TNF deserves Baker Mayfield and Baker Mayfield deserves TNF...
- WRs set to return & new QBs
- Week 14: Rankings & Tiers
- An update on the Seahawks backfield
- TNF: Fantasy & Betting Picks
- Bets from the group chat: Adams
- It's 12/8. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
This is the final week before the fantasy playoffs start in most leagues, so let's roll up our sleeves and fight for those byes and final spots...
🙌 2 Important WRs return to practice
We got good news yesterday on two AFC West WRs as both Mike Williams (ankle) and Kadarius Toney (hamstring) returned to practice on Wednesday.
Williams hasn't played since Week 7 against the Seahawks and would provide a big boost for the Chargers, who still have a fringe chance at making the playoffs. Their SNF game against the Dolphins has shootout potential (52-point over/under), so let's hope he progresses well throughout the week.
Similarly, Toney's return would be a big boost for a Chief's team that has yet to have anyone emerge as a legitimate playmaker behind Travis Kelce. They'll have no problem vs. the Broncos with or without Toney in Week 15, but Toney could tilt matchups when they matter the most down the stretch (Week 15 @HOU, Week 16 vs. SEA, and Week 17 vs. DEN).
Fresh faces at QB
We'll be seeing potentially 4 new signal callers in Week 14:
- Tyler Huntley will get the start at QB for the Ravens vs. the Steelers. As for all the new starters, he's the only one on the streaming radar. We have him ranked as a mid-range QB2 if you're in a pinch.
- We'll get to see our first full start from Brock Purdy vs. the Bucs on Sunday afternoon. I'm not chomping at the bit to start him, but a 37 point total for a game with this much weaponry still seems too low to me.
Week 13 production share after Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury ⬇️
— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Dec 7, 2022
- Ok, technically this isn't a fresh face. The Texans are instead shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic and will go back to Davis Mills this week after a failed romp with Kyle Allen.
- The Rams continue to tease us with Baker Mayfield tonight. It seems unlikely he starts, but who knows...
Sean McVay said he leans toward Baker Mayfield being active against the Raiders tomorrow night. McVay said it would be an unprecedented turnaround for Mayfield to play, but he has no doubt the QB could do it.
— Sarah Barshop (@sarahbarshop)
Dec 7, 2022
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🥇 Tier 1 – Joe Mixon
Mixon returned to practice on Wednesday and is out of concussion protocol and will regain the starting RB role.
The veteran RB’s efficiency has been lackluster this season. Out of 52 backs with at least 60 attempts, he ranks 44th in missed tackles forced (0.11), 49th in average yards after contact (2.40), 41st in 10-plus-yard attempts (7.6%) and 31st in PFF rush grade (74.9).
While those numbers aren’t great, Mixon has a good shot at getting things on track this weekend against a Browns defense with the second-worst PFF run defense (34.4). Cleveland allows 128 yards and 1.3 TDs per game in non-overtime play.
Cincinnati has targeted their starting running back on 25%, 14%, 17% and 23% of passes in the last four games. Ja’Marr Chase was out until last week, so that is a factor, but we could see Mixon with more passing-game work than initially anticipated.
Bengals are near-TD favorites and carry a top-10 team total while also converting their drives into TDs at the fourth-highest rate (29%) Look for Mixon to get into the endzone at least once this weekend.
Mixon is a top-eight option, ranking well ahead of expert consensus in Week 14.
🥈 Tier 2 – James Conner
Conner has RB19, RB3, RB15 and RB4 finishes since returning to the lineup in Week 9. During that stretch, his utilization profile has transformed to bellcow status.
The 27-year old back averages 17.7 points per game this season when he eclipses the 70%-snap share. If you extend back to 2021 with the same threshold, he averages 21.7.
The Patriots are a solid run defense, but they aren’t impenetrable, allowing 109 yards per game in non-overtime play. We should have a close contest; teams average 26 rushing attempts against New England.
Since his return, Conner sees four targets per game, making a 25-touch outing possible.
Volume is king, making Conner a borderline RB1 who ranks four spots ahead of industry consensus.
🥉Tier 3 – Garrett Wilson
Wilson has registered a 27% target share or better in three of his last four games and has WR14, WR76, WR4 and WR9 finishes.
The rookie WR now ranks 16th in YPRR (2.06) and TPRR (23%) on the season. Over the last two games with Mike White at QB, Wilson has 22 targets, 13 receptions, 257 yards and two TDs receiving.
The Bills have the No. 7 PFF coverage grade (73.2) on the season but rank 17th over the last four games. Quality receivers have been a problem during that stretch:
- Amon-Ra St. Brown in Week 12: 10-128-1
- Amari Cooper in Week 11: 8-113-2
- Justin Jefferson in Week 10: 10-193-1
Wilson is pushing for top-12 status, ranking as the WR15. He comes in three spots ahead of expert consensus.
Check out all of the Fantasy Life Rankings!
🤫 The fantasy playoffs cheat sheet. The best matchups for each position.
🚑 An update on the Seahawks backfield. Keep an eye on this one.
🎱 Consult the Magic 8 ball. Signs point to yes.
😕 A 5-7 team is favored over a 10-2 team? Wtf.
📽️ The film watcher vs. stat people debate rages on. An NFL player weighs in.
🐆 The best WRs against man and zone coverage. One player breaks the chart.
