Please tell Amari Cooper this is a home game...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- The Bills made it to Detroit
- Morning Download: Pete gets you caught up
- The Broncos finally make a change
- Eliot's favorite stack: Eagles/Colts
- SNF: Our SNF Picks & Plays
- Player Matchups: Darius Slayton & Dalton Schultz
- It’s 11/20. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
It was touch-and-go there for a second, but the Bills finally made it to Detroit late yesterday afternoon.
Bills fans digging Bills players out of their homes so they can get to a game that was moved because of 77” of snow is the most Buffalo of all Buffalo things
— Kristen Kimmick (@Kimmick86)
Nov 19, 2022
As far as fantasy goes, this is a dream scenario. Instead of a snowy game with massive wind gusts and a 41 point total, we get a dome game with a 50 point total and the perfect environment for a fantasy bonanza.
The only remaining question is whether this neutral field counts as a home or away game for Amari Cooper...
Amari Cooper’s performance variance between Home & Road games is WILD.
Cooper’s career splits:
Home: 5.2 rec / 76.7 yards / 0.6 TD / 13.8 points
Road: 4.4 rec / 54.5 yards / 0.3 TD / 9.4 points
— Luke Sawhook 🪚🪝 (@lukesawhook)
Nov 14, 2022
Read on for the biggest fantasy news stories from last night, including two injured TEs set to return today, as well as our favorite DFS plays and sports bets for today's action.
- INACTIVES - updated at 11:30am ET for 1pm games
- RANKINGS - Full Week 11 rankings for multiple scoring settings from Dwain & Waz
- FANTASY LIFE TWITTER - If news breaks, we'll have it.
- START/SIT TOOL - Debating who to start? Simply type in both players to this tool and we'll tell you the best option:
- PLAYER PROPS TOOL - Our freshly updated props tool is here to give you the best bets for each game.
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💰 Matt LaMarca is betting: Cowboys -1.5
The Vikings' magic has to run out at some point, right? RIGHT?!? The amount of improbable wins they’ve pulled out this season is remarkable, highlighted by last week’s win over the Bills. Their win expectation fell to 0.13% after getting stopped on a fourth-and-goal, but a miraculous Josh Allen fumble allowed them to secure another victory. They’ve now won seven consecutive one-score games, tying an NFL record.
It may seem disrespectful that the 8-1 Vikings are home underdogs in this spot, but the sharps know a fraud when they see one. The Cowboys have the superior defense, and with Dak Prescott back under center, they have the better offense as well. The Cowboys should be focused after losing to the Packers last week, so I like their chances of winning this game. That said, I’ll be buying a rabbit’s foot just to combat whatever is going on in Minnesota.
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📁 Mark Andrews set to return
The star Ravens TE is expected to suit up vs. the Panthers today after missing Week 9 with both shoulder and knee injuries. He's now coming off three weeks of rest thanks to the bye in Week 10, and he was upgraded to a full participant in practice on Friday. He's locked and loaded as the TE2 on the week behind only Travis Kelce.
One other moving piece in Baltimore is RB Gus Edwards (hamstring/knee) who is a game-time decision. Feel free to fire up Kenyan Drake if Edwards misses.
📁 Zeke is back
We had a fun run with lead back Tony Pollard, but Ezekiel Elliott (knee) will return to the lineup today vs. the Vikings. Still, we have aggressive rankings on Pollard because he can put up big fantasy scores on limited touches:
📁 David Njoku returns to the lineup
One under-the-radar piece of news this week is that the Browns TE is likely to play today vs. the Bills after getting in limited practices this week. Njoku has missed the last month with an ankle injury. Dwain is bullish on his return and his him ranked as the TE8 on the week.
📁 Misc. files
Cooper Kupp is expected to miss 6-8 weeks, which means he can be dropped in any league that doesn't have an IR slot. Brutal...Eagles TE Dallas Goedert is excepted to return at some point this season, although it's very ambiguous as to what that timeline is. Via the ESPN story:
One source familiar with Goedert's status told ESPN the "only question is whether it's with two, three or four games left (in the regular season). But he will be back this season, definitely."
🐦 Who will start at QB for the Cardinals tomorrow? Here's an update.
🎧 Could this be the change the Broncos need? It can't hurt.
💰 Will Justin Jefferson break 100 yards against the Cowboys? Find out what our betting expert is playing on Underdog & Sleeper
➕ The Saints add an RB. Remember that name?
🥃 Drinking on a plane? Sounds fine to me.
📈 This elite WR is going under the radar in DFS today. His matchup is too good to pass up.
🛩️ Where will Odell land? Sounds like he's narrowed it down to two teams.
🤔 I know it's David Montgomery week, but this seems excessive. Play or fade? Find out.
😥 Jameis Winston is bummed. Hard to blame him.
