• Colts WR Josh Downs is expected to miss 4-6 weeks. Downs suffered a high-ankle sprain at yesterday’s practice and now his availability for the start of the season is very much in doubt. This is a brutal setback for the second-year wideout who was having a great camp. In best ball, the late-season production should still be there, so I don’t mind buying the dip. For redraft, though, he’s likely an early-season roster clogger. It’s worth inching Adonai Mitchell up your draft boards if he gets an earlier look to flash.

• Falcons WR Rondale Moore was carted off the field yesterday. We are still waiting for an update, but Moore left practice with an inflatable cast on his leg and was rushed to a nearby medical facility. Considering the Falcons canceled the rest of practice, it’s clear this is a very serious injury. Ray-Ray McCloud, who has been getting buzz at camp, is now the next man up behind Drake London and Darnell Mooney.

At the risk of leaving you with only bad news, I should highlight that the Jets activated Mike Williams off the PUP list. He’s too cheap in drafts right now.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

1. Chris Allen: How to draft from the 1.11

2. Watercooler: highlighting the most important position battles to monitor

Optimal Draft Strategy with the No. 1.11 Pick

by Chris Allen

One of my favorite episodes of It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia is The Gang Solves the Gas Crisis.

The title alone makes me giggle. 

But the pertinent part is Charlie claiming he’s the wild card of the group. Dennis, in his infinite wisdom, explains that nobody wants a maniac making decisions. It benefits no one. But, to play the 1.11 right, you have to cut the brake lines and bail on your friends (metaphorically speaking, of course).

You see, as the 11th drafter, your leaguemates expect you to roll over and go with the flow. If they’re drafting WRs, you’ll take whatever’s left. Don’t bother with a draft strategy. At the 1.11, your leaguemates are banking on you to copy them—with worse players!

Forget that.

I say we lean into the wild card bit and build a contending roster. Let’s ride.

The First Round

The hardest part about drafting from the 11 spot is the first round. I tend to feel slightly behind already because 10 other (theoretically) better players just went before my pick. Now, I’m playing catchup from the jump. We need to flip the script.

Our Draft Champion tool is a quick way to set expectations. Sure, I know my 11th pick won’t be as good as the first or fourth. But knowing who I can pick gives me a path. I can devise a loose strategy. So, with some default settings, I simulated the first 10 selections using ESPN’s ADP.

My best-ball brain can’t get over the number of RBs this early. Nevertheless, we’ve got a few things to consider here.

First, I gave you the board instead of who’s available for a reason: to recreate the feeling of despair. Everyone goes into the lobby, sees all of the elite first-round options, and thinks they all have an equal shot at one of them. No, you (at the 1.11) don’t. Consequently, instead of pining away for Bijan Robinson or Justin Jefferson, we should be preparing for who’s more likely to be there when we’re on the clock.

I swapped ADP sources to Yahoo, and Marvin Harrison slid into the top suggestions from the Draft Assistant. With Sleeper ADP, more WRs went ahead of me, leaving Breece Hall at 1.11. Regardless, this is our pool to kick off the draft. I won't lie. It looks dire. But actually, it’s not so bad.

Eight players comprise our first two tiers. Put another way, we weren’t going to get a high-end player at the 11th-overall slot anyway. Even better, neither were the folks a couple of spots ahead of us. In any case, the list gives us a foundation to build a multiverse of teams to test different approaches. 

• Team 1: Jonathan Taylor (Hero RB)

• Team 2: Puka Nacua (Hero RB)

• Team 3: Garrett Wilson (Zero RB)

Notice I tacked on a draft strategy to each name. To be clear, I’m not beholden to them. However, with just two picks before being back on the clock at the 2.02, I need some idea of what I want to do. Again, I’m trying to set expectations. However, we can still let the board inform our next move.

Related Content

• Drafting from the 1.08: Breece, baby

• Drafting from the 1.09: Is AJB an ADP value?

• Drafting from the 1.10: Puka time

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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

👀 CMC’s calf injury may open the door for a sleeper. This RB is basically free.

📊 WR rankings updates. What to do with Josh Downs, Mike Williams, and more.

✍️ Every fantasy-relevant position battle you need to know. You could discover some value here.

🥱 We’re still waiting on Aiyuk news. When we know, you’ll know.

🤯 A behind-the-back TD pass? I bet you can guess who did it.

🤘 The NFL team that wants to have a mosh pit. Not as cool as it sounds, sadly.

🤔 His “former teammate”… ya, this has to be over soon.

🚨 ICYMI: Breakouts, busts, sleepers, and more. Your WR primer for 2024.

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