🙌 2 Fantasy Superstars Return

Sean McVay must be giggling and kicking his feet…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Buffalo Wild Wings:

It never fails to amaze me how quickly things change in the NFL.

One moment, Jonathan Taylor is exiting Jim Irsay’s bus ready to file for divorce.

The next moment (ok, well a few moments later), Taylor and the Colts are reaching an agreement on a three-year, $42 million contract extension that includes $26.5 million guaranteed.

Let’s put aside the absurdity of Jim Irsay waiting this long to capitulate (apparently the spirit and the heart needed to be mended first) and instead focus our attention on what this means for fantasy.

🤔 Can you start Jonathan Taylor this week?

If you’ve been sitting on Taylor this long, you are probably anxious to start him, but this is different than the Cooper Kupp situation (more on him below in the Morning Download) where the team is telling us he won’t be limited.

In fact, the team is explicitly telling us he’ll be eased back in:

In our rankings roundtable, Dwain outlined three different scenarios for how this could play out. Based on Russini’s report above, this feels like the rhetoric surrounding Breece Hall’s usage at the beginning of the year.

Of the scenarios Dwain laid out, I think #1 (Moss is the lead back) or #2 (Split backfield) are the most likely outcomes. These scenarios give him a projection range from 8-14 points.

Further complicating the projection is the fact that the Colts face a stout Titans run defense that most teams have smartly elected to attack through the air.

If you are in a pinch, you can certainly fire up JT as a fringe RB2 or upside FLEX option, but go into it with open eyes.

📆 What about rest of the season, though?

The real excitement surrounding Taylor’s return revolves around his rest-of-season value.

As Matthew notes here, Taylor’s talent coupled with a competent coaching staff who has been willing to give Zack Moss a bellcow workload points to monster upside down the stretch.

If you’re able to weather the storm through this workload ramp-up period, there’s a very good chance Taylor will bring home fantasy titles:

• Week 15: home vs. Steelers

• Week 16: @ the Falcons in the dome

• Week 17: home vs. the Raiders

And if you have Moss and you are reading this? I’m sorry…it’s too late.

🛠️ Everything you need for Week 5

Read on for more info in the Morning Download on Kupp, the messy Lions situation, and Tee Higgins.

For everything else you need for Week 5—including our Inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates—you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.

See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:

There’s always a flurry of overnight news to process on Sunday mornings. Today, Cooterdoodle is here to catch you up on the most important updates to guide your lineup decisions today…

🤕 Monitor the Lions’ Offense

It looks like you’ll need to monitor Matthew Berry’s Ride-or-Die, Amon-Ra St. Brown, before kickoff. But considering he hasn’t practiced with the team for over a week, all signs point to Out.

Unfortunately for DET, the Sun God isn’t the only Lion worth monitoring. Along with ASRB’s Doubtful designation, Jahmyr Gibbs was downgraded to doubtful yesterday.

On the good news front, Jameson Williams will return this week from his suspension. He is expected to be limited, however:

Detroit faces the 0-4 Panthers who are allowing 27 points per game to opposing teams. Here’s a quick breakdown of notable rushing stats against Carolina so far this season (ruined by the Justin Jefferson show in Week 4):

• Week 1: Tyler Allgeier - 75 yards, 2 TDs

• Week 2: Tony Jones Jr. - 34 yards 2 TDs

• Week 3: Kenneth Walker - 97 yards, 2 TDs

This is likely another fun week for David Montgomery managers, with some Sam LaPorta goodness sprinkled in. But if ARSB sits, Williams has a chance to compete with Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond as the next man up.

💪 Cooper Kupp Suits Up

The long-awaited news is here. Cooper Kupp has officially been activated off of IR and will play against the Eagles.

It gets even better, though:

To call this 2023 Rams offense ‘high-powered’ would be an understatement.

They’ve found ways for Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua to consistently produce. The addition of Kupp may threaten some of their workload, but LA and PHI are offenses poised for some fun back-and-forth scoring on Sunday.

