🕵️ 2 Key Backfield Mysteries To Solve

Your favorite fantasy analyst is in the best shape of their life, per sources…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Ryse:

If there is one thing fantasy drafters crave, it’s backfield clarity.

You know this is true when two of the biggest ADP risers across all positions over the past month are backup running backs—Jaylen Warren and Jerome Ford.

Their rise makes sense, though. When you get past pick 140 in current Underdog drafts, there is very little certainty remaining on the board. And when it comes to the RB position, we know how valuable a true handcuff RB can be when it comes to contingent upside.

Over the next two months, we’ll continue to get more and more clarity on backfield situations across the league, and this will inevitably result in ADP risers as the market becomes more confident.

We’re seeing it play out right now with the Vikings backfield post-Dalvin Cook, and, to a lesser extent, with the Patriots after they released James Robinson.

With that in mind, there are two backfields in particular that I’m watching like a hawk…

🧐 Cowboys RB2

We know how valuable the RB2 in Dallas can be. Last year Tony Pollard was the dictionary definition of “league winner” despite chopping up carries with Zeke.

But things are much different in 2023, where Pollard goes off the board at pick 22, and the rest of the Dallas backs—Deuce Vaughn, Malik Davis, and Ronald Jones—go undrafted in most drafts.

Even though virtually every fantasy player would like to cheaply draft the RB2 on Dallas, the market is collectively shrugging its shoulders and nah-waving the Cowboys’ RB2 because of a lack of clarity.

The early lean: Per The Athletic’s Jon Machota, the current favorite is Davis, but don’t rule out the rookie:

🧐 Bengals RB2

Similar to Dallas, last year the Bengals RB2, Samaje Perine, surged down the stretch with a couple of big games that positioned him as a key late-round selection on a lot of winning teams.

This year the market has no clue how to rank the backup RBs in Cincinnati—the rookie Chase Brown and veterans Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans.

This backup room is arguably even more intriguing than the Cowboys’ room because there is still a chance Joe Mixon gets suspended.

The early lean: Williams has been getting most of the reps with the second team offense at camp, but trusted Bengals reporters like what they’ve been seeing from Brown:

So what’s the move?

According to the Best Ball Hub, I’ve sprinkled in Davis on two teams and Williams on one, but I’m waiting for more clarity before going in harder.

Once we get any kind of confirmation, look for a Cowboys and Bengals RB to shoot up multiple rounds in ADP…

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👮 Uh oh, Tyreek Hill is in trouble…again.

💍 Kadarius Toney has a message for the Giants. Bling bling.

🗽 A sleeper WR in New York. A familiar name in a new offense.

🤝 Could this two-down plodder catch passes in 2023? Sounds like it.

⛑️ How do we feel about these Lions helmets? A little too sterile for my tastes.

🚑️ Will Brock Purdy be ready for opening day? Adam Schefter weighs in.

🚀 Don’t ignore these WRs. They’re way too cheap.

☣️ Top 5 most toxic NFL fan bases. Lots to choose from.

Roster construction is a multi-faceted topic that we often overcomplicate. What’s better? A 2-6-7-3 build or a 3-5-8-2? Should I take my Week 17 correlation stack or address another position of need in the later rounds? The answer to these questions is everyone’s least favorite: it depends. Luckily Dwain is here to break it all down…

QUARTERBACK

💼 Supply and Demand

QBs are going earlier than ever on Underdog. The prices have cooled some lately, but the top eight are still going 16.3 spots ahead of 2022 on average.

However, drafters do eventually turn their attention to other needs – from QB9 to QB30, the position is only up 1.6 spots year over year.

Additionally, there is a sweet spot from QB9 to QB14 where the position is actually down in price (- 5.0), creating a sweet spot for value on names like Deshaun Watson, Tua Tagovailoa, Anthony Richardson, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins and Daniel Jones.

🏈 QB Strategy Overview

We want exposure to the elite QBs, but the opportunity costs are significant at the end of Round 2 and in early Round 3. Given these factors, I am only grabbing the elite QBs when they fall past ADP – even if I have already set up the stack with my first-round pick (i.e., Travis Kelce and Mahomes).

When the value doesn’t fall to us on the top three QBs, there are multiple easy pivots, so there is no need to panic. Just breathe and continue reading.

🏗️ Building Pillars – Values

🎯 Lamar Jackson | Round 3

There is a lot to like about Jackson. First, we know he has the ability to challenge for the No. 1 scoring QB title. Only Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts scored more points per dropback in 2022.

Second, he might be playing with his best weapons ever. The Ravens added Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr., plus get Rashod Bateman back.

Third, the opportunity costs are far more palatable at the end of Round 3. Once the high-end RBs and Mark Andrews are off the board, Jackson becomes a primary target as the WR tier flattens.

Jackson is by far my most rostered QB over the first three rounds of drafts at 12%

Pro tip: I have had luck taking Andrews ahead of Jackson and getting the QB to fall back to me in Round 4. I have stacked the two in 25% of my drafts.

🎯 Deshaun Watson | Round 7

Watson is my most drafted QB for three reasons.

1. His fantasy production has been good every year except in 2022

2. He is underpriced with a Round 7 ADP

3. There are plenty of stacking options

If you are looking for an option after Round 6 with the best chance to make the elite-QB drafters pay, Watson is at the top of the list.