🎞️ Footage of the Bills getting to Detroit? Waiting for sources to confirm.
When playing DFS, we want to correlate our lineups because it means we have to get fewer things right. Tournaments have such top-heavy payout structures that when you are right, you want to be right in a big way. That’s where stacking teams and games come into play. Today, Eliot shares his favorite game to stack...
🚀Jalen Hurts > Zach Pascal (Bring Back: Jonathan Taylor)
While many will look to build stacks around Josh Allen and Justin Fields this week (for a good reason) the Eagles and Colts game at far lower rostership has caught my eye.
Jalen Hurts finished as a top-six QB in seven of nine games this season. While his rushing totals have been lower of late, the way the Eagles use his legs inside the RedZone is a dream. He leads the league in RedZone rushing attempts and attempts inside the five-yard line while seeing 61% of the Eagles rush attempts inside the 5.
This gives Hurts the possibility for multiple rushing touchdowns and slate-breaking upside on a weekly basis. While the matchup may scare some, the combination of playing in a dome, where 9% more points are scored historically, and the Colts' struggles against play action make this matchup intriguing.
On play-action pass attempts this season the Colts are allowing a 73.8% completion percentage against - the third-highest rate in football. The Eagles love to use play action and RPOs to throw the off-the-defense with 48.6% of their pass plays utilizing it. Hurts is averaging 8.5 yards per attempt on RPOs and should lean on it heavily on that against the Colts.
The biggest beneficiary of the RPO passing game this season has been Dallas Goedert, who was placed on IR this week. Jack Stoll will be replacing Goedert as the starting tight end, but he is a blocking tight end. The man who stands the most to gain in the receiving game is Zach Pascal, currently projected for sub-1 % rostership.
Pascal is the only other player besides Goedert that the Eagles have consistently used on the curl flat RPO that they love so much. This play type should be their biggest passing advantage on offense, and I expect them to try to exploit it continuously.
I'll be running it back with Jonathan Taylor, who looked like his first-overall pick self last week, rushing for 147 yards and a TD on 22 carries. The Eagles' run defense has been a mess since they lost nose tackle Jordan Davis. In the last two weeks, they have 320 yards on the ground - look for Taylor to feast in this matchup.
In addition to the rushing upside, Taylor has officially moved into the bellcow territory with the trade of Nyhiem Hines. Taylor received 100% of the long down and distance and two-minute snaps last week and is not game script independent.
Tonight, the Chargers host the Chiefs as 5.5-point underdogs in a game with the highest total on the entire day (52).
On Friday, we outlined the Chiefs WR room, as the team will be without Mecole Hardman (IR) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) for this one.
The Chargers, however, are finally getting healthy. They are expected to get back both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Giddyup.
Every Sunday we'll highlight two interesting matchups you should be aware of before setting your lineup. Take it away, Kevin...
🔥 Darius Slayton vs. DET
The Giants have played roulette (Russian or otherwise) all season with their WR and TE room looking for an option to finally hit. The team has gone through many reclamation projects, young players, and high-priced free agents and have pretty much come up empty-handed.
What if the call was coming from inside the house the entire time?
Darius Slayton has been hanging around all season on the Giants roster like a barnacle, and patience has rewarded him (and the Giants) with solid fantasy production. Slayton has been a top-36 option in four of his last five games. Per RotoViz, Slayton is 11th among WRs in yards per route run (2.34) among WR with at least 140 routes. The list above him is a who’s who of NFL WRs, including Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, etc.
The Lions are the seventh-worst team against fantasy WRs and give up the fifth-most receiving yards per game to a team’s WR1. The Giants have stayed in very close games all season, so if the Giants and Daniel Jones need to pass more, I like Slayton to be a huge beneficiary in Week 11.
🔥 Dalton Schultz @ MIN
We love when good players get healthy. We love when multiple good players on one offense get healthy. I know, folks. I totally went out on a limb here with these statements.
Even better than those two statements, we love when those get healthy for the weeks we need them the most. So with Dak Prescott and Dalton Schultz back for the Cowboys, we LOVE to see it.
Schultz, in particular, has been a top-12 TE, scoring double-digit fantasy points in all three weeks since returning to the Cowboys' lineup in Week 7. He’s also been excellent on a per-route basis with a 24% targets per route run, which is eighth among TEs with a minimum of 100 pass routes. In addition, Schultz is also getting on the field more as his routes run percentage has increased each week since returning.
The best ability is availability, some say.
The Vikings are a below-average team vs. fantasy TEs this season, so in the game with the third-highest over/under point total per BetMGM, I’m rolling with Schultz as a top-five TE option this week.
i have read six beat writer pieces on who might be the eagles new pass-catching TE and i'm here to report i still have no idea
— Denny Carter (@CDCarter13)
Nov 19, 2022