I don’t know about you, but I’m ready for Kupp to remind us why we drafted him as early as we did in August. Let all the Rams cook. Let all the Rams eat. I’ll get the dishes.

❌ A Bengal Ruled Out

While many have been speculating about the Bengals’ health on offense, it was Tee Higgins who was officially ruled out on Saturday.

Higgins scored twice in Week 1, which is more than we can say for Ja’Marr Chase or Tyler Boyd… in any week this season. Facing Arizona, the Bengals are favored to win. But with the way things have looked so far, I’m not holding my breath.

Cincinnati hasn’t looked quite like themselves these first four weeks. But as the Bengals continue to find their footing, Joe Burrow’s calf injury is the elephant in the room. Here’s to hoping Burrow and co. can finally get on track in Week 5.

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Welcome to Week 5 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where Geoff elicits as much information as he can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. It’s really a selfish endeavor as he’ll probably be using some of their plays to offset his own losers.

For Week 5’s bets, I’ve focused on a couple of key spots for prop betting by looking at some potentially undervalued players that have big breakout opportunities.

These are both based on bets and player props I’ve made in our Free Bet Tracker this week.

However, on top of the “regular” props I’ve posted, for this article, I’ve also put together some more degenerate (better?) ways to play these situations, as well… if you’re into that kind of thing (you are).

😈 The Breece Hall “Payback” game

• Over 16.5 longest rush (-105, BetMGM)

• 100+ yards rushing “Milestone” (+390, BetMGM)

• SGP: 90+ rush yards/2+ TDs (+2000, BetMGM)

Payback is a great movie. Mel Gibson taking on an entire Mob-fortified building simply over the principle of being shorted a “mere” $70,000 is a great premise (OK, he was nearly killed by the same people at the start of the movie but that’s neither here nor there).

This week feels like Hall’s payback moment.

While he can’t put the blame on any specific person for his unfortunate injury – it was a very ordinary play – I’m also quite sure the irony of the situation this week (same team, same stadium where he suffered the injury) has not been lost on him.

Anyways, back to the bets. I love Hall’s longest rush rush prop which is set at an exceedingly low 16.5 yards. He’s gone over this mark now in eight of his last 11 games and that stretch includes:

• A game against Denver last year where he took 4 carries before tearing his ACL.

• Four other games where he took 8 or fewer carries.

However, while single-play props are fine, this is a special player we are talking about and a historically bad defense.

In short, playing for a monster day from Hall, on multiple angles, is very warranted.

We can get Hall to go for 100+ yards on BetMGM’s Milestone lines at +390, which I like.

However, much like Mel Gibson’s Payback character of Porter, a part of me doesn’t think that Hall will necessarily be satisfied with “just” 100 yards. That’s why we I went to the same game parlay builder and put this together. The Payback special.

If this hits, expect a “Lethal Weapon” SGP in this section for Week 6.

🎪 The Greatest Show on Turf. Part Deux

• Rams +4.5 (-115, BetMGM)

• Matthew Stafford 300+ yards (+147, BetMGM)

• SGP (+10000, BetMGM)

  • Rams +4.5

  • Over 50.5

  • Stafford over 329.5

  • Nucua over 69.5 rec. yards

  • Kupp over 69.5 rec. yards

  • Swift over 89.5 rush yards

  • Swift anytime TD

The closer we get to kickoff, the more I like the Rams.

They are getting their heart and soul back in Cooper Kupp and may still be underrated by the overall marketplace who had this now 2-2 team pegged with a 6.5 win total to start the year.

The Rams are 18-10 SU (straight up) with Kupp in the lineup since 2021 (in games he’s started and finished) and they would be adding him to an improved WR arsenal which now also includes star rookie Puka Nucua.

The Eagles’ defensive line remains stout but they were lucky in many ways to escape with wins in three of their four games – and needed overtime to finish off what Justin Fields exposed as a very overrated Commanders side.

Trend-wise, betting against Jalen Hurts on the road has been a solid proposition as he enters this week just 8-13 ATS in away games for his career.