The Browns made adding weapons for Watson their No. 1 offseason priority despite having limited assets (due to the trade for Watson). They secured Elijah Moore via trade and used their first pick in the draft (Round 3) on Cedric Tillman. The rumor is the Browns are looking to open things up on offense, and their offseason moves back that notion up.

🥉 Honorable Mentions

Geno Smith | Round 10 – Smith is my third-highest rostered QB at 14% and offers plenty of stack potential. He was the QB5 overall last year but goes off the board as the QB15. My head hurts.

Aaron Rodgers | Round 11 – In 2021 and 2022, the veteran QB delivered 24.5 and 21.0 points per game. QBs are playing longer than ever, and Rodgers hasn’t lost his fastball – he is one of the few options after Round 10 with demonstrated upside to help offset the elite options.

Russell Wilson | Round 11 – Wilson is my second-highest rostered QB at 16%. Oddsmakers see Denver as a vastly improved unit despite Wilson’s bad 2022. It makes sense to lean into the larger body of work with the addition of Sean Payton – especially at this ADP.

📓 Draft Capital Guidelines

Drafted QB1 by Round 7

• Draft like you nailed your QB1 selection – you paid big, let them earn it

• Don’t draft a QB2 until Round 11 at the earliest and be willing to wait longer

• Don’t draft three QBs unless your QB2 isn’t guaranteed a starting role

Drafted QB1 after Round 7

• Draft two QBs between Rounds 8 and 12 to offset the elite QB builds

• If you only end up with one QB between Rounds 8 and 12, consider a three-QB build – especially if you can stack all three options with pass catchers

• Pro tip: Plan accordingly – you can’t have a glaring hole at RB/WR because the WR cliff hits in Round 9 and upside RBs are the bee’s knees in Rounds 8 to 11. If you must sacrifice, do it at TE, where you are more likely to make it up later with volume

Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams over the next two months. Let’s take a look at the Rams, who enter the year with plenty of question marks…

🏈 RBs

• Cam Akers (Ian’s RB19)

• Zach Evans (RB69)

• Kyren Williams (RB79)

• Sony Michel (RB101)

Akers’ 2022 campaign consisted of porous usage, trade rumors … and a surprising breakout during the final six weeks of the season.

• Week 13: 17-60-2 rushing, 1-0-0 receiving, 72% snaps

• Week 14: 12-42-1 rushing, 1-1-0 receiving, 42%

• Week 15: 12-65-0 rushing, 3-35-0 receiving, 76%

• Week 16: 23-118-3 rushing, 2-29-0 receiving, 75%

• Week 17: 19-123-0 rushing, 1-10-0 receiving, 78%

• Week 18: 21-104-0 rushing, 3-24-0 receiving, 100%

Overall, Akers worked as the PPR RB4 during this six-week stretch.

The 24-year-old back has had his lows over the years; just realize Akers has now demonstrated legit RB1 upside on the back of a true every-down role down the stretch of both 2020 and 2022.

This didn’t look like a man hindered by a torn Achilles by the end of last season. He finished the year with PFF’s 20th-highest Elusive Rating (56.7) among 42 qualified backs ahead of guys like Miles Sanders (55.1), Alvin Kamara (47.6) and Christian McCaffrey (47.6).

McVay added fuel to the fire recently, stating Akers is going to be a “huge part” of the Rams and a “central figure” in the offense.

Yes, fantasy managers have been burned here before and should proceed with caution.

Also yes, both of Aker’s primary competitors from last season in Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown are free agents, and the only additions over the offseason have been sixth-round pick Zach Evans and recent depth acquisition, Sony Michel.

Paying much mind to the 215th overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft normally wouldn’t be advised, although the Rams did feel the need to trade up 37 spots in order to acquire the former TCU and Ole Miss product.

The Athletic’s Dane Brugler had the following to say about Evans in his ever-excellent “The Beast”:

McVay noted this offseason that Evans’ skill set complements both Akers and scat back Kyren Williams, but there’s a solid 15-plus pound difference between the former and latter back compared to the presumed starter.

Ultimately, Akers deserves to be prioritized in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts; he’s an arbitrage version of Najee Harris who is going literally twice as early; the Steelers and Rams are two of very few offenses who have been willing to leave their RBs on the field for nearly the entire game.

The RB23 is available after the first 40 WRs; the only reason I haven’t drafted more of Akers this offseason is because Giants’ TE Darren Waller and Browns’ QB Deshaun Watson are also available in the same range.

Evans is a fine late-round dart throw who might just be one injury away from being the most fantasy-friendly RB in this backfield. Of course, this RB group essentially failed to enable a single consistent fantasy stud until December last year, so don’t get too carried away with the former five-star recruit (by the way, Akers was a five-star back in the day too).

The decision to sign Michel can’t be ignored – he did rack up 229 touches for this team back in 2021 after all – that said he took a clear backseat behind the likes of Akers and Henderson down the playoff stretch and struggled to make much of anything happen in 2022.

If anything, the presence of Michel is more of a hindrance to the breakout potential of Evans and Williams than a hindrance to Akers. The fact that the team’s only incoming free agent competition is a 28-year-old veteran who only averaged 2.9 yards per carry with the Chargers last season adds more credence to the idea that Akers might not be leaving the field too often in 2023.

PLUS, you can watch or listen to Ian & Dwain breaking down the whole Rams team.