🏖️ 2 Players To Target & 2 To Fade

Sorry hun, can't make the Memorial Day BBQ. I entered 46 slow drafts...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:

There's only one thing better than a $25 tournament with a $2,000,000 top prize and that's a $5 tournament with a $75,000 top prize. Hot best ball summer rolls on with the release of The Puppy, the newest tournament on Underdog Fantasy

Fantasy Life readers get up to a $100 deposit match with promo code LIFE. That's essentially enter 20 Puppy drafts, get 20 FREE. Hop in there and get some drafting reps. Below, we share a couple players to avoid and a couple to target.

We're all flying a little blind in these early best ball drafts, so we asked contributor Jonathan Fuller to give us two players whose ADP is Too Hot and two players ADPs that are Too Chill.

🥵 DeAndre Hopkins (ADP: 75.2)

DeAndre Hopkins will miss the first 6 games of the season to serve a suspension. He will then join an Arizona offense that added more pass-catching talent (Marquise Brown, Trey McBride) than it lost (Christian Kirk). Oh, and Hopkins is entering his age 30 season after missing a significant number of games for the first time in his career last year. Despite all of this, he is currently the WR37 on Underdog with a 6th round ADP. That will need to cool off significantly before I am willing to take the plunge on Hopkins in drafts.

🥵 Skyy Moore (ADP: 82.7)

I write this at great personal and professional risk (editor's note: watch it, Jonathan) but Skyy Moore is being drafted as though he is guaranteed a significant target share in the Kansas City offense. The upside is certainly there, but Moore faces stiff target competition from the likes of Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, MVS, and Mecole Hardman.

On top of that, he is transitioning from a non-Power 5 conference to the NFL, which can be difficult even for players who go on to have great pro careers. While it is definitely within his range of outcomes to deliver on his WR39 ADP, there are just too many players going after him in drafts that offer a better risk/reward tradeoff.

🥶 Miles Sanders (ADP: 78.2)

Miles Sanders has been very effective on a per-touch basis throughout his NFL career but has disappointed relative to his draft cost due to poor injury and touchdown luck. The Eagles did not add any significant pieces to their backfield, yet Sanders is currently being drafted as the RB26 on Underdog. When healthy, he is a good bet to see 15 touches per week in an Eagles offense that should be better than last year. I love getting Sanders as my RB2 and will be happy to continue drafting him 1-2 rounds higher than where he currently goes. I do expect his ADP to continue to rise though, so I would suggest prioritizing him in your early drafts whenever possible.

🥶 Chase Claypool (ADP 109.9)

Most people think of Chase Claypool’s rookie season as a huge breakout and his second year as a massive disappointment. This narrative is almost entirely down to two things: TD luck and draft capital. Claypool actually had more total yards in his second season, but his TDs fell from 11 to 2. He was also significantly more expensive in drafts going into last year.

I believe the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction, as he is currently being drafted as the WR52 on Underdog. With JuJu gone and a possible upgrade to last year’s noodle-armed Ben Roethlisberger at QB, I believe Claypool is poised to massively outperform his 9th round ADP.

🚑 Uh oh, is Michael Thomas still not ready? Dennis Allen makes it sound like he isn't.

📅 An update on the Deebo Samuel saga. June 14th will be a key date to watch.

🕯️ The Kaepernick return heats up. Jeremy Fowler has some notes on his workout with the Raiders yesterday.

🛏️ How smooth is Saints rookie WR Chris Olave? Let Jameis Winston tell ya.

💥"Of the 49ers rookies, who has the best chance to play a lot?" Here's one of your best sleeper selections in drafts right now.

The NFL offseason is all about hope. In this series, our contributors share the bull case for their favorite teams and players. Today, Jake Trowbridge shares why Trevor Lawrence is ready to take a second-year leap…

Addition by subtraction. That math should lead Trevor Lawrence to a more fruitful fantasy season in 2022. The albatross of Urban Meyer–along with his bizarre “coaching” style–has been lifted from Lawrence’s neck and thrown back to sea. It’s hard to overstate how much dropping the Urban baggage could boost the sophomore QB’s confidence.

Meyer was replaced with Doug Pederson, a competent head coach who loves to throw the ball. During his five years as HC of the Eagles, Pederson’s offenses ranked inside the Top 10 for pass attempts all but once.

With the team bringing in Christian Kirk in free agency, he now has four WRs who ranked inside the Top 40 last year in Average Depth of Target, an area that Lawrence desperately needs to improve.

Perhaps most important is the return of Lawrence’s college teammate (and 2021 1st round pick) Travis Etienne to the backfield. Etienne notched more than 1,000 yards receiving during his final two seasons at Clemson, thanks to his unmatched ability to create yards after the catch (he led all college RBs in 2020). Etienne is on track to return to full health following the Lisfranc injury that kept him sidelined all of 2021.

Add in a highly-athletic TE to work the middle of the field (Evan Engram) and a five-time Pro Bowler at right guard, and this new Jaguars’ offense should give the young QB enough breathing room to showcase the skills that had many calling him a “generational talent” just a year ago.

We'll be off for the long weekend, but back on Tuesday morning with some more best ball goodness. Enjoy the holiday.