I already played the Rams at +4.5 early in the week but am looking at more ways to get exposure to the overall upside of their players in this game, against what has been a very lethargic Eagles defense to date.

Have you not heard the news?! Underdog has upped their 100% deposit match to $500 (!!) for a limited time! You also get a mystery Pick’em special when you sign up. Speaking of Pick’em plays, Geoff has some he’s hammering for Week 5…

🚁 The RB going for 100+ and 2TDs. The chopper has spoken.

🚑️ No Saquon Barkley again? So much for that “day-to-day” ankle sprain.

🍑 Is the tushy pushy coming to an end? An update on the “brotherly shove.”

💰 Should we listen to the “wisdom of the crowd” when betting? Probably not, but let’s check it out.

🍰 Just like there’s always room for dessert…there’s always room for last-minute bets.

🔨 Looking for more bets? Psh, we know you are. Six Week 5 bets to hammer.

🤏 Justin Jefferson got fined for this?! Lol c’mon.

🐻 Bad news for the Bears. Their RB depth chart is dangerously thin.

🤣 A Le’Veon Bell throwback. Always appreciated his patience.

🧰 Stash the rookie in Denver. Javonte Williams is a true game-time decision.

Finding the right player stacks can be the key to building a profitable roster in DFS. If you want to get the jump on this weekend, James McCool from Paydirt DFS has the data to guide you for Week 5.

🦅 Popular option: Philadelphia Eagles

✍️ Facts:

• The Eagles have not looked especially sharp, being taken to OT by WAS in week 4, and yet Jalen Hurts is still top 10 overall in PPR points per game at 21.6, while A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith are both top 20 WRs.

• While the Eagles have not played at a significant pace this year, they face a Rams team that has eclipsed 70 plays in regulation in three of their four games, a stat that can show that PHI may have to up the pace to keep up in scoring.

• While D’Andre Swift is still splitting reps with Kenneth Gainwell, he’s been by far the more productive back, and boasts strong utilization with 47% route participation and a 9% target share, making him useful in the passing attack for the Eagles.

📊 Stack info (DraftKings)

💰 Salary and projections:

• Combo 1 (Jalen Hurts/A.J. Brown/DeVonta Smith): Has the highest Salary of $23,400 with the most promising Median score of 55.89.

• Combo 2 (Jalen Hurts/A.J. Brown/Dallas Goedert): Priced at $20,200 with a Median score of 51.79.

• Combo 3 (Jalen Hurts/DeVonta Smith/Dallas Goedert): The most budget-friendly choice at $19,600, yet with a lower Median score of 46.51.

Though all combos have relatively close efficiency rates, Combo 2 slightly stands out as the best value for money.

The combo of Brown and Goedert as stack partners with Hurts saves around $3,000 from the Brown/Smith pairing and still projects above 50 PPR points.

🎲 Finish percentiles

• Combo 1 (Jalen Hurts/A.J. Brown/DeVonta Smith): Leading with 13.76% Top Finish, 44.88% Top 5 Finish, and a solid 73.28% 2x%.

• Combo 2 (Jalen Hurts/A.J. Brown/Dallas Goedert): Lower top finishing potential (7.40% Top Finish) but a higher 2x% of 78.12% and a significant 1.40% in 4x%.

• Combo 3 (Jalen Hurts/DeVonta Smith/Dallas Goedert): Represents the riskiest option with the lowest probabilities in most categories.

📈 Combo 1: High Salary, Balanced Risk and Reward

This combination offers a balanced play with good upside and a robust 2x% performance.

It's suitable for those looking for stability with potential top finishes.

🧐 Combo 2: Moderate Salary, Value-Oriented

This middle-ground combination provides great value for its price, as evidenced by its high 2x% and 1.40% in 4x%.

This is an excellent pick for those aiming for a solid score with some upside.

😰 Combo 3: Budget Choice, Higher Risk

Though this is the most affordable option, it comes with inherent risks due to its lower finishing probabilities.

It's a choice for those willing to take on more risk in hopes of a surprising performance.