rosters and (significantly) outperform the field over time by always looking at any given NFL week through a big-picture lens.

Always remember: DFS is a strategy game! Look for ways to exploit the weaknesses of the field, and you'll come out ahead over time.

See you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

JMToWin is a founder/developer of One Week Season, where you can find FREE game breakdowns, weekly slate preparation, and DFS strategy insights and training. Use code LIFE to save 20% on all OWS subscriptions.