💎 2 Deep RB Sleepers To Draft Now

Never forget it's pronounced JJ Arthega-Whiteside...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:

The Chiefs and Niners backfields are two of the trickiest riddles in fantasy right now. The lack of certainty can be frustrating, but it means there are edges to be had in drafts if we can anticipate where the touches are headed.

Here are two RBs from those backfields that we need to take seriously in light of recent news:

💎 Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco

Every day we continue to get more indicators that the Kansas City rookie is climbing the depth chart while Ronald Jones is headed in the other direction (and potentially a cut candidate).

Fantasy players have reacted accordingly with Jones going unselected in some recent Underdog drafts I've done. I'm still skeptical Rojo gets cut, but it's time to start giving Pacheco a long look in the late rounds. His ADP could rise quickly if these reports continue.

💎 Niners RB Trey Sermon

Last year's preseason darling turned massive bust has resurfaced once again thanks to a solid training camp and some positive words from Kyle Shanahan. This is one of those backfields where I don't have a strong preference on any of the backups (Sermon, Tyrion Davis-Price, and Jeff Wilson), but I want to be taking stabs on all of them knowing the upside is there.

Starter Eli Mitchell is nursing a hamstring injury, so it's worth getting exposure to these guys now in case it lingers. Sermon is still basically free in drafts.

😴 The rookie TE you shouldn't sleep on. After a solid preseason game, he's back at it at practice. 

📣 Who will be calling the plays in New England? Bill Belichick drops some breadcrumbs.

🚑 The Rams RBs are banged up. This is something to monitor.

🤝 The Eagles and Seahawks complete a trade. Here are the details.

📉 The biggest risers and fallers on Underdog the past week. A couple rookies heading in opposite directions.

🍜 What does George Pickens eat before the game? I would have assumed goat meat.

🔮 20 bold predictions for the 2022 season. Fun read from Shawn Siegele.

Every slot in your fantasy football draft holds some sort of points per game expectation.

Let’s say you’ve made some selections in your draft, and now you’re on the clock with the 50th overall pick. At that draft slot, based on what we’ve seen historically, running backs have typically scored 11.4 PPR points per game. That’s what you should expect from a running back at that spot.

Our goal in fantasy football drafts is to find players who are able to far exceed that expectation.

We want breakouts.

But how can you pinpoint those players? What types of things should you be looking for when finding breakout running backs?

In The Late-Round Draft Guide, I broke up this analysis by studying middle-round running backs (backs selected in Rounds 6 through 9 since 2011) and late-round ones (Rounds 10 to 15).

When it comes to middle-round running backs, you generally should prefer team RB1s to team RB2s. And I’m not talking about a team’s top running back via some random depth chart made by an intern. I’m talking about a team’s top running back by average draft position, or ADP.

Since 2011, team RB1s by ADP were able to exceed their PPR points per game expectation by 3 or more points at a 29.3% rate. For team RB2s, that was just under 17%.

There are times where you should look for team RB2s, but at a high level, team RB1s are better bets.

Moreover, if the team RB1 is coming from an ambiguous backfield, then that’s a win, too. Fantasy managers often shy away from backfield uncertainty, but those are actually the types of situations you should attack. Traditionally, middle-round running backs with backfield teammates who get drafted early don’t bring league-winning upside. Middle-round running backs with more question marks surrounding the team’s backfield situation? Lean into that.

Think about Leonard Fournette last season. He was selected in the middle rounds of your draft alongside teammate Ronald Jones. Had fantasy managers known that Fournette would lead the charge, his ADP wouldn’t have been so low. He then won out, and the rest is history.

And speaking of Fournette, a huge reason his fantasy season was so impactful was because of his pass-catching. That’s another thing you should be targeting in this Round 6 through 9 range – you should be looking for backs whose workloads are heavy on the receiving side.

The middle-round running backs who exceeded ADP expectation by 3 or more points per game since 2011 averaged an attempts per target rate of 4.7. Players from that ADP range who failed to break out were at 7.4.

In other words, these middle-round breakouts saw a higher proportion of their touches come through the air than on the ground.

So, given those three things, who should you be looking to target this year?

One player jumps to mind, and that’s Chase Edmonds.

In a part-time role over the last couple of seasons in Arizona, Edmonds has seen target shares of 13.2% and 12.3%. His per-game target share last season was ninth-best among all running backs who played at least eight games.

And he was a really underrated runner last year, too. Among the 50 running backs with 100 or more carries, Edmonds was second in yards per carry minus his running back teammates’ yards per carry. Meaning that his yards per tote were significantly better than James Conner’s.