📉 A big loss for the Bills' defense. Ouch.
🛶 The star WR who is also good at TikTok. We miss you.
⏰ Time is ticking for this RB. And it could get worse.
Fans of the movie Major League will remember the scene where the manager (Lou Brown) decides to peel a section of clothing off a cardboard cutout of their villainous owner every time they win, in an attempt to motivate the team. One can only think the Las Vegas Raiders may be up to something similar right now (although let’s pray it’s not with Mark Davis) as they enter this week on a season-best three-game win streak and now sit just two games behind the New York Jets, who are currently occupying the last wildcard spot.
Vegas could easily be the team currently in that playoff spot right now, but some early season blunders (who can forget blowing a 20-0 lead against Arizona?) have cost them dearly. The last two weeks has seen this team look decidedly superior to the one we saw at the start of the year and much of the credit can be laid at the feet of Josh Jacobs, who enters this game having produced 482 yards rushing (160.66 yards per game) over his last three starts.
The Rams have a lot of issues right now, but Jacobs will be facing off this week against one of the tougher rush defenses in the NFL. The Rams rank fifth in defensive rush DVOA and have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing RBs as well. It’ll be an interesting battle in the trenches this Thursday, but should be tilted in Jacobs’ favor given the amount of injuries the Rams are currently facing. Aaron Donald (non-participant on Monday) is almost certainly out for this week and the Rams also have Linebackers Travin Howard (hip) and Terrell Lewis (back) on the injury report.
The early projections for Week 13 on Fantasy Life have Jacobs as the clear leader in rush yards for the week and aren’t indicating a slowdown. Considering the Rams have produced just 4.7 yards per play on offense the last three weeks, you have to think that eventually their defense (or what’s left of it) wears down and Jacobs grabs some big chunk gains late in the game. Expect another big night from the budding fantasy star and soon-to-be free agent whose future contract size is growing with each passing week.
Even if the Rams hold up Jacobs, the Raiders can always turn to Davante Adams in this spot, who is taking on a beleaguered secondary that has now allowed the second-most receptions and seventh-most TDs to opposing WRs this year. The Rams rank sixth-last in defensive pass DVOA and make for a great match-up for Adams. Volume could be an issue, as Los Angeles has averaged just 16.16 points the last six weeks and Vegas would almost certainly not mind if Derek Carr only had to drop back 20-25 times in this game.
On the other side of the ball, the guessing game of who will start at QB for the Rams continues. John Wolford (who missed Monday’s practice) took four sacks and was hit hard numerous times against the Seahawks. If he can’t play, Bryce Perkins would start. Perkins played the entire game against Kansas City and averaged just 4.34 yards per pass attempt, throwing for 100 yards and completing 13 of 23 passes. Perkins’ best asset is his legs and he did compile 44-yards on the ground against the Chiefs. The Raiders have allowed six different QBs to rush for 20-yards or more this year and allowed four rushing TDs to the position as well. Stylistically, Perkins may actually be the tougher match-up for Vegas but he would also kill a lot of the fantasy value for the remaining Rams WRs (and potentially make them all good under targets for prop betting).
Speaking of Rams WRs, keep an eye on Van Jefferson down the stretch for daily fantasy and betting purposes. Jefferson was a high draft pick who produced 16.0 yards per catch last year and is now playing in an every down role - and essentially acting as the team’s de facto number one WR. He’ll be tied to poor QB play the rest of the year but could benefit from some garbage time down the stretch or matchups against other cellar-dwelling teams.
The Rams are a well coached team and will likely prove somewhat pesky this week, as they did last week against Seattle. The Raiders should take care of business, but the under on what feels like a big total at 44.5 may be the better way to play this game. Don’t expect a ton of points from LA.
While the whole world freaks out that a 10-2 team is underdogs against a 5-7 team, this line has continued to climb this week, going from Vikings -3 on Sunday morning to Lions -2.5 where we stand today.
While a 5.5-point line movement is massive, as long as the Lions are under less than 3-point favorites, I have an interest. They rank 7th with Amon-Ra St. Brown healthy offensively and take on a Vikings defense that is dead last in passing yards allowed.
The Vikings' defense has been abysmal. Last week despite the win, the Jets averaged 41.7 yards per drive compared to the Vikings' 27.2 yards. The Vikings have been outgained this season by 754 yards, a number that screams regression. I will be fading the public who will love the 10-2 underdog Vikings on the road this week.
Davante Adams has proven that he was not a product of Aaron Rodgers and that it does not matter who is throwing him the ball; he will dominate.
He leads the lead in targets, target share, and air yards while participating in 100% of routes in all but three games. Since week 9, with Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow sidelined, Adams averaged 13 targets and 132.8 receiving yards in the last five weeks.
We have Adams projected for 100 receiving yards, a 9% edge against his player pro, and for good reason. While Josh Jacobs has been equally impressive as Adams this season, his matchup is much tougher against the Rams, who allowed the 4th lowest yards per carry, 5th fewest rushing yards, and teams pass against them at the 9th highest rate.
Weeks as a top-10 PPR RB this season:
Joe Mixon: 2
Samaje Perine: 3
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz)
Dec 6, 2022
@Ihartitz illegal tweet
— Andy Holloway (@andyholloway)
Dec 7, 2022