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- 10 Fantasy Football Commandments
Put those pencils down, test time is over! Finally, a kickoff that matters. Ah, nothing quite like the real thing. Speaking of which, just because rosters and lineups are set, does not mean our work here is done. So I’ve compiled my 10 Fantasy Football Commandments for players of all skill levels to live by.
These 10 Commandments Are Fantasy Football Musts
1. Honor Thy Studs
Don’t get cute. You wouldn’t believe some of the start/sit questions I’ve seen as a resident fantasy guru. Yes, start Christian McCaffrey even if the Seahawks defend the run well—or Josh Allen under any circumstances short of global catastrophe (and maybe even then).
2. Thou Shalt Not Fall For Preseason Hype
However deranged drafting 100s of teams from the beach made many of us this summer, none of that matters once regular season games begin. Not a single coach or coordinator cares if we shelled out a three-round premium to secure an RB in an obviously shared backfield. Most unknown or obscure players rank that way for a reason. Set realistic, projection-based expectations when setting those initial lineups.
3. I Am The Roster, Your Team; Place No Hobby In Front Of Me
Drafting is fun, but even the world’s best GMs suffer injuries and bye-week headaches. Life gets busy. The best way to avoid falling behind due to scrambled brains is to set a schedule. Especially in this newfangled era of infinite providers with different rules, it’s entirely too easy to miss a critical waiver deadline. Set those alerts!
4. Remove Thy Primetime Players From FLEX Positions
Not just a talent motivator, sending a clear message to the locker room. Jamming Thursday Night players into starting RB or WR slots affords a layer of flexibility in case of late emergency. Keep that FLEX spot open—you never know when a Scheftie-bomb may drop.
5. Thou Shalt Covet Thy Neighbor’s Sleeper
Don’t hesitate to jump on any teams off to a bad start. Desperation sets in quickly, opening opportunities to buy low on your favorite preseason darlings and stashes. Ditto for the players you missed on, who got out of the box slowly.
6. Respect Thine Matchups; Harken Sportsbook Prices
In terms of draft capital, outside the top six or seven most valuable players on your team, any commitment to starting roles goes out the window. A great place to settle close decisions rests with the sportsbook itself. Forced to share well-researched information, don’t be shy about checking providers for prop lines or game totals to settle close calls.
7. Exercise Thine Patience With Rookies
First-year players often get off to slow starts, but that doesn’t lessen their chances for a second-half breakout. Understand rookie trajectory and do everything in your power to avoid dropping a potential league-winning player too soon.
8. Stock Thine Bench With Running Backs
The days of +300-touch tailbacks on every team ended a long time ago. Most NFL clubs, like it or not, will split backfield touches, causing the majority of fantasy GMs to experience some degree of RB panic during the season. Best way to get ahead of all that unnecessary stress? Fill your bench to the brim with anyone projecting for high-value touches if called upon. `
9. Do Ye Trade Diligence
Nothing is worse in all of fantasy football than the tsunami of sour-grape group chat reactions to trade notifications. Nothing. Cries of “Is that all they got?”, “I would’ve paid more!” and “This is why we need vetoes!” grind on my last grain of patience like nails on a chalkboard. Don’t be that person. Be proactive, not reactive—reach out and touch someone.
10. Trust Thy Gut
At the end of the day, fantasy is a game and should be fun (ducks). If you got that funny feeling bubbling deep down inside, screaming this is Sunday’s big sleeper—go for it (providing it’s a top-50 player heading to the bench). Most FLEX plays wind up disappointing anyway.
Thanks for reading, everyone! I had a blast this draft season and look forward to leading the way on our rest-of-season ranks. Also, make sure to check out the Start/Sit column that Coach Gene Clemons and I co-wrote. Hopefully it’ll help you in Week 1. Good luck!
And, of course, tonight … if you do nothing else … tune in to see Pete Overzet—aka the writer of this newsletter—as part of the Friday night game coverage on YouTube. I cannot stress how cool I think this is, how pumped we all are for Pete (Ed. Note: Literally the ENTIRE company — pumped for him), and generally how excited I am to watch it live. Pete is an incredibly talented, supremely nice guy and I am excited to be the search result when people come looking for him tonight. MUAHAHAHAA. Break a leg, Pete! Everyone else … go get those projections (and tune in!!)
It’s kickoff time. Lineup’s set. Now GO HARD.
You’ve been grinding the waiver wire, dodging injury reports, and swapping flex plays until the last second. This isn’t casual—it’s commitment. And when the games start, you’re all in. That’s what it means to GO HARD.
Whether you’re watching every snap or refreshing your app with unhealthy frequency, Mike’s Hard Lemonade is the perfect sidekick for your Sunday sweat. Bold flavor. Big energy. No chill. GO HARD. Then grab a Mike’s. Nobody Makes Lemonade Like Mike’s.
Fantasy
About Last Night …
There were surprises—Javonte Williams (preseason ADP of 111.4) going for 20.4 PPR points—and disappointments—A.J. Brown (1.8 PPR points)—last night, but the biggest takeaway of them all? Football is back.
See below for the top positional performers (PPR) and other nuggets from last night’s action.
What else happened last night?
Fantasy
Week 1 WR-CB Matchups To Target
The Colts-Dolphins game sets up as a sneaky matchup overall, as nobody knows how to feel about either team. Indianapolis is trotting out Daniel Jones. Every week, another story about Tyreek Hill puts the fanbase on edge. But let Chris Allen run this by you.
Josh Downs is the Colts' slot man. Actually, when looking at his usage rates from last year, he might be their man in general.
Target Share (when both active): 25.3% (Downs), 23.2% (Pittman)
Targets per Route Run: 28.9%, 22.0%
Slot Rate: 77.1%, 26.8%
To be fair, Michael Pittman Jr. was dealing with a back injury. It might be skewing his on-field usage and effectiveness. Said another way, this bout might be beneficial to him, too. Anyway, let me introduce you to Jason Marshall Jr.
The Dolphins drafted Marshall in the fifth round to (apparently) be their slot corner. Note: Marshall played a total of 59 snaps covering the interior in college. Recently-acquired S Minkah Fitzpatrick hasn’t spent significant time there in almost two years. There’s already a strong chance Downs will earn enough volume to make his way into the top 24 at the position. With an easy matchup, he’ll be the sneaky FLEX play you’ll need for Week 1.
If you’re looking for another sneaky WR matchup that’s going overlooked …
Fantasy
Smash or Stash?
Is “both” a viable answer? If so, Mark Drumheller has a list of players who are in smash spots in Week 1, and others who might not be in a smash spot, but make for a great early-season stash, starting with some Browns skill-position players …
SMASH: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns
The Cincinnati defense is the Instagram filter of fantasy football. Got a blemish in your game? It won’t show up against Cincinnati. Want to see the best version of a player? Roll the tape against the Bengals.
The game ends and you’re saying to yourself, “Goddamn, THAT was Jerry Jeudy?!?!”
Smashing Cincy’s defense is a no-brainer. Although I also see this as a chance to capitalize on Jeudy’s ability to grossly outperform his projections. A 26-year-old former first-round pick coming off his most productive season (144 targets/1,225 yards) is a green flag, but it’s his late-season spikes, when heavily targeted, that really elevate his ceiling in this matchup.
Jeudy produced 20+ fantasy points twice in his final eight games, including a ridiculous 235-yard performance against Denver. Jeudy’s monster output was good for 36 points in 0.5-point PPR leagues. This isn’t just a WR1 against a bad defense.
What really makes this a smash spot is the Joe Flacco factor.
If history has shown us anything, it’s that Kevin Stefanski allows Cool Joe to sling that thing all over the field. In 2023, the Browns passed on 53.6% of offensive plays (27th in the NFL) before handing the keys to the trusted veteran.
With Flacco under center, the pass rate increased over 8%, making Cleveland one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league during that five-game span.
David Njoku (also smash-worthy) will certainly eat up some targets. But if you are on the fence with Jeudy, I am here to pull you over to the right side. The Browns should be trailing in this one early and often, forcing Flacco to let it rip all over the field for four quarters.
Fantasy
Around the Watercooler
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds.
🐶 Is Joe Burrow headed for a bad matchup in the Dawg Pound? Plus more mismatches.
😳 Matthew summed up Javonte Williams last night. We are so back!
🪓 Do you have the courage to bench these players in your Guillotine Leagues™?
🚑 Week 1 Injury Report is back with the latest updates.
🤯 Speaking of injuries, CMC’s fantasy managers react.
🤔 Too risky to trust? Analyzing Week 1 risk profiles for start/sit purposes.
🎯 Time to target Chig Okonkwo? This Titans coaching staff just might.
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