And within that group, he was fourth in the percentage of runs that went 10 or more yards and 17th in the percentage of runs that went 20-plus yards.

Miami went after Edmonds in free agency and gave him the most lucrative contract in his backfield. The likelihood that he’s a true bell-cow for them is small, but he could walk into a high target share to go along with a decent number of touches on the ground.

In PPR formats, he’s a nice value.

One edge we can get in our drafts is comparing the Fantasy Life ranks to default rankings on big platforms like ESPN and Sleeper. Today, Sam Wallace shares a QB and RB you should be targeting in drafts.

We have a pair of great rankers at Fantasy Life: Rob Waziak and Matthew Hill.

Compared to ESPN, they’re high on a pair of players. On any fantasy platform that you choose to play on, you’ll notice the “in-house” ADP listed for each player. Many of your league mates might lean on that as a crutch come draft day. Knowing this and following our rankers’ advice, you can exploit this to your own advantage.

(Note: You don’t have to draft these players at the Fantasy Life Rank; you can likely get them at a discount because of their suppressed ADP on ESPN)

📈 Trey Lance (ESPN: QB13; Fantasy Life Rank: QB8)

The Trey Lance era has begun.

After trading a pair of future first-round picks to move up and select him in 2021, the 49ers have officially committed to their QB of the future.

Despite appearing in just 19 games for North Dakota State, Lance has the physical tools to break fantasy football. Standing at 6’4” / 224 lbs, Lance has the arm strength and rushing upside to win your league.

Even with the high investment, Lance took a seat behind QB Jimmy Garoppolo who promptly led them to another Conference Championship.

But his time in San Francisco has come to an end. Probably.

We did get a taste of what Lance can bring to your fantasy lineups. When he played at least 50% of snaps, he averaged more than 10 rushing attempts/game. For some context, over the last 3 seasons, QB Lamar Jackson averaged over 11 rushing attempts/game.

Lance has given us a glimpse that he’ll be more aggressive at pushing the ball down the field. That should help boost both his and his teammates’ fantasy production.

Exceptional play calling, elite offensive weapons, and top-tier athleticism make Lance an intriguing fantasy option.

📈AJ Dillon (ESPN: RB32; Fantasy Life Rank: RB22)

Let’s not kid ourselves – there’s only one Derrick Henry.

But, if you squint really hard and look past the quads, something is really enticing about RB AJ Dillon.

I can comfortably say he is the closest athletic comp to Henry. Dillon posted at least a 92nd percentile mark in the broad jump, vertical jump, freak score, and explosion.

As a sophomore in 2021, he finished as an RB2 with an impressive stat line:

• 221 touches

• 1,116 scrimmage yards

• 7 TDs

Dillon wasn’t just a box score hero. According to PFF, he was the No. 3 ranked RB.

Both Dillon and teammate RB Aaron Jones topped 1,000 scrimmage yards last year. The loss of WR Davante Adams could mean more involvement for Dillon & Jones.

PFF has the Packers defensive line ranked at No. 3. This defense is formidable, which will result in positive game scripts and a potentially slow pace. In the Matt LaFleur era, Green Bay is dead last in seconds/snap.

During Green Bay’s recent Family Night, Dillon received 15 first-team reps to Jones’ 14. That provides a good baseline for what fantasy managers could expect this season.

Season long drafts are just around the corner. In this new series, our contributors will get you prepared from all twelve of the first round draft slots. Today, Eliot shares how to attack a draft from the second pick...

Drafting for the number two spot almost feels like an unfair advantage this fantasy football season. Almost. There is a clear top five this year in Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase. With the second overall pick you can’t mess it up, but I prefer McCaffrey.

The biggest knock on McCaffrey is his health, but there is no denying his talent. In his last 21 healthy games, McCaffrey has finished as a top two overall running back 43% of the time. McCaffrey allows me to apply an effective anchor RB strategy.

With McCaffrey locked in at RB, I am looking to walk away with three receivers and either a top QB or WR with the next four picks . You can draft a combination of Tee Higgins, Tyreek Hill, Michael Pittman, Allen Robinson, JuJu Smith Schuster, Rashod Bateman, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, George Kittle, and Darren Waller. Setting you up for an loaded roster that has positional advantages over your opponent every week.

After setting up your team for dominance, the turn in the 8th and 9th round sets you up perfectly to attack high upside running backs like Chase Edmonds, Rhamondre Stevenson, and James Cook. I want to get two running backs in this tier to play weekly matchups and hope one of these players hits their ceiling.

With McCaffrey at the helm you have set up a balanced team that is loaded with upside and has no roster